With Donald Trump no longer rising in the Republican presidential primary (but still in first place), GOP leaders may be tempted to breathe a sigh of relief and relax a little bit. But that probably wouldn't be a good idea. First, Trump's numbers aren't guaranteed to continue falling and indeed could go back up. But second, and more importantly, Trump's support is the symptom, not the disease: It's simply indicative of the hostile attitude the Republican base has toward its party leaders. The base is restless. They've scored a recent victory in House Speaker John Boehner's resignation, and they're ravenous for more.
We can see this in the graph above when we combine support for the three candidates who have no prior elected experience: perennial blowhard Donald Trump, failed business leader Carly Fiorina, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson. Trump's numbers may have waned a bit, but Fiorina and Carson appear to have picked up those erstwhile Trump backers. Support for these three candidates, collectively, has been growing steadily for the last five months or so and now extends to more than half the GOP voters.
The data points nosediving into the floor? That's all of the other candidates added together, the so-called deep, strong field of experienced senators and governors.
Join me below the fold for two more graphs that should keep Republican stomachs churning.
Actually, things are even worse than they appear for the Republican establishment, in that Senator Ted Cruz is also running as an Outsider Anti-Establishment Candidate™. (Arguably you could include Rand Paul as well, although his shtick is a little different.) Add him in, and you're up to about 60 percent support for these four candidates combined—and growing:
Meanwhile, what happened to the establishment favorites? One has already dropped out, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. These are subjective determinations, of course, but to represent the establishment, we've included Walker along with Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich in the graph below:
Together, these candidates barely account for a fifth of the vote. One of them could certainly still win in the end—Bush's $100 million isn't going to just sit there and rot—but the current polling numbers speak volumes about the mood of the GOP electorate. And even if Trump continues to swoon, the mood is not a happy one.