Republican David Vitter
Most polls have shown Republican David Vitter easily advancing into the Louisiana gubernatorial runoff with Democrat John Bel Edwards, but Market Research Insight has consistently shown Scott Angelle, another Republican, within striking distance of Vitter. And sure enough, two more MRI polls show Vitter in danger of losing his runoff spot to Angelle in Saturday's jungle primary.
The first MRI poll gives Edwards 38 percent of the vote but shows Vitter edging Angelle only 20-16; Republican Jay Dardenne is close behind with 14. This survey, which was paid for by John Georges and several other businessmen, was conducted Oct. 14 through Oct. 16. (Hat-tip and a major thank you to Andrew Tuozzolo, who helped us track down this poll.)
Another source has also directed us to another MRI poll, though it's unclear who MRI's client is this time. This survey shows the race for the second-place runoff spot slightly closer: Vitter beats Angelle 19-17, while Dardenne is still at 14. (Edwards is safely ahead at 36.) This poll was conducted Oct. 15 to Oct. 19, but it's not clear if it's entirely separate from the first one or if it's part of a rolling tracker.
In the midst of all these polls, New Orleans-based investigative reporter Jason Berry published an interview with Wendy Ellis, a former prostitute who alleged that in 2000, she became pregnant with Vitter's baby and that he exhorted her to abort it. If this story, which first hit on Oct. 18 and is so far unsubstantiated, is doing Vitter any damage, neither of MRI's polls were in the field long enough to fully capture it.
So perhaps MRI is seeing something no one else is picking up on and Vitter is in real danger on Saturday. Ellis' story could also make things unpredictable. Still, it's going to be very hard for Angelle or Dardenne to win a spot in the runoff as long as they keep splitting the anti-Vitter GOP vote. In any case, we'll know once and for all where things stand on Saturday.