PPP's newest poll of the North Carolina primary shows frontrunners Clinton and Trump continuing to lead their respective fields, but the big news may be for their second place competitors, as Vice President Joe Biden and Ben Carson pull into very strong second place showings.
GOP:
Trump 26
Carson 21
Fiorina 12
Rubio 10
Cruz 9
Huckabee 6
Bush 5
Kasich 4
Christie 2
Everyone else 1 or less
Dem:
Clinton 37
Biden 30
Sanders 17
Webb 3
Chaffee 2
O'Malley 1
If Biden is taken out, the numbers are:
Clinton 51
Sanders 23
More below the fold
North Carolina was a Super Tuesday state, but recently moved their contest back by two weeks due to a GOP rule that prevented them from being a winner-take-all delegates state before March 15th. Now North Carolinians will vote on the mini-Super Tuesday alongside Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and Florida.
On the GOP side, the news is all about Carson and Fiorina. Trump's numbers are steady, as he was at 24 last month. Carson has rocketed up by seven points to a strong second place, and Fiorina is up by 6, doubling her support in the last month. Obviously things continue to look very bleak for Bush, while Rubio keeps himself in the mix. Rand Paul is heading to DC to raise money for his Senate race in Kentucky, which might be a good idea given his 0% support in this latest poll.
The Democratic side shows many of the same trends we've seen elsewhere. Without Biden in the race, things are largely unchanged from last month. Her 51-23 lead head to head over Sanders isn't much worse than her 55-19 lead last month.
Biden is the big X factor in the race. He's taking a huge 14 point chunk out of Hillary's numbers and just four from Sanders. These are the kind of numbers that might encourage the Vice President to get into the race- he appears to be Clinton's primary competition when the electorate is ideologically or demographically diverse.
Biden's strength comes from two places- African American voters and conservative Democrats. Sanders continues to struggle with voters outside of his white, liberal base of support.
Among black voters, the race is
Clinton 47
Biden 34
Sanders 8
PPP's write up of the ideological breakdowns is a little clearer than picking apart the raw numbers in the crosstabs-
Conservative Democrats are still a thing in North Carolina- 20% of the party's electorate- and it's them who are making Biden so competitive in the state. He gets 40% to just 14% for Clinton and 8% for Sanders. When you look at the race just among liberals and moderates, Clinton has a much more comfortable lead with 42% to 28% for Biden and 19% for Sanders.
Black voters are about 1/3 of the primary electorate in North Carolina, and 1/5 Democrats consider themselves conservative here, making it an unlikely state for Bernie Sanders to make a breakthrough.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...