Mike Huckabee
Another Republican debate is looming on the horizon (Wednesday evening; main event at 8 PM ET, undercard at 6 PM ET), and the stage(s) will still be very crowded. No one has dropped out since Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker did so in September, despite the increasingly pathetic showings of several of the candidates. Instead of talking about leaving the race, though, candidates like Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee are
explaining why it makes total sense to stay in, Dave Weigel and Jose Delreal report:
“In [South Carolina and Iowa] we’re heavily invested and truly believe that it’s critical for us to put in serious ground operations,” Huckabee said. “If you don’t win early states, you’re not going to be the nominee. I don’t care what the polls are right now; winning early states is all about getting organized, getting people to those caucuses and primaries.”
True, but winning in Iowa in 2008 didn't do much for Huckabee long-term, so he's kind of his own counter-argument.
Every candidate who barely qualified for Wednesday’s debate has a version of this argument. In Las Vegas, Paul insisted that polls showing him lagging in the Nevada caucuses were “not real polls of who’s going to vote,” but “polls of the undecided.” The Kasich and Christie campaigns are buoyed by polls that show New Hampshire primary voters viewing them more favorably as they grind their way through pancake breakfasts and Chamber of Commerce dinners.
So Rand Paul wants to unskew the polls, and Kasich and Christie are pointing to voters viewing them more favorably, but gloss over the fact that
the percentage of New Hampshire voters who say they're going to actually vote for Christie has been falling for basically as long as he's been included in polls for the race, while Kasich peaked back in late August. On August 24, the Huffington Post Pollster aggregate put Kasich at 8.9 percent and Christie at 4.3 percent. Today, it puts them at 7.3 percent and 3.2 percent. They may be viewed more favorably, but it sure hasn't translated to an upswing in those numbers yet.
This is a very volatile race with a ridiculous number of candidates. Lots of things could happen! But Mike Huckabee managing to climb from his current tenth place in Iowa and then turn an Iowa win into the victory that so resoundingly eluded him in 2008? Chris Christie climbing up in New Hampshire despite his expected very weak showing in Iowa and then ... doing what, exactly in South Carolina and Nevada?
It really is testament to the kind of ego required to run for president in the first place.