It's been common wisdom among beltway media types that Donald Trump's popularity in the Republican presidential primary was a bubble that would quickly burst. Quickly has come and gone, and
Trump is still popular. In fact, while his support has some weaknesses, it's broad enough to look like it might almost be ... brace yourselves ... for real. It's a possibility so shocking it takes three
New York Times reporters to explain:
A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.
In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting.
Closed primaries in which only registered Republicans can vote could pose a challenge for Trump, as could turning out the infrequent voters among whom his support is particularly high. But merely saying rude or bigoted things will not be enough:
Asked if Mr. Trump had crossed a line with his language, Carl Tomanelli, 68, a retired New York City police officer in Londonderry, N.H., seemed surprised by the question.
“People are starting to see, I believe, that all this political correctness is garbage,” he said. “I think he’s echoing what a lot of people feel and say.”
You don't want to underestimate how far a politician can get by appealing to the hateful bigot resentfully seething inside people, enraged that their racism and misogyny is frowned on. Just as Trump gave voice to the racist resentment of a black president by promoting birtherism, he's now giving voice—more explicitly than his Republican opponents dare—to similar resentments against immigrants, women, and anyone else who's not like "us," whoever "we" may be at any given moment.