At least 85 percent of the uncertainty behind whether or not the government will shut down at 12:01 AM ET on October 1 is about House Speaker John Boehner's ongoing war with the several dozen extremists in his conference who keep threatening to topple him. That brewing civil war—and intraparty squabble—could result in
a catastrophic few months for the whole country. Not only does Congress need to pass something by the end of the month to keep the doors open, it's going to have to pass a debt ceiling hike in October or November.
The speaker's lieutenants are openly girding for battle with the small but influential bloc of anti-Boehner conservatives, who have signaled that if Boehner cuts any deal that they don't like with Hill Democrats and President Obama, they could seek to remove him from the speaker's post. It is a threat that Boehner and his allies are taking seriously. […]
The conservatives say their goal is to influence the policy outcomes of the next few months, rather than force a vote on Boehner. …
These conservatives have not outlined a plan to overcome the Democratic support for Planned Parenthood, let alone how to build a two-thirds majority to override a presidential veto of legislation defunding the group. Some conservatives now articulating a shutdown strategy voiced regret after the 2013 shutdown, including Meadows, who told a local TV interviewer that Congress needs to "make sure it doesn't happen again."
That's left some in leadership and their loyalists worried that their critics know the effort will fail and that they are setting a political trap for Boehner — anything other than a government shutdown would be portrayed as acquiescence to Democrats and reason for revolt.
That could be giving the extremists credit for more intelligence and strategic thinking than they're capable of, frankly. It's not like this is a sneak attack on Boehner—they've been threatening to take him down (and failing) for a couple of years now. That has ensured that Boehner keeps kowtowing to them, as he is again, still, in the current fight. His leadership team has been meeting with members of the Freedom Caucus (that's what the nutjobs call themselves) for days trying to find the special sauce—in the form of increasingly bad anti-abortion and anti-women's health bills—that will make them play nice. Not surprisingly, the Freedom Caucus is
just getting more extreme.
While that's going on, Democrats are just sitting back and enjoying the ride, knowing that Boehner will have to come to them to save the day. Thus far, they're keeping mum on whether they'd give Boehner the support he needs to keep his speakership. That's smart strategy—there's an awful lot they can and should extract from Boehner in exchange for their support.