Florida's current congressional districts
With Florida about to redraw its congressional and state Senate seats, our president-by-LD project is taking a look at the 2014 statewide elections under the current lines. President-by-LD is our ongoing project to calculate statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts
We have the results calculated by state House (which isn't changing), state Senate, and congressional districts for governor, state agriculture commissioner, attorney general, chief financial officer, and Amendment 2, which would have legalized medical marijuana. A major thank you goes to Matthew Isbell of MCI Maps for helping us track down precinct changes from 2012 to 2014. If you've been following Florida's new round of redistricting you're probably familiar with Isbell's work, and we'll all undoubtedly be turning to him again as the new lines are drawn.
We also have the 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate race calculated. We made a few minor fixes to SD-23 and SD-39 for both 2012 races, and to FL-01 and FL-02 for the Senate contest, but very little changes. You can find our master list of states here. Also be sure to check out Stephen Wolf's interactive state legislative maps.
The banner 2014 race was the duel between Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Democrat Charlie Crist, which Scott won 48-47. Crist carried the very same 11 congressional districts as Obama, but only outperformed the president in 12 of the 27 seats. Crist's biggest improvement over Obama was in FL-13, which he carried 50-43 to Obama's 50-49. FL-13 is all-but-certain to get even bluer after redistricting, and Crist has announced that he'll run for the seat if his home is located in the new version of the district (which is also all-but-certain).
Crist's biggest underperformance was in FL-09, which he only carried 53-42 to Obama's 62-37. It's unclear how redistricting will reshape this open Orlando-area seat, but Team Blue will need to be on guard for midterm turnout drops here. At the state Senate level, Crist carried 16 of the 40 seats, losing three Obama districts while taking one Romney seat. Crist also took 54 of the 120 state House seats, trading eight Obama districts for seven Romney ones.
Republican incumbents easily won re-election in the other statewide offices so there's not too much to see, but Amendment 2 is worth a look. The yes side (pro-legalizing medical marijuana) took 58 percent of the vote, just short of the 60 percent it needed to pass. Yes won more votes than no in 26 of the 27 congressional districts, with no prevailing only in Mario Diaz-Balart's FL-25. However, yes only cleared 60 in nine seats. Romney only carried one seat where yes took at least 60: FL-02, which is currently represented by Democrat Gwen Graham.