Donald Trump burst on the Republican presidential field with the remarkable grace of a bull (or should I say an elephant) in a china shop. His comments about immigrants, and then John McCain (to name the two most notable ones) have provided the media with some high-grade fodder and have led to assumptions that he is a)unelectable, b) a buffoon who hasn’t got the first clue about how politics works, c)the vile, pale, nameless thing covered in primordial ooze that the GOP has given birth to, whose parentage begins with the KKK and ends with the Tea Party. Or perhaps a combination of all this.
However, there are signs that the Trump phenomenon is more than a passing fad. Above all, obviously, is the fact that he is continuing to rise in the polls among Republican primary voters. This after the fact that both the media and the GOP establishment went after him with a vengeance when he made the McCain comments. He is now sitting pretty on top of all national GOP primary polls, his nearest competitors (Jeb Bush or Scott Walker, depending on the poll) trailing him by double digits. And even a frontpage article on this website today highlighted the fact that in focus groups Republicans identify with him despite his income bracket. Secondly, by sucking the oxygen out of the room for most GOP presidential contenders Trump may be assuring that the GOP field will shrink dramatically and rapidly even before the first caucus and primary votes are cast. That will be the real test of whether the fact that 26% of GOP primary voters are pro-Trump means that 74% are against him. But I doubt that very seriously.
Here are several things to consider.
1. Even if we assume that Trump will eventually get defeated in the primary and he will a) withdraw or b) launch an independent bid, he has already provided much-needed cover for other GOP candidates who have been able to say things that, in the absence of Trump would be regarded as outrageous and would have put them on the defensive early on. Scott Walker’s twisting in the wind on the subject of gay rights and Jeb!’s declaration that he would deny a path to citizenship to illegal immigrants have gone largely unnoticed by almost anyone. Because Trump is behaving the way he is and saying what he is saying, there is a new license for saying outrageous things among GOP contenders … things which (in the light of the Trump candidacy) may even plausibly be portrayed as moderate, … or sane?
2. Trump’s affinity to Sarah Palin was there for all to see even before he said he would include her in his administration and she reciprocated by coming out and saying people should listen to what he has to say. Palin’s appeal, as Trump’s, is based on the strong anti-intellectual current that is gripping the Republican party with its hysterical denial of climate change, its insistence on battling the theory of evolution and general opposition to people who appear knowledgeable and educated. We expect that Trump will possibly bomb in next week’s debate. He has no experience with debates and, I assume, very little patience with educating himself on possible debate topics. So… when something comes up that he has no clue about, my prediction is that he will respond with stuff that, while he is making it up on the go, will sound fairly reasonable to the willfully ignorant majority of the Republican base.
3. I do not want to discount the fact that Trump is a businessman and a showman, rolled into one. I will leave others to judge the success of his ventures. However, there are two things to remember here if Trump is to approach his presidential run as a business venture. First, he understands that he has to “do what needs to be done” to get the deal, i.e. the nomination and the election. This means that he will mount a serious campaign, he will do the legwork… he may possibly even be induced to learn new stuff so he speaks with more knowledge about, say, the Iran deal. Secondly, as a businessman, Trump is used to hiring experts (say, land developers or tax lawyers), paying them good money, and listening to their advice. If he should land a good campaign strategist (strong possibility if he looks like the primary winner), he may perhaps have the discipline to listen to advice and be managed in order to attain his goal. A folksy no-nonsense image, combined with a campaign that knows what it is doing, could potentially be extremely powerful. He will shed some of the bombast. He will mend relations where they need mending … I can almost see him saying something along the lines of “You know what? I slept on it. And when I woke this morning, I knew I had been wrong. Immigrants are essential to America. People from Mexico work hard… hell I have thousands of Mexican employees… etc. etc.” It may sound ridiculous but precisely because he is not seen as an ideologue he could come up with stuff like this and sound plausible.
4. Precisely because he is not known as an ideologue he may be able to do two things simultaneously. One would be to say things that will reassure the conservative Tea Party base that he is one of them. He is doing that already. Have you been to the Free Republic site recently? They were cheering him on for his comments on McCain… they exult in how he is bringing down the establishment. They do not care about his flip-flops or donations to the Democratic Party. It is very educational to take a peek there. But secondly, he is simultaneously firmly rooted in the business wing of the GOP. Mark my words, this is the only man who can successfully bridge the widening gap between the business (more moderate) wing of the GOP and the crazies on the other side. This is because the adults of the business wing (many of whom probably know him personally) will simply assume that the crazy stuff he has been saying is needed in order to elect him – is needed in order to energize the crazies and get them to the polls. Moreover, he has the image of doing “what needs to be done”… He has the image of someone pragmatic, non-ideological. The business wing will trust him on that. And for the last time ever, perhaps, he may be able to hold together a crumbling GOP coalition.
5. How does a Democratic nominee debate Donald Trump? Whether it is Hillary or someone else? By being knowledgeable and stick to the facts? But what facts? The Donald is sure to become known as a debater who can masterfully pivot and obfuscate. An academic approach to his debating style could be suicidal. A confrontation with him over behavior and/or baseless statements is not likely to end well. If Hillary is the nominee, he may blunder by becoming patronizing (anyone remember Rick Lazio?)… but perhaps not. Trump bombast would be a major major challenge to the eventual Democratic nominee.
6. Last but not least. Because of Trump, the GOP contest commands 80% of all media attention now. If Trump becomes the nominee… how likely is that to change? If Trump becomes the nominee, assume a floor of at least 40 – 45% support (let’s not delude ourselves that GOP voters will not show up). Can the showman, carefully managed by an expert strategist, appear reasonable, likeable, trustworthy in the general? Enough so to attract independent support? Your guess is as good as mine… but I am sure the answer is not a foregone conclusion.
In short, it is time to start taking the Donald seriously.