Hillary Clinton's lead narrows, and Donald Trump and Ben Carson account for more than half of Republican support in the
latest ABC/Washington Post national poll. But while Trump continues to solidify support among Republicans, non-Republicans are repulsed.
All told, among registered voters, 33 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents now favor Trump for the nomination, with 20 percent for Carson—up 9 percentage points and 14 percentage points, respectively, since July. [...]
In the Democratic contest, Clinton's drop is dramatic, yet not enough to threaten her clear lead. She's supported by 42 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who are registered to vote, down from 63 percent in July, while Sanders has gained 10 points, to 24 percent, and Joe Biden's up by 9 points, to 21 percent. If Biden doesn't run, most of his support moves to Clinton, boosting her to 56 percent —exactly double Sanders' support in this case.
Clinton's support has eroded after months of stories about her emails, largely among women. In July, the ABC/Wapo poll found she had 71 percent of women, this month it's down to 42. She continues to have a 57-13 lead over Sanders among nonwhites. This month, 39 percent say she honest and trustworthy, a 14 point decline in the past year. Forty-six percent say she understands the problems of average Americans. However, the scandal might have done as much damage as it's going to do: fewer than half—44 percent—say it's a legitimate issue, down 4 points since May. And her disapproval numbers on the issue remain static since May. What she does get is 56 percent of Americans saying she "has the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president."
Contrast that to Trump: "The public by 63-33 percent says he lacks the personality and temperament to serve effectively -– and, by an even broader 67-29 percent, that he doesn't understand their problems. Just 35 percent see him as honest and trustworthy." Where is Trump's huge support coming from? The people who want an "outsider"—there he gets 41 percent to Carson's 25. But here's where it really breaks down and where the GOP's biggest problem resides: Trump gets the anti-immigration vote among registered Republicans and leaning Republicans in a landslide—59 percent. The problem there? Fifty-seven percent of everyone surveyed in this poll are not racists and oppose him on immigration.
In a head-to-head in the ABC/Wapo model, Clinton and Trump are essentially tied 46-43. But that's using a model assuming that most of the people in Clinton's base—women and minorities—don't turn out to vote. Chances are pretty good—and past presidential elections suggest—a Trump nomination would upend that assumption.