Donald Trump addressed Ben Carson's lead in recent Iowa polling Tuesday morning on MSNBC's
Morning Joe, saying "I don't quite get it. I was No. 1 pretty much in Iowa from the beginning, and I would say we're doing very well there. So I'm a little bit surprised." The Donald has something else to not quite get and be a little bit surprised by now: a national poll showing him behind Carson. The latest
New York Times/CBS News poll finds Carson with 26 percent support and Trump at 22 percent. It's the first time Trump hasn't led since the organizations began polling the race in July.
Carson has risen and Trump fallen by five points each since the last New York Times/CBS News poll, but there is a bright spot for Trump:
The new poll found that Mr. Trump’s supporters are firmer in their support than Mr. Carson’s. A majority of Trump supporters, 55 percent, said their minds were made up. But 80 percent of Carson backers said it was too early to say for sure that they would eventually support him.
That certainly backs up the view that Carson is a flavor of the week or month who won't go the distance. Still, Trump has based so much of the logic of his candidacy on being a winner—a winner in business and entertainment who is dominant in the polls despite his lack of political experience—that losing that claim is a major blow. Struggling and continuing to work to be on top is not so much his language.
As for the rest of the field, they continue to look very very small. Marco Rubio is at eight percent; Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina are at seven percent; and Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, and John Kasich are tied at four percent. Of course, it's still very early and only 28 percent of the voters polled said their minds were completely made up.