Our radio program, Democratic Perspective, we first examined the preliminary Iran P-5 plus 1 deal back in April. Commentators were talking about how much better the deal was than was they expected. But no one asked why was the deal so good, I mean a paranoid country allowing a web of intrusive inspections? Add materials reductions and other blocked paths to bomb making, the odds they could ever sneak by making a single bomb must be approaching the astronomical. On one level it was so asymmetrically unfair that it must have been hard for them to swallow so why wouldn’t they try and get around it. Israel, Pakistan, India all had bombs. They were negotiated into the position that they couldn’t get out of. Bragging about this would have to be carefully and indirectly done.
What the agreement meant was that they had actually given up trying to make a nuclear weapon. Now, respectable foreign policy wonks could praise the agreement, but no one respectable could say: “Wow, they have given up.” You would lose all your serious commentator credibility. But when you step back and looked at the forest, rather than examine the trees of inspection that’s what you see, that’s what it meant. It is actually quite clear. Our negotiators know it, they couldn’t exactly crow about it, and they couldn’t admit how confident they were or the accusations would fly. Iran had given in.
Why? It will probably take some time to figure out balance of factors. Sanctions? Perhaps they were never as attached to making nuclear weapons as they appeared to be? There are factors beyond the effect of the sanctions. A restless population for example. If they run to authoritarian form, the regime probably knows it’s losing the younger generation more clearly and in more detail than its enemies do. And there are the minorities. Cold war with America has been going on a long time. They are tired or their people are.
So basically no could or would say openly what the deal actually meant.
Flash forward to the final agreement.
Even better than preliminary agreement. Why, because they aren’t planning on making a bomb, so the details actually don’t much matter to Iran… face saving is important of course.
Now what no one I’ve seen is talking about, is the broader picture, the various possible scenarios that are not based directly on inspections. Wonks are looking at the details of inspections and so forth. Remember Iran’s atomic energy program has been inspected over many years for a non-proliferation treaty that the Shah’s government signed not the current government.They have never repudiated it.
The treaty they plan to sign is a whole other kettle of finned swimming creatures, they will own it in a much different and very unforgiving way. It will be their treaty. They violate they will look like liars before the whole world. Now the hard noses will tell you this is the soft side stuff and doesn’t matter but if you look at the dynamics…. (If you don’t think this sort of thing matters explain what happened to Iraq’s army.)
That whole world is party to the agreement is very important. It’s not just a treaty with the Great Satan, but China, Russia and others. And the Security Council has signed on and affirmed it.This is now everybody’s baby. In any case the UN sanctions will snap back, the US will have more draconian sanctions than even before.Iran will be worse off. The Israelis and US government would have a perfect excuse to attack them. It would be hard, but not impossible, to even verbally defend them. They will have embarrassed and betrayed the negotiations, in front of all possible supporting countries. It would hurt the various foreign Shia based organizations they try to help.
And what will be the reaction in Iran to sanctions with their attendant grief coming down . It would put the regime (short or long term) in an jeopardy. Iran’s regime controls the media, imagine the clever lies they could tell. Still it’s just not going to work. A huge part of the population would be furious. And even if they said yes we’re right it would a difference. Then there is the pride and respect the regime feels for their great achievement, Iranian Islamic revolution—sullied damaged for all their explanations. The honor of Shia Islam horribly undercut. Iran endangered. And for what, they are not going anywhere with this. (It’s strictly forbidden to say that Iran having a bomb is not the end of the world and doesn’t justify attack on them. It’s bad but … remember Stalin and Mao.)
Now if they could make dozens and dozens of nuclear weapons put them secure silos without anyone knowing that might be something. Otherwise it doesn’t matter, whether they successfully hide making a bomb or two bombs or get caught in the process, (which most likely), or hardliners break the treaty publicly. It doesn’t change their situation which is now much worse than before..They have one bomb. Israel has what, four hundred bombs, the US and other allies thousands. It destroys their economy and gets them no guarantee of protection and even under the best scenario no usable offense.
It’s not just a matter of inspections that make this deal highly likely to work, even though discussion is absorbed in this. If there inspections were not as good it would still work.
The Iranian regime is brutal and authoritarian, but it’s not made up of crazies. They have run a stable, all too stable government for my taste, and have done so for decades.They have a lot to lose. Israel’s rhetoric and that of its US supporters is fundamentally racist and paranoid. And we’re all supposed to be really respectful toward this and tip toe about. All the fear based possibilities are horribly unlikely; they give the bomb to Hezbollah and sneak it in , etc. Israelis would blow up Southern Lebanon and … Iran, even if they didn’t have any actual evidence. Besides Hezbollah is another brutal, but with their own terms rational actor and has a strong if concern for their own people. A misplaced strategy for doing so to be sure.
Last but not least:
Now we have this really stupid article in good ole WAPO about the US not knowing the details of the protocols between the IAEA and Iran and how horrible this is. Look, the US has been working closely with IAEA for a couple decades. Everybody who has read a spy novel should know what this means.
Of course we know whats in them, most likely the US wrote the protocols or came close to doing so. The US supposedly doesn’t know the final version? I’d wager big bucks that not only the US and allies know exactly whats in them, but Iran knows they know, and that’s better for Iran too, in terms of the stability and viability of the agreement. US has to know the details for the treaty to work. Obama and the administration are loath to say so publicly with good reason. Republicans have shown they cross traditional boundaries, to leak to try and destroy the agreement. I’m not sure I’d tell them, though it’s likely the administration has told them. Won’t matter they’ll say the same things and vote the same way, anyhow.