While this diary may be considered a “rant”--and thus not usually conveyed in a “stand-alone” format here--I think its message needs to be heard now more than ever before. I say this in light of last night’s Democratic loss of the Kentucky Governorship race to Republican Tea Party candidate Matt Bevin--who won by nearly nine points despite just about every polling firm predicting that the Democratic candidate Jack Conway would emerge as the victor.
While I am upset and even devastated by the Democratic losses of last night, I am not the least bit shocked by them. As a sixty-something-year-old-political junkie, I didn't believe for one minute any of the polls that predicted that the Democratic candidate would win the Kentucky's Governor’s race. The reason that I doubted all of these predictions is simple: This is America in 2015--and the Electorate that exists today is not the same Electorate that existed anywhere in America when I was growing up in the 1950s, 1960s or even the ‘70s. It no longer matters that a candidate like Matt Bevin may appear as a wild and crazy Tea Party member who wants to dismantle the Kentucky version of Obamacare--or Kynect--which so many Kentucky residents themselves have come to embrace. The bottom line is that a growing number of voters throughout America in 2015 have become increasingly more Republican. They will vote for any candidate with an “R” after its name--plain and simple.
In other words, the Republicans have won the Culture Wars they started four or five decades ago. For a growing percentage of people, the Democratic Party has become synonymous with "Guvment"--and that is all that matters. (This is especially true of white voters, but it is by no means inclusive of only them.) For many voters, "Guvment" equals folks who want to take away their guns, or give everyone in America a free abortion, or let gay folks marry one another in public places, or whatever updated issue you want to put in the blanks here. Furthermore, with such a large number of Americans obtaining their version of “reality” from “Faux News,” it does not appear as if things are going to turn around for a long time now. Why not? Because these are the folks who get out and vote. The Republican Party figured out long ago that if you gin up people with enough fear, hatred, paranoia, or whatever, that they will somehow make it to the ballot box.
This is something that seemingly few “pundits” and even “pollsters” understand, including those on the Left. Unfortunately, most pollsters and pundits do not have a grasp upon just how much hate and anger is out there. Yes, they know that candidates like Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, or even Mike Huckabee have made a splash in the polls with their Tea Party rhetoric, especially when they embrace the hate-speech of a person like Kim Davis of Kentucky. But what pundits and pollsters aren’t able to measure is just how many voters will mask these feelings--that is, until they go to the voting booth. Thus, when a pollster or an individual contacts them about how they plan to vote, the individual is often reluctant to tell them that they are going to vote for the Republican candidate, especially if the Republican candidate has an angry or aggressive demeanor, or is known to have had a series of extra-marital affairs, or reportedly has a drug arrest even if it has been “expunged.” Furthermore, it is quite likely that a more educated or affluent voter could be reluctant to openly state who they are going to vote for --especially if the Republican candidate has been race-baiting or using divisive language, even if ever so subtly. Such a voter may feel that it is not “nice” to acknowledge their support of a candidate like this. But when these same individuals are alone in their voting booth, they vote straight "R."
I wish the Democrats would begin to realize this very real trend in the American Electorate. I say this above all because I fear that things do not bode well for the 2016 Election--no matter which candidate gets the Democratic nomination for President and no matter what the polls end up predicting. We Democrats can continue to delude ourselves that the Republican Party is in shambles and that the 2016 Political Season is emerging as yet another Republican Clown Show. Nevertheless, more and more Republicans are taking over State Legislatures and Governors’ Mansions--where they are free to enact more and more legislation “designed” by ALEC and the likes of the Koch Brothers. The bottom line is that the Democratic Party has much to be alarmed about for next year’s elections--up and down the ballot.
I have volunteered for Democratic candidates in just about every election since 1968--when I stood on the street corners of Downtown Chicago as a teenager campaigning for Senator Eugene McCarthy and his anti-war platform. If you fast forward to today, I am still an Illinois resident that is active in our Democratic Party. I have travelled as a volunteer all over the Midwest, including Indiana, Wisconsin and Iowa in 2008 and 2012 where I campaigned for President Obama and other Democratic candidates. I know that the Democrats keep saying that the demographics of America are changing--and that the trends I am talking about in the Electorate will not last forever. But I somehow do not share this optimism. I personally live in one of the most ethnically-diverse communities in Illinois--or in America for that matter. And yet, I have seen my home state of Illinois turn redder and redder over the last decade.
Democrats everywhere need to wake up and quit deluding themselves. For starters, Democratic candidates should not put too much stock in polling figures--no matter how rosy the numbers may look for them. Yes, the American Electorate may one day become more Democratic-leaning--perhaps in three or four decades. In the meantime, the damage that the Republican Party will have inflicted upon our country and upon our environment will be irreversible--and not just in Kentucky.
2:30 PM PT: Please note that in Delver's comments below, he/she inserted a link to an article in "Crooks and Liars" that specifically discusses actual voter turnout data in yesterday's Kentucky elections. It definitely raises questions about the voting machines that have been used in Kentucky and possible discrepancies that may arise from reviewing the data on voter turnout. This piece is extremely interesting and well worth reading, especially since the writer discusses an intention to follow up on the subject. Here is the link to this insightful article: http://crooksandliars.com/...