Leading Off:
• LA-Gov: Two new polls of Louisiana's bizarre gubernatorial runoff popped up on Thursday finding Democrat John Bel Edwards with a substantial lead on Republican David Vitter, while one survey (for the conservative blog The Hayride) showed Edwards with the smallest edge he's had since the primary. What exactly is going on here? First, to the Pollmobile!
Florida-based pollster Market Research Insight has Edwards ahead 52-38, similar to his 54-38 margin two weeks ago. Not to be outdone, the University of New Orleans, in its first-ever survey of the race, shows Edwards with a Popeye-sized 56-34 advantage. But The Hayride's numbers, from Republican pollster MarblePort Research, put Edwards on top by just a 48-42 spread. For what it's worth, MRI was the only outfit that realized Vitter would only narrowly make it into the second round; MarblePort had him winning a spot handily.
At this point, though, we're going to say something you probably never expected we'd say: The only poll that matters is on Election Day. Have we lost our marbles? Not hardly—it's the political world that's gone crazy. For starters, we've been burned a lot by wrong-headed red-state polling lately, and we aren't just talking about Kentucky earlier this month (though man were they off: Auditor Adam Edelen, who lost his re-election bid, said that internals he saw were 15 points too favorable for Democrats). We also saw how badly polls performed in many other states last year: Kansas, Arkansas, Kentucky (again), Georgia ... the list is distressingly long.
But even more importantly, neither candidate is acting as though he has any kind of discernable advantage.
Edwards, in a move that was instantly legendary, savaged his opponent in jaw-dropping fashion with his ad targeting Vitter's prostitution scandal. Conventional wisdom would say that "has to mean" Edwards is trailing. But Vitter, on the other hand, spent most of the primary dodging debates ... and then agreed to two formal debates with Edwards ahead of the runoff. When does an incumbent (or in this case, a de facto incumbent) with a healthy lead in a state that heavily favors his own party ever consent to that?
So we're in a situation where we feel we can't trust the polls coming into this contest, and where none of the body language from either campaign confirms this already difficult-to-trust polling. The uncertainty in this race that we face as analysts is about as high as it ever gets. We could be in for an epic polling fail and Edwards could still win. Vitter could also just as easily pull this one off, much like Matt Bevin did. Or hell, maybe Louisiana really does simply hate David Vitter that much and he's about to go down to a blistering defeat.
We just don't know. And since we're in a position like this, we feel our race rating has to reflect this uncertainty. Therefore, we're changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup. That does not mean we necessarily think this race will be close. It might be. But truly anything at all could happen here on Nov. 21.
The GOP is also keeping their foot on the gas as the runoff approaches. The pro-Vitter group Fund for Louisiana’s Future is out with another ad that ties Edwards to Obama. This one attacks Obama on energy, and calls Edwards “a strong Obama supporter.” The RGA also links the two Democrats, arguing Edwards will continue “Obama’s failed policies.”
And after spending years talking as little about his prostitution scandal as possible, Vitter is out with his second ad this week that stresses forgiveness. This commercial stars Vitter and Duck Dynasty star Willie Robertson. Robertson tells viewers that while Vitter has made some mistakes, “who hasn’t? The whole story of the bible is about redemption.” Vitter then says what defines people is how they get up and earn redemption, before arguing that Louisiana needs to get up too. Again, it’s pretty icky that Vitter’s comparing his own sex scandal to Louisiana’s financial problems.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: On Thursday, ex-Aurora City Councilor Ryan Frazier announced that he would oppose Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet. A few years ago, Frazier was seen as a rising star in GOP politics. However, he lost an expensive 2010 contest for the 7th Congressional District 53-42, and lost the mayoral race a year later. National Republicans haven’t been very impressed with their choices here, but we’ll see if the NRSC consolidates behind Frazier or keeps looking for a stronger candidate.
Frazier joins conservative state Sen. Tim Neville and rich guy Robert Blaha in the primary. The National Journal recently noted that Frazier has some pretty moderate views for today’s GOP: He’s defended background checks for gun purchases and doesn’t want the government to prevent women from choosing to get abortions. Frazier’s stances could help in a general, but expect his GOP rivals to paint him as a dreaded liberal.
• FL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy continues to unleash a long string of notable endorsements, with the latest coming from the Florida branch of AFSCME, which has 15,000 members. Just a couple of weeks ago, Murphy also secured the support of the 38,000-strong Florida Teamsters. Murphy faces fellow Rep. Alan Grayson for the Democratic nomination.
Gubernatorial:
• WV-Gov: The United Mine Workers of America has endorsed billionaire Jim Justice, who faces state Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler in the Democratic primary. Justice has a history of late-fees and safety violations at his coal mines, so the UMWA’s nod is a little surprising. However, the UMWA’s leadership praised Justice as someone who has always been friendly to unions. Kessler and Republican Bill Cole are likely to hit Justice on mine safety, and the UMWA’s nod could help blunt the attack.
House:
• AZ-02: Former Democratic state Rep. Matt Heinz got a late-ish start this cycle, and we weren't terribly impressed with what he brought to the race given his quixotic run against then-Rep. Ron Barber back in 2012 (which saw Heinz get pounded 57 different ways, ending with an 82-18 loss). But Heinz actually outraised his primary rival, state Rep. Victoria Steele, by a sizable margin in the last quarter ($201,000 to just $57,000), and on Thursday, he scored an endorsement from Rep. Ruben Gallego. Gallego is only a freshman, and his district isn't near the 2nd, so it's not as though his support alone can move many votes. But if Heinz can continue to rack up more backing from establishment figures, then that should translate into better fundraising and also serve as a signal to other important players than Heinz is the guy.
• CA-20: On Thursday, Democratic Rep. Sam Farr announced that he would not seek re-election. This seat, which is dominated by Monterey County and also includes most of Santa Cruz, backed Obama 71-26, and there’s no doubt Team Blue will easily hold it. In fact, there’s a decent chance that two credible Democrats will advance past the June top-two primary and keep battling all the way until the general election.
Back in 2013, Monterey County Deputy District Attorney Jimmy Panetta, the son of former Rep. and ex-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, talked about running when Farr retired. Carmel Mayor Jason Burnett also considered running if Farr retired that year, and he’s also been mentioned as a possible 2016 candidate. The Monterey Weekly also names state Senate Majority Leader Bill Monning and termed-out Assemblyman Luis Alejo as possible contenders, while Roll Call mentions Assemblyman Mark Stone.
• FL-21, 22: It never seemed very likely that Democratic state Rep. Kristin Jacobs, who lost the 2012 primary to now-Rep. Lois Frankel, would challenge either Frankel or Rep. Ted Deutch. And sure enough, Jacobs has ruled out running in either redrawn South Florida seat this year. However, lawyer Stephanie Toothaker, who is close to the Graham family, is considering challenging one of the two Democratic incumbents in the primary.
• ME-02, NY-01: The Democratic group House Majority PAC is out with their first TV ads of the cycle, targeting freshmen Republicans Bruce Poliquin and Lee Zeldin respectively. The spots aren’t going to get many eyeballs though: The combined buy is just $75,000 worth of TV and mail.
• TX-15: The Monitor reports that Democratic Rep. Ruben Hinojosa will announce his retirement on Friday. Hinojosa is 75, so his departure would not be a surprise. This district, which is dominated by McAllen’s Hidalgo County on the Mexican border, backed Obama 57-42, so it should be safely blue in a presidential year.
The Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston puts her great mentioner cap on and gives us some potential candidates. Democratic operatives mention ex-state Rep. Veronica Gonzales, state Rep. Mando Martinez, Hidalgo County Commissioner Joseph Palacios, and Hidalgo County District Attorney Ricardo Rodriguez.
• WY-AL: On Thursday, four-term GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis announced her retirement. Lummis’ departure was very unexpected: Lummis said she would run for the Senate in 2014 if Mike Enzi retired, meaning she was ready to stay in DC until at least 2020.
This seat contains the entire state of Wyoming, and there are approximately a bajillion Republicans who could run here. Attention will immediately turn to Liz Cheney, who ran against Enzi for a few months last cycle before bailing in early 2014. Romney carried the Cowboy State 69-28, and there’s little doubt that Team Red will easily hold on here.
Other Races:
• LA-LG, AG: While the University of New Orleans and MarblePort show radically different numbers for the gubernatorial race (see our LA-Gov item above), they strangely agree on the lieutenant governor’s race. UNO gives Republican Billy Nungesser a 49-39 lead over Democrat Kip Holden, while MarblePort has him up 48-38. An earlier JMC Analytics poll gave Nungesser a tiny 40-39 edge, while GOP pollster Triumph Campaigns had him leading 49-38.
MarblePort also tests the all GOP attorney general race between incumbent Buddy Caldwell and tea partier Jeff Landry, and gives Landry a 46-39 lead. JMC gave Landry a smaller 38-34 advantage.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.