We've been told time and time again by the liberal economic populists that if we stay away from divisive social issues (like guns) and focus on economic appeals to the white working class, that this vote can be won. Bernie Sanders has explicitly said as much, but he is not the only one. Nor is he the first. We've heard this argument cycle after cycle, yet nobody seems capable of actually demonstrating it in a presidential election.
This past summer I happened to come across this piece in Washington Monthly by noted white working-class pollster Stan Greenberg. In it he cites the usual testing results that have been the standard sales pitch for his argument for decades: Advocate economic populism because white working class voters love it. He advises taking on the special interests and the rich. He advises proposing new initiatives to help middle and working-class families. Tax increases on the wealthy, more infrastructure spending, the whole nine yards of populist awesome. This is nothing new—he's been selling this for many years with quality polling to back it up.
Yet, according to the latest Pew poll, the candidate who is leading among the poorest, least educated white voters is: Trump, the wealthiest, most pro-rich candidate in the field. Not Sanders.
Why? Keep reading below.
We need to know more. But here's a possibility: White working-class voters may agree with economic populism, but when it comes to voting, social issues are more important.
The threshold issues, which are front-and-center in every presidential election, are how voters categorize a candidate into "possible" or "not possible." For example, I have no problem with oil drilling in communities or states that want it. I support American oil exploration. We need oil, we should produce it ourselves until we don't need it, which should be our ultimate goal. But would I ever vote for a Republican who, for example, was for exploration but against civil rights? Or for voter restrictions? No fucking way. That's a basic issue for me. I'll take my chances with the Democrat who wants to ban drilling.
Similarly, you might find white working-class voters have similar views with respect to guns or immigration. You might be speaking their language on going after Wall Street, but you will not get their vote if you aren't for mass deportation or at minimum, second-class citizenship. It's a basic issue for these people. There had better be no talk of gun control whatsoever, or forget it. They'll take their chances with the billionaire who hates Mexicans and loves guns.
When are we going to get over it and face facts? Democrats aren't going to win these voters without becoming a tremendously different political party on social issues. Furthermore, considering the trends, why would we? The bottom line is this: Democrats are going to have to become bolder about confrontation with the white working class over social issues. They're wrong and we're right. So we should be directly confronting them over every aspect of their wrongness. Because them changing is the only way we're going to have an opening to recapture these voters.