Map of the new Community Improvement District in Columbia, Missouri
Leading Off:
• Gerrymandering: Normally gerrymandering in a medium-sized town that doesn't even pertain to city council elections would be too down-in-the-weeds, but this story from the Columbia Tribune is too funny to ignore. Self-interested business owners successfully petitioned the Columbia, Missouri, city council to create a local Community Improvement District, which would have the authority to impose a half-cent sales tax increase with voter approval. However, the district lines were drawn in a manner that attempted to avoid containing any eligible voters, meaning that property-owners themselves would get to decide on the sales tax increase as a way to avoid further property taxes to pay for improvements.
Unfortunately for them, things didn't exactly go according to plan. It soon became known that a single voter, University of Missouri student Jen Henderson, was registered to vote in the new CID. That means that she alone will get to decide whether or not to approve the sales tax increase. The CID has already gone into debt to finance planned improvements and was counting on the increased revenue from the sales tax increase.
Predictably, Henderson is not pleased with how manipulative this process has been. She was even asked to de-register so that the vote would revert to property owners. While Henderson hasn't publicly stated which way she plans to vote, she sounded skeptical of the proposed sales tax increase and rightfully pointed out how it is regressive in nature while the benefits accrue mainly to incumbent businesses.
In a delicious twist of irony, if Henderson votes against the sales tax increase or the vote is called off entirely, the only way for the CID to pay off its debts will be to levy further taxes on property, which is exactly what these businesses were trying to avoid. Most of the time gerrymandering is successful and unfair, but instances like this show it can sometimes backfire spectacularly.
Senate:
• OH-Sen: In an appearance in Ohio on Thursday, Hillary Clinton gave her backing to ex-Gov. Ted Strickland, asking her supporters to "help Ted get elected to the United States Senate." Politico frames this as "all but" an endorsement, but while candidates often play games as to whether something is or isn't a "formal" endorsement, there's no, like, legal definition of the concept. If you tell the world you want to see a certain person win, and people conclude you've issued an endorsement, then you've issued an endorsement!
Strickland faces Cincinnati City Councilman P.G. Sittenfeld in the Democratic primary. Both are hoping to take on GOP Sen. Rob Portman next year, but Sittenfeld trails Strickland badly both in fundraising and polling.
• PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall: Pat Toomey (R-inc): 41, Joe Sestak (D): 29; Toomey: 35, Katie McGinty (D): 28.
Gubernatorial:
• LA-Gov: GOP Sen. David Vitter recently launched his ad campaign for the Oct. 24 jungle primary, and now his allied super PAC is joining in. The Fund For Louisiana's Future is expected to spend a total of $2 million from now until the primary.
• NH-Gov: While all those millions in conservative super PAC bucks are getting spent to dissuade Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan from running for Senate, they're also having an early effect on her re-election numbers as well. Should Hassan choose to run for a third two-year term, she currently sports leads of 48-41 on Executive Councilor Chris Sununu and 48-39 on state Sen. Jeb Bradley, according to PPP. But that's down a bit from April, when she was beating Sununu 52-35 and Bradley 53-36. However, if Hassan does stay put, those same super PACs will aim their fire elsewhere. The Republican Governors Association might try to pick up the slack, but Hassan would still be hard to beat in a presidential year.
However, if she does decide to challenge GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte instead, then we'd have a wide-open race to succeed her. Thanks to greater name recognition on the Republican side, both Sununu and Bradley would beat a trio of potential Democratic candidates, but the leads are all small:
Versus former state House Speaker Terie Norelli: Sununu 39-34, Bradley 39-33
Versus Executive Councilor Chris Pappas: Sununu 38-34, Bradley 38-33
Versus Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern: Sununu: 39-32, Bradley: 38-31
As you can see, regardless of who you swap in for either party, it barely makes a difference. Democrats would probably retain a small edge in the even of an open-seat race, since the party has carried New Hampshire in five of the last six presidential elections (and Al Gore likely would have in 2000 were it not for Ralph Nader), but it would be competitive.
House:
• RI-01: This is very thin, but Kate Nagle of GoLocalProv speculates that former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, who came in second in last year's Democratic gubernatorial primary, might be interested in challenging Rep. David Cicilline, who is also a Democrat. The only evidence in favor of such a notion is that Taveras recently bought a house in the district, though it's worth noting that he didn't respond when asked for comment earlier in the week.
Cicilline has found himself in weak shape almost from the moment he first won office in 2010. During his first term, new revelations emerged about the poor shape of Providence's finances (where he'd been mayor), ultimately forcing Cicilline to apologize for having claimed that the city had been in "excellent financial condition" when he first ran for Congress. He won renomination in 2012 with just 62 percent of the vote (soft for an incumbent), and won re-election that fall with only 53 percent, despite sitting in a very blue district that state lawmakers had actually shored up for him.
Most scandals tend to fade over time, so you'd expect the effects of Cicilline's past deceptions about Providence's balance sheets to resonate less now. But even in 2014, he only took 63 percent in the Democratic primary against a no-name opponent, and Taveras would be able to put up a much stiffer fight. It would also get ugly: As Nagle notes, Taveras, who succeeded Cicilline as mayor, often blasted his predecessor for the city's woes, and it got under Cicilline's skin.
Taveras, however, underperformed expectations when he ran for governor in 2014. While he came in to the race as the obvious progressive standard-bearer, he never was able to mobilize the union support that should have come out heavily for him. Instead, state Treasurer Gina Raimondo, who had angered organized labor with her push for pension reform, defeated Taveras by a wide 42-29 margin. (Raimondo went on to win the general election, too.)
To go forward, Taveras would have to demonstrate that he learned from his mistakes, and he'd also have to offer a compelling argument as to why Cicilline should be dumped. For now, though, this is all very speculative, so we'll just have to wait to hear more from Taveras himself.
Other Races:
• Columbus Mayor: Until mid-June, City Council President Andrew Ginther looked like the favorite in this November's contest against fellow Democrat and Franklin County Sheriff Zach Scott. However, Ginther was linked to a bribery scandal: Karen Finley, a former chief executive for the red-light camera company Redflex, plead guilty to using the Ohio Democratic Party to bribe several key officials, including Ginther. Ginther has not been charged with anything, but the story has not been good for him. Ginther is now up with his first TV commercial, and he's trying to change the conversation by focusing on Scott.
Ginther's spot accuses Scott of running "a culture of abuse." The narrator describes how a pregnant woman was Tasered and a man was left to die in jail, and argues that Scott did nothing to clean up the sheriff's department. Scott has struggled with fundraising and for all his problems, Ginther should have the resources to keep going after Scott on the air.
• Nashville Mayor: With the Sept. 10 runoff rapidly approaching, both sides are dusting off their negative ads. David Fox accuses opponent Megan Barry of doing nothing to solve the city's problems during her eight years in office, only raising taxes and racking up debt. There's also a guy in a fox costume at the end as Fox (the candidate) ask "how we gonna fix things?" Another Fox spot features his wife also hitting Barry as a liberal extremist. Fox's allied super PAC is also spending $194,000 on a spot accusing Barry of wanting "to make trending, progressive social issues her top priority while ignoring our infrastructure and economy."
Barry is firing back, accusing Fox of not caring about the middle class. The spot then goes positive and features a clip of ex-Mayor and Gov. Phil Bredesen endorsing her.
Grab Bag:
• Demographics: Over at Latino Decisions, Josh Zingher shares some insights from his research into how 2010's polarizing SB 1070 bill (also known as the "Papers, please" bill) may affect the voting behavior of the Arizona electorate in relation to what happened in California in the 90s.
Should the Latino electorate in Arizona follow the same path as California (as appears to be occurring), Democratic chances will be greatly enhanced. However, in 2012, Democratic vote share among white voters dropped precipitously, to just 32 percent for President Obama and 36 percent for Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona. Should white Democratic support stay at 32 percent, the chances of Arizona turning blue in the near future are dim indeed.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.