Aircraft reconnaissance shows that Hurricane Joaquin has rapidly intensified to category 3 status with 100kt - 115mph - winds Wednesday evening.
Joaquin's latest forecast track is stunningly similar to Sandy's
UPDATE
The new official NHC forecast track is stunningly similar to hurricane Sandy's. The official forecast now predicts major hurricane force winds sustained at 120mph. Even if this hurricane turns offshore, major coastal damage could occur from huge storm surf.
The GFDL hurricane model places hurricane Joaquin at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay with maximum winds at major hurricane strength early Sunday morning Oct. 4, 2015. The present NHC forecast is for Joaquin to stay well out to sea, not making landfall in the U.S. The National Hurricane Center experts think that this model run has a low probability of coming true.
Tropical Storm Joaquin just became a hurricane. As the wind shear that Joaquin had been fighting for many days relaxed, the energy of the 85°F ocean won out and Joaquin intensified. Several hurricane models now predict that Joaquin will reach major hurricane strength of greater than 115 mph (100 knots), although the NHC forecast is not that bold.
The big question mark is the track. The most likely track is for Joaquin to pass harmlessly between Bermuda and North Carolina's outer banks. The European model swings Joaquin even further to the north east than the NHC forecast. However, several American models build a large high pressure dome to the north of Joaquin, similar to the set up that turned hurricane Sandy back towards New York harbor. This is a very real scenario for Joaquin, but the Chesapeake Bay, not New York harbor, is threatened this weekend. However, if Joaquin follows the NHC 5 day forecast New York and New England would have a risk of hurricane landfall sometime mid-week, next week. The margin of error may be even larger than the NHC forecast indicates because of the huge divergence between forecast model tracks. Joaquin will be a very hard hurricane to forecast.
Hurricane Joaquin's forecast track is highly uncertain after 48 hours. There is a low probability of hurricane landfall over a vast area of the east coast from North Carolina's outer banks, northwards to the Canadian maritime provinces. The most immediate risk to the United States would be to the Outer Banks and Chesapeake Bay early Sunday morning.
Prepare, don't panic if you are in an area that might be affected by Joaquin. Understand that predicting the track of this storm to date has been very challenging. At this time the actual probability of any given area being severely impacted by Joaquin is very low. The most likely impact is high surf on south facing beaches on the east coast. I am posting this warning as a heads up to prepare early for anyone who might possibly be in harms way.
UPDATE The hurricane could swing into coastal North Carolina early Sunday morning according to the latest American GFS model run. This is one of many scenarios given the large uncertainty in the forecast track. Everyone on the east coast including people living on the slopes of the Appalachians where very heavy rain could occur needs to watch the weather this weekend.
The midday Weds 30Sept American GFS model run brings the hurricane into coastal North Carolina early Sunday morning.
end update
Please follow the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center. The NHC experts are more level headed and reliable than media weather personalities. And I am just a blogger who writes about hurricanes as a very serious hobby. This post is the opinion of someone who posts on the internet, not the official forecast made by a team of battle hardened hurricane experts.
At present, hurricane warnings are up for the Bahama Islands and only the Bahamas.
Hurricane Joaquin threatens the Bahamas.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 72.2 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A general motion
toward the west-southwest or southwest is expected to continue
through tonight. A turn toward the west and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Joaquin is expected to move near or over portions of the central
Bahamas tonight and Thursday.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph
(120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the
center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km) from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach portions of the
Central Bahamas by midday Thursday. Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength in the warning area tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
Note that the waters off the east coast are exceptionally warm for the end of September. And the water is warm to considerable depth. The severity of hurricane Sandy and the potential severity of hurricane Joaquin is possible because of the extraordinarily high heat content of the western Atlantic ocean waters. This threatening situation is more dangerous because greenhouse gases released by human activities are heating the oceans.
New update after the break.
Sea level is about 30 cm, one foot, above normal on the east coast ahead of the hurricane.
An extraordinarily warm deep pool of water off the east coast has been driven towards the east coast by sustained northeasterly winds causing a large jump in sea level along the east coast.