Democrat Jack Conway posts a 5-point edge against Matt Bevin
While Republican money-men would like to stuff Matt Bevin in a barrel with a loosely fitting lid and launch him over the top of Niagara Falls on a stormy day, it doesn't look like his gubernatorial bid is entirely hopeless. In fact, according to
the first poll of the race we've seen since July, the contest is still pretty close: Democrat Jack Conway holds a 42-37 lead, with 7 percent of voters favoring independent Drew Curtis and 15 percent undecided, per SurveyUSA.
In fact, despite Bevin's well-publicized failings (more on the latest in a minute), things haven't budged at all in the last two months. When SUSA last polled Kentucky, Conway led by a 43-38 margin, with Curtis at 8—so, nothing doing. If anything, though, these latest results ought to be fairly positive for Bevin, since it's likely that undecided voters lean in the Republican direction. Indeed, that's exactly what Democrats feared most in last year's Senate race between Mitch McConnell and Alison Grimes, and it's exactly what came to pass (and then some).
But fortunately for Bluegrass Democrats, gubernatorial elections are different beasts from federal races, and there's also a good chance that as we approach Election Day, supporters of the lefty-ish Curtis (he's the founder of the popular community website Fark) will gravitate toward Conway. And the fact still remains that Conway's the one with the lead, and you'd always rather be that guy.
What's more, the RGA wouldn't be kicking Bevin's can all over the place if they weren't seeing some signs that really disturbed them. The newest such portent came Wednesday in a radio debate with Conway, when Bevin professed his admiration for neurosurgeon Ben Carson and declared that Sen. Rand Paul was "not the first choice I would make" in the presidential race.
That was a super-awkward thing to say because Paul is, you know, a fellow Kentuckian, and he's also appearing at a rally for Bevin on Saturday. Bevin hurriedly tried to undo the damage by claiming in a tweet that he's not endorsing Carson "or anyone" for president, but that if he did, he'd "#StandWithRand." More like "#ForcedToPretendIStandWithRand." Anyhow, the even is supposedly still on, but Politico described GOP leaders as "incredulous" that Bevin would diss Paul in such a fashion. When it comes to Bevin, though, nothing should shock anymore.