It's another edition of our favorite series: Senators on escalators
Leading Off:
• PA-Sen: Quinnipiac has painted a dire picture in Pennsylvania for Team Blue, with Republican Sen. Pat Toomey consistently leading his prospective Democratic foes by horrific margins. But with questions about the makeup of Quinnipiac's samples, we've long thirsted for another pollster to go into the field in the Keystone State. And indeed, a new PPP survey finds a very different landscape: Toomey is ahead, yes, but he's by no means unbeatable:
• 41-34 vs. Braddock Mayor John Fetterman
• 43-36 vs. former gubernatorial chief of staff Katie McGinty
• 41-38 vs. 2010 nominee Joe Sestak
PPP gives Toomey a weak 28-43 approval rating,
very different
from the 51-27 score Quinnipiac most recently found. Some of Toomey's weakness is with Republican voters, who only approve of him by a 42-27 margin, but will likely come home to him in the general. But Toomey is underwater with independents and isn't getting much love from Democrats, and it's very difficult for a Republican to win here without more support from both groups.
PPP usually gives politicians worse ratings than other pollsters, but the gap is rarely this massive. Toomey's re-election chances may come down to which pollster is closer to the truth. Pennsylvania usually votes Democratic in presidential years, and if Toomey is anywhere near as unpopular as PPP thinks, he's not going to have an easy time finding crossover voters. But if Quinnipiac is correct and Toomey has won his constituents over, he's well-positioned for next year. Not many other pollsters have released numbers here in recent months, so we'll just need to wait for more information.
The good news for all three Democrats is that they should have more room to grow once they become better known. Sestak nearly won this seat in 2010, but 58 percent of respondents have no opinion of him; those who do give him a 21-20 favorability rating.
McGinty is a favorite of the Democratic establishment but few voters remember her unimpressive 2014 gubernatorial bid, and she has favorables of just 14-21. Fetterman has gotten national attention for his work trying to revitalize his small town of Braddock, but 79 percent of voters don't know who he is. At this point, Sestak is likely performing better than the other two Democrats against Toomey simply because more people recognize him.
Head below the fold for a look at the Democratic primary.
Powerful national and state Democrats have made it plain that they'd prefer to see McGinty as their nominee instead of Sestak. Sestak enraged the establishment when he successfully challenged party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 primary, and those same people are convinced that Sestak is running an amateurish campaign against Toomey. PPP gives us an early look at the primary and finds that Sestak leads McGinty 29-22, while Fetterman takes 14.
At this point, even Keystone State Democrats don't have much of an opinion about any of their three choices. Sestak has a 29-18 favorable rating among members of his own party, while McGinty and Fetterman are at 23-15 and 10-16 respectively. Sestak's initial edge once again seems to be the product of name recognition, and things will change one way or another once the primary campaign heats up.
McGinty had a strong opening fundraising quarter, so she'll have the resources to get her name out. Sestak's fundraising has been very uneven and he hasn't released his latest quarterly haul yet, though he has millions left in his warchest. Fetterman only recently got into the race, and we'll need to see if he has the connections to raise the type of money he'll need in this expensive state.
3Q Fundraising:
• AK-Sen:
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): $920,000 raised, $2 million on hand
• AR-Sen: John Boozman (R-inc): $359,000 raised, $1.12 million on hand; Conner Eldridge (D): $403,000 raised (in three weeks), $400,000 on hand
• MD-Sen: Chris Van Hollen (D): $950,000 raised, $4.1 million on hand
• NV-Sen: Catherine Cortez Masto (D): $1.4 million raised, $1.5 million on hand
• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey (R-inc): $2 million raised, $8.6 million on hand
• MO-Gov: Chris Koster (D): $5 million on hand
Senate:
• FL-Sen: Both Democratic Senate candidates released their quarterly fundraising totals on Thursday. Rep. Patrick Murphy has always been a good fundraiser, so it's no surprise to see him haul in $1.5 million and end with $3.5 million in the bank. But fellow Rep. Alan Grayson has a nationwide donor base, and we expected him to make a splash. Grayson raised a pretty meh $743,000: By contrast, when Grayson was running to return to the House in 2011, he brought in $974,000 during this fundraising quarter. But Grayson has just $252,000 on hand, meaning he burned through most of the money he raised.
So what's going on here? It's possible that Grayson's using direct mail, which is infamous for bringing in tons of money but costs so much to implement that candidates end up netting very little. In the past, Republicans have usually been the victims of direct mail, but some Democrats could be trying it out. It's also worth noting that during Grayson's 2011 third quarter, he spent about $1.3 million, so this kind of thing isn't new for him. However, it doesn't look like Grayson was involved in any such questionable fundraising operations back then; rather, the bulk of his expenditures went to media firms like Rollins Communications. It's possible he's spending on the same kinds of things now, but we won't know until the FEC laboriously scans in Senate filings in a couple of weeks.
Grayson is wealthy and if he invests his own money into his campaign, he can overcome his weak fundraising. Of course, Grayson's entire shtick is that he's the "true progressive" in the primary, and few liberals are happy when it looks like a rich guy is trying to buy an election.
Meanwhile, Rep. David Jolly, the nominal Republican frontrunner and likely his party's most formidable potential candidate, pulled in a pretty sucky quarter of his own. Jolly raised just $440,000, which would be good for a House race but is terrible for a giant state like Florida. Thanks to some money left over from his House account, he has $658,000 in cash-on-hand, which is likewise quite weak. Perhaps he'll crank it up in the next quarter, like Scott Brown did last cycle, but this is not an auspicious beginning, especially for a "moderate" who will need to work hard to win the GOP primary.
• IN-Sen: Ex-Democratic Rep. Baron Hill brought in just $269,000 over the last three months, a pretty poor sum indeed. Democratic donors may be holding off to see what happens in the GOP primary, where establishment candidate Todd Young faces tea partier Marlin Stutzman, a fellow congressman. If Stutzman gets the nod, it would give Team Blue an opening here, while Young would likely take this seat off the table.
We saw something similar happen during Indiana's 2012 Senate race. A Democratic victory depended on Richard Mourdock beating incumbent Richard Lugar in the GOP primary, and Joe Donnelly only raised $355,000 during the third quarter of 2011. Mourdock gave Democrats what they wanted, and Donnelly's fundraising improved afterwards. But Hill may not get so lucky: Stutzman's campaign recently went through a major shakeup, which is not a sign that things are going well for him. Former non-profit executive John Dickerson is also running for Team Blue, and he has not yet released his fundraising totals.
• WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold has upped his fundraising game this year, but Republican Ron Johnson hasn't. Feingold outraised Johnson $2.3 million to $1.4 million, and Johnson only has a $3.5 million to $3.4 million cash on hand lead. Johnson is reluctant to self-fund this time, but he may need to if he wants to overcome his early deficits in the polls.
Gubernatorial:
• DE-Gov: Attorney General Matt Denn never sounded likely to challenge Rep. John Carney for the Democratic nod, and sure enough, he's one of several top Delaware politicians who will be hosting a Carney fundraiser.
At this point, New Castle County Executive Tom Gordon is the only notable Democrat who hasn't ruled out running for this post. However, Gordon hasn't said anything about his 2016 plans in months, and it doesn't seem that he's doing anything to gear up for a campaign. The News Journal's Jonathan Starkey notes that Gordon "hasn't been heard from in weeks and has stopped answering calls about a 2016 race." The Democratic establishment, including outgoing Gov. Jack Markell and both U.S. Senators, is in Carney's corner: If Gordon still has any gubernatorial ambitions, he's wasting vital time by doing nothing.
• LA-Gov: The RGA recently launched a $1 million ad buy against Democrat John Bel Edwards, and they're out with their second spot. Like their first commercial and probably every single one to come, they link Edwards to Obama, who has never been popular in Louisiana.
This time, they use Edwards' own words against him. They start with footage of Edwards declaring that he is "a Democrat, I supported the president." The narrator then accuses Edwards of trying to expand Obamacare and wanting to raise taxes. Edwards' "I supported the president" clip is interspaced throughout the ad.
A few polls have shown Edwards leading Republican David Vitter in their likely runoff, and a recent survey even gave Edwards a gaudy 48-32 edge. However, those surveys were conducted before Republicans began to attack Edwards. If Edwards can stay competitive with Vitter after ads like this one have had time to sink in, that's a very good sign for him. But other red state Democrats, including now ex-Louisiana Sen. Mary Landrieu, have lost after Republicans successfully tied them to Obama, and it's up to Edwards to prove that this time will be different.
House:
• DE-AL: State Rep. Bryon Short and state Sen. Bryan Townsend are both running to replace gubernatorial candidate John Carney, and they may get some company in the Democratic primary soon. Roll Call's Simone Pathé reports that Lisa Blunt Rochester, who used to serve as the state's labor secretary and went on to lead the Metropolitan Wilmington Urban League, is likely to jump in sometime in the next few weeks. Her sister, Marla Blunt-Carter, has also been thinking about running, but told the National Journal last month that the two siblings wouldn't face each other. EMILY's List has been encouraging Rochester to run, and they sound ready to endorse her if she gets in. A few other Democrats are eyeing this seat.
• IL-10: The DCCC and ex-Rep. Brad Schneider have each released a new poll of Illinois' 10th Congressional District, and together they're designed to show that Schneider is in a strong position to win both the Democratic primary and knock off GOP Rep. Bob Dold! in the general. Schneider has the primary covered, with a survey from Normington Petts that gives him a 54-18 lead on Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering and calls him the "prohibitive favorite."
However, not a single ad has been aired yet, and given that Schneider represented this district for a term, you'd expect him to have a considerable name recognition edge at this stage. A similar early poll from 2009 is instructive. Back then, Democrat Dan Seals, who'd previously run twice in this same district (like Schneider), released an internal showing him up 63-8 in the primary on then-state Rep. Julie Hamos. But after a hard-fought campaign, Seals won the nomination by less than 2 percent. (Seals went on to narrowly lose to Dold in the 2010 Republican wave.)
The final line of Normington's memo is also curious: "Schneider even wins an exchange over the Iran deal with Rotering." The wording of this "exchange" is not provided, but color us skeptical. Schneider's lost two major endorsements thanks to his opposition to the Iran nuclear agreement, and Democrats nationally are broadly supportive of the deal. Whether the issue winds up playing a role in the primary remains to be seen, but it's very hard to imagine that it'll turn out to be a plus for Schneider.
The DCCC's poll (apparently conducted in-house) also has some quirks. It puts Schneider ahead of Dold 37-29, which means there are an awful lot of undecideds. Apparently, those undecideds mostly lean Republican, because when they're "allocated according to likely partisanship" per the memo, Schneider's lead shrinks to 44-41. Unsurprisingly, the D-Trip, which is explicitly backing Schneider, did not include any numbers for Rotering. But the committee shouldn't be surprised if they wind up with her as their nominee instead.
• NC-03: It's been an interesting few weeks for Republican Walter Jones. The congressman underscored his poor relationship with the GOP establishment after he released a letter telling anyone who committed "misdeeds" to withdraw from the congressional leadership races. Jones finally admitted that his letter was referring to unsubstantiated rumors that House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Renee Ellmers had an affair, and it may have played a part in ending McCarthy's speakership campaign.
Some Republicans think that Jones' move has helped reinforce his outsider image ahead of his March primary rematch against former Treasury aide Taylor Griffin, whom he only defeated 51-45 last year. However, Jones continues to struggle with fundraising. Over the last three months, he brought in just $104,000, and he has only $179,000 on hand. Griffin's own quarterly fundraising was nothing to write home about either, with him taking in only $107,000 for $106,000 cash on hand. However, the establishment-friendly Griffin benefited from outside spending in 2014, and it doesn't sound like Jones will have the resources to defend himself this time.
• NE-02: Vulnerable Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford stepped up his fundraising over the last three months, but his opponents very much did not. Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bacon brought in just $107,000, barely better than his disappointing $100,000 haul in the second quarter; Bacon has only $152,000 on hand. Still, that's better than ex-state Sen. Chip Maxwell, who raised only a little more than $6,000.
The Omaha World-Herald speculates that potential donors are just waiting to see if anyone else will run before opening their wallets for the eventual GOP nominee. It's possible, but we haven't heard about any other Republicans eyeing this seat. The donors may know something we don't and someone more formidable may be quietly mulling a run, or they may actually be just hedging their bets. Of course, Bacon may just be a shitty fundraiser. Romney won this seat 53-46 and national Republicans are unlikely to give Ashford a pass, and we'll see if the NRCC lands someone else.
• NY-22: Richard Hanna is one of the very few genuinely moderate members of the GOP caucus, and he's once again creating mischief for Team Red. When Hanna was asked about the Benghazi Select Committee, he admitted that he thinks "a big part of this investigation that was designed to go after people, and an individual, Hillary Clinton." Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy accidentally confirmed that the committee is designed to hurt Clinton politically but while McCarthy let the truth slip out in a moment of hubris, Hanna knew exactly what he was doing. This isn't the first time Hanna has caused trouble for his party: Back in 2012, he encouraged women to donate to Democratic candidates to "remind people that you vote, you matter, and that they can't succeed without your help."
Last year, Hanna defeated conservative Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney 53-46 in the primary despite dramatically outspending her, and he may need to watch his back again. Tenney blasted Hanna for "jumping to the defense of Hillary Clinton," and her Twitter handle identifies her as a "Possible Candidate for Congress 2016." It's unclear when Tenney added this line, but we know she wasn't identifying herself like this back in May.
Tenney got a late start last time but if she's serious about trying again, she'll have more time to raise money and convince outside conservative groups to help her. It's also always possible that Hanna looks at the chaos engulfing the House GOP and decides to call it quits, though he has run for re-election twice despite all that's happened since he arrived in Congress. Romney only narrowly carried this upstate seat but the Democratic bench is very weak here, and Team Blue didn't even bother fielding a candidate last year.
• OH-08: Outgoing Speaker John Boehner has said little about the developing race to fill his safely red House seat but according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, Boehner and his allies appear to be backing Butler County Auditor Roger Reynolds. Reynolds has hired Boehner's old field director and a local Warren County party official says that the speaker is making calls on Reynold's behalf, though Reynolds himself claims he doesn't know what Boehner plans to do. State Rep. Tim Derickson and state Sen. Bill Beagle are also running in the GOP primary and several others are mulling a bid, and Boehner's behind-the-scenes support could make all the difference in a crowded contest.
Mayoral:
• Charlotte, NC Mayor: Both Democrat Jennifer Roberts and Republican Edwin Peacock are out with new polls arguing that they're in good shape for the Nov. 3 general. Roberts' survey comes from Lake Research Partners and it gives her a 52-35 lead. The Peacock survey was conducted by Victory Enterprises and has the two tied 40-40. It's probably not a good sign for Peacock that he doesn't have a poll handy giving him any sort of lead.
Other Races:
• MS-AG: Attorney General Jim Hood is the last statewide elected Democrat left in the Deep South, and Republicans hope that former assistant U.S. Attorney Mike Hurst will unseat him on Nov. 3. Hood's team is arguing that he's in good shape, and they've released the toplines of a poll showing him beating Hurst 57-35. We've confirmed with Harrison Hickman of Hickman Analytics that his firm conducted the poll. Hickman also supplied some key details that were missing from Hood's press release: the sample size (501) and the field dates (Oct. 4 to 6). The only other poll we've seen was a May Mason-Dixon survey that gave Hood a 55-40 lead.
While state Republicans want to win here, they don't seem to be doing much to help Hurst. The Clarion-Ledger's Geoff Pender recently noted that Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and state House Speaker Philip Gunn are devoting most of their attention towards legislative races, while Gov. Phil Bryant has sent very little money to Hurst. However, Democrats can take absolutely nothing for granted in a state as red as Mississippi, especially in an off year where turnout will not be good.
Grab Bag:
• Canada: Our neighbors to the north are holding federal elections on Monday for the first time since 2011, and a decade of Conservative rule in Canada might finally come to an end. Polling shows the historically centrist Liberal Party with the lead, while the Tories are in second and the left-wing New Democratic Party has dropped to third. But given how close things are, combined with the difficulty of turning national polls into firm seat projections, it's still hard to say who will wind up on top and by how much.
To get fully up to speed, you'll want to read David Beard's detailed analysis, which takes a look back at recent history to see how Canada's gotten to where it is, and a look forward at what might happen on Election Day. And join us at Daily Kos Elections when polls close at 7 PM ET Monday night for our liveblog—it'll be an exciting one!
• Demographics: If you spend any time puttering around mashing up demographic data and voting behavior data looking for correlations, any time you find an 0.66 correlation on anything, you sit up and take notice. Courtesy of Richard Florida at CityLab, we've found one of those rare beasts ... and it's one of the least likely things you might think of: the rate of deaths from automobile accidents. In other words, if you're in a red state, you're much likelier to die in a car crash than you are in a blue state.
There are a lot of ways to speculate about why that's the case. For one thing, household incomes tend to be lower in red states (dovetailing with education levels, but also the types of jobs that are usually available there), meaning people are likelier to be driving around in older, more poorly-maintained cars with fewer safety features.
But also there's the matter of density. People log fewer miles in the car in blue states, because destinations are likelier to be nearby, and practically speaking, heavier levels of traffic in dense areas are likely to keep you from reaching speeds where a wreck is more likely to be fatal. There's also a policy element: The red states tend to have higher speed limits, again, legally allowing people to reach speeds where a wreck is likelier to be fatal.
It's also possible there's a statistical fluke at work that would disappear at a different level of analysis. For instance, if you zoomed in to county-level analysis instead of states, you might find that rural counties have higher death rates than urban counties, regardless of whether those rural counties are red or blue. Similarly, the correlation might dwindle if you changed the key number from "deaths per 100,000 population" to something like "deaths per miles driven per capita." Still, it's a very interesting finding that pulls together a lot of the cultural differences between various American regions, all into one set of numbers.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.