March 1
• AL-01: Bradley Byrne (R): Gulf Coast
Bradley Byrne beat tea partying businessman Dean Young 52-48 in a special 2013 primary runoff for this safely red seat, and Young is back for a rematch. But despite his near-win, Young isn’t going to have an easy time toppling Byrne.
The congressman has been a low-key conservative who doesn't appear to have upset the GOP base during his time in the House, and this time, he’ll have incumbency on his side. Alabama's congressional primary also coincides with the March presidential primary, so Byrne should benefit from more casual voters showing up and supporting the name they recognize. Young also never showed much of a talent for fundraising and doesn't appear to be capable of self-funding much more than a low six-figure amount.
March 8
• MS-04: Steven Palazzo (R): Gulf Coast, Hattiesburg
Steven Palazzo defeated ex-Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor in last year's GOP primary for this safely red district by a surprisingly narrow 51-43 margin, and another familiar name may challenge him. Tea partying state Sen. Chris McDaniel came very close to unseating Sen. Thad Cochran, and he hinted at the beginning of the year that Palazzo is his next target. McDaniel won re-election in early November so if he’s interested, he should start moving soon. McDaniel carried MS-04 58-42 against Cochran, and he has a fundraising base with tea partiers still angry at the party establishment about his 2014 loss. For his part, Palazzo doesn't appear to be doing much to get ready: As of late September, he only had $311,000 on hand.
March 15
• NC-02: Renee Ellmers (R): Raleigh suburbs
Renee Ellmers entered the House as an avowed tea partier in 2011, but she disappointed plenty of conservatives after she got too close to the House leadership. Ellmers only dispatched underfunded radio host Frank Roche 59-41 in last year's primary, and things haven’t gotten any better for her since then.
Back in January, Ellmers angered social conservatives when she convinced congressional leaders to yank a bill that would have restricted access to abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. Ellmers completely agreed with the idea in principle, but she feared that language in the bill that would have permitted exceptions in the case of rape only if the victim first reported her rape to law enforcement would have been electoral rat poison for her party. Naturally, that pragmatic move only helped draw Chatham County Republican Party chair Jim Duncan into the race against her in this safely red seat.
Lately, Ellmers has been dealing with unsubstantiated rumors that she had an affair with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Ellmers has denied them, but the story isn't going away. The good news for Ellmers is that her three challengers may split the anti-incumbent vote enough to secure her renomination. If no one takes more than 40 percent in the primary, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff, and it's likely that Ellmers will take at least 40 percent. (If Ellmers is so unpopular that she gets forced into a runoff, she's in real trouble.)
Duncan only raised $45,000 over the last three months but thanks in large part to some early-self funding, he has $206,000 on hand, far more than the other two non-Ellmers candidates. Roche is running again, but he only has $8,000 in the bank. Former state party communications director Kay Daly made a splash with a truly insane low-budget TV ad, but she only has $21,000 on hand. If Duncan consolidates enough support to leave Daly and Roche in the dust, that would be a major problem for Ellmers. For her part, Ellmers has $411,000 in the bank, more than her three foes put together, but not an incredible sum.
• NC-03: Walter Jones (R): North Carolina coast
Walter Jones has been on the outs with the GOP establishment for years. Jones went from ardent Iraq War supporter to one of the few congressional Republicans to oppose the conflict, and he voted for Wall Street regulation. Well-funded GOP groups rallied behind former George W. Bush aide Taylor Griffin last year, but Jones pulled off a narrow 51-45 win. Griffin is back for another try in this solidly Republican seat.
Jones’ poor relationship with the establishment has hampered his fundraising, and he only has $179,000 on hand. However, Griffin isn’t exactly a financial dynamo himself. Jones may also benefit from his role in the recent House leadership fight. He released a letter last month telling anyone who committed "misdeeds"to withdraw from the congressional leadership races. Jones finally admitted that his letter was referring to unsubstantiated rumors that House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Renee Ellmers had an affair, and it may have played a part in ending McCarthy's speakership campaign. Some Republicans think that Jones' move has helped reinforce his outsider image.
• NC-11: Mark Meadows (R): Western North Carolina
Before House Speaker John Boehner resigned, Mark Meadows was a key member of a plot to remove him. Rep. Patrick McHenry, who represents a neighboring seat, reportedly was looking for someone to challenge Meadows, though McHenry publicly denied it. In any case, it’s far from clear if Meadows will face a competitive primary in this dependably Republican seat, especially now that Boehner is gone.
• NC-12: Alma Adams (D): Charlotte, Greensboro
Freshman Alma Adams' main problem in this safely blue district is geography: Adams hails from the Greensboro area, but far more primary votes are cast out of Charlotte. Adams has been working to get her name out in Charlotte, but one old foe is hoping he can beat her before she becomes entrenched. Ex-state Sen. Malcolm Graham, who lost the 2014 primary to Adams 44-24, is talking about running again. However, Graham proved to be a weak fundraiser last time, and it's not going to be easy for him to unseat Adams now that she has incumbency on her side.
• OH-14: David Joyce (R): Northeast Ohio
David Joyce turned back a primary challenge from tea partying state Rep. Matt Lynch by an underwhelming 55-45 margin, and Lynch is seeking a rematch. However, while Lynch said that he was jumping in early to get a head start on fundraising, he only brought in $36,000, and he trails Joyce $688,000 to $43,000 in cash on hand.
Joyce is also close to well-funded groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and they'll likely spend big to help him if they think he'll need it. Joyce will also have one advantage he didn't have last time: He was nominated by the county party leaders in 2012 after Rep. Steve LaTourette dropped out after the primary, so he'd never gone before primary voters until last year. Romney only carried this seat 51-48 so Democrats can make a play here even if the less extreme Joyce prevails, but no one has stepped up yet.
• IL-14: Randy Hultgren (R): Chicago exurbs
Randy Hultgren has been a bland but reliable member of the House GOP, but he may face a well-known former colleague. Joe Walsh, a tea partier who served from 2011 to 2013, has been eyeing a primary challenge against Sen. Mark Kirk, but he's reportedly considering facing Hultgren instead. Walsh's extremism could help him in a primary but Hultgren hasn't done much to offend Republican voters, and GOP leaders may come to the aid of the incumbent if it means keeping the unreliable Walsh out of the House. Romney won this seat 54-44.
• IL-15: John Shimkus (R): Southeastern Illinois
Ten-term incumbent John Shimkus has a reliably conservative voting record and he doesn't appear to have done much to offend his base at home. However, state Sen. Kyle McCarter has announced that he will challenge the incumbent. McCarter is close to the influential social conservative group Family-PAC, and he may be able to rally primary voters who are restless after 20 years of Shimkus. Shimkus also hasn't faced a real race since 2002, so he may be rusty.
Chaka Fattah was indicted for corruption over the summer, but it's anyone's guess what will happen in this safely blue seat. Fattah's trial isn't scheduled until after the primary, and he's made it clear that he intends to seek re-election.
Fattah faces four Democratic primary rivals. State Rep. Dwight Evans looks like Fattah’s most formidable challenger. Evans has a strong base of support in Northwest Philadelphia, and he’s an ally of both Gov. Tom Wolf and Mayor-elect Jim Kenney. Another state representative, state Brian Sims, is also running. Sims is well-known in LGBT circles (Sims was the first openly gay Pennsylvania state legislator), so he may be able to raise money. However, while Fattah, Evans, and most of the primary electorate are black, Sims is white, which could hamper him. Ward leader Dan Muroff and Lower Merion Township Commissioner Brian Gordon, who are also both white, are also running.
Fattah has almost no money available, but he can’t be counted out. Fattah only needs a simple plurality to win, and his four challengers may split the vote enough to secure him renomination. He also still has powerful friends in Philadelphia Democratic politics.
• PA-09 : Bill Shuster (R): Southcentral Pennsylvania
House Transportation Chair Bill Shuster has a long history of securing appropriations for his safely red rural seat, something that doesn't play too well among tea party types these days. Shuster only took 53 percent in his 2014 primary against businessmen Arthur Halvorson and Travis Schooley, and he recently earned some bad press after he fast-tracked a bill favored by a lobbyist he was dating.
The good news for Shuster is that Halvorson is running again. Halvorson didn’t raise much money last time, and he’s not off to a good start this cycle either, while Shuster has $1,312,000 on hand. Halvorson also made some strange strategic decisions last time, bizarrely declaring at one pointthat, "We are out door-to-door and we are touching people and voters, and we are buying love with touches and Mr. Shuster's big money doesn't buy love." Shuster can’t take renomination for granted after his performance last time, but he looks like the clear favorite.
May 10
• WV-02: Alex Mooney (R): Central West Virginia
Alex Mooney attracted plenty of scorn last cycle when he moved from Maryland to West Virginia to run for the House, but the controversy wasn't enough to deny him a win. However, wealthy pharmacy owner Ken Reed, who lost the 2014 primary 36-22, is running again.
Mooney has a small $257,000 warchest, so Reed could outspend him. However, Reed may have a tough time getting traction this time. Mooney moved to West Virginia from Maryland in 2013 to run for the House, but the carpetbagging charge won't be as fresh this time. Romney carried this seat 60-38 but Democrat Nick Casey is considering a rematch after narrowly losing to Mooney last time.
June 7
• CA-17: Mike Honda (D): San Jose, Fremont
Mike Honda beat back a challenge from fellow Democrat and former Obama administration official Ro Khanna, winning by 52-48 last November, and Khanna wasted little time announcing that he's running again. Just like last time, Khanna has opened with a fundraising lead, and he's arguing that his youth will make him a better representative than the 74-year-old Honda. This is a safely blue seat and we're likely to see another Honda-Khanna general election next year.
The House Ethics Committee has also been investigating Honda, and they recently released a report saying they had "substantial reason to believe" that Honda had improperly used government staff and resources for campaign purposes. Honda doesn't have much room for error, and this matter seems to be doing him some damage. Several influential California Democrats who remained neutral last year, including Senate leader Kevin de León and San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, are backing Khanna this time.
• NJ-07: Leonard Lance (R): Central New Jersey
Rep. Leonard Lance, one of the few moderates left in the GOP caucus, faced a surprisingly tough primary last year. Lance had easily defeated perennial candidate David Larsen in both 2010 and 2012, but the underfunded Larsen held him to just a 54-46 win in 2014. Larsen is running for a fourth time, and he’s at least worth keeping an eye on after what happened last time. The good news for Lance is that another Some Dude candidate, York Cook, is also running, so he could split the anti-Lance vote. Still, if Lance disappoints for the second time in a row, he may attract a much tougher challenger for 2018. Romney won this seat 53-46.
• SC-01: Mark Sanford (R): Charleston, South Carolina coast
Mark Sanford appears to have revived his political career after the scandal that closed out his final years as governor, but an intra-party foe will put voters' forgiveness to the test. GOP state Rep. Jenny Horne made national news over the summer for her speech calling for the Confederate battle flag to be removed from the state House grounds, and she’s announced that she’ll challenge Sanford.
We'll see if Horne can get any mileage out of Sanford's infamous Appalachian Trail hike, but the whole scandal will be seven years old by Election Day. Sanford will also have incumbency on his side, and there will be plenty of conservative voters unhappy with Horne's role in the Confederate battle flag debate. Romney won 58-40 here.
June 28
• NY-22: Richard Hanna (R): Binghamton, Utica
Richard Hanna is one of the few genuine moderates left in the GOP caucus, and his apostasies almost cost him in last year's primary. Hanna turned back an underfunded challenge from Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney only 54-46. Tenney has expressed interest in running again, though it’s unclear if the outside conservative groups that stayed out of the race last year would get involved this time. Romney only narrowly won this seat, but Democrats didn't even field a candidate last time.
• KS-01: Tim Huelskamp (R): Western Kansas
Tim Huelskamp has been a thorn in the side of his party's leadership, and his tea partying style hasn't served him well at home. He attempted to cut farm subsidies during the last Congress, and angry agricultural interests took notice. Huelskamp turned back little-known primary foe Alan LaPolice only 55-45, and he faces a potentially more serious challenge from physician Roger Marshall.
Marshall actually out-raised the incumbent during the last two fundraising quarters, though Huelskamp still has far more cash on hand. If farm industries spend against Huelskamp, he could be in real trouble, but it's too early to say if that will happen. LaPolice is also running again, and he could split the anti-Huelskamp vote with Marshall enough to secure the congressman renomination in this safely red seat.
• MI-13: John Conyers (D): Detroit
John Conyers has held this safely blue seat since 1965, but his last two campaigns didn't go smoothly. Conyers only took 55 percent of the vote in 2012 after redistricting left him with a very different district. And while Conyers easily beat his little-known foe last year, he was briefly thrown off the ballot for not having enough valid signatures. (The law that got him removed was quickly overturned in court.) Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey has announced that she will challenge Conyers. For all his recent problems, it's going to be very challenging to unseat an institution like Conyers, but Winfrey could make things worth watching.
• MO-01: Lacy Clay (D): St. Louis, Ferguson
Lacy Clay has never had much of a problem securing renomination in his safely blue St. Louis-area seat, and he easily beat Russ Carnahan after the two congressmen were drawn into the same district in 2012. But in October, state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal kicked off her bid against Clay, arguing that he was barely visible during the unrest in Ferguson last year. By contrast, Chappelle-Nadal was hit with tear gas while taking part in a protest.
Most of Chappelle-Nadal's seat is in MO-01, so she'd start out with a base. Clay also has only $358,000 on hand, not a big head start. But Clay is well-connected, and he won't be easy for Chappelle-Nadal to beat. Much of the primary electorate in this seat is also white, and Clay's long service and ties to prominent white politicians like St. Louis Mayor Francis Slay could make it easier for him to appeal to this bloc than Chappelle-Nadal. A recent poll for the newsletter Missouri Scout gave Clay a massive 53-19 lead.
• TN-01: Phil Roe (R): Johnson City, Kingsport
Phil Roe narrowly unseated David Davis in the 2008 primary for this ultra-red East Tennessee seat, and Davis hasn't ruled out returning the favor. Roe has been a dependably conservative vote, and it's not clear how Davis thinks he'll win: Davis himself even admits that "Rep. Roe and I would have voted similarly in most cases."
• TN-03: Chuck Fleischmann (R): Chattanooga
Chuck Fleischmann was nominated in a surprise in 2010, and he's struggled in his subsequent primaries. Fleischmann only beat venture capitalist Weston Wamp 51-49 last year and while Wamp says he's unlikely to try again this time, state Sen. Bo Watson has been mulling a bid for months. Watson is close to Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey, so he should be able to raise some dough. However, Fleischmann has been concentrating on fundraising while Watson ponders, and it looks like he'll have the resources he'll need if he faces another tough contest. Watson also hasn’t said much about his plans in months, so he may not be interested in a tough bid. Romney won 63-35 here.
• TN-04: Scott DesJarlais (R): Murfreesboro, East Tennessee
Scott DesJarlais looked doomed last year. In late 2012, voters learned that the married congressman has had affairs with several of his patients while he was a practicing physician, and tried to convince at least one to get an abortion. But DesJarlais's primary foe Jim Tracy ran an unfocused campaign, and DesJarlais pulled off a 38-vote win.
Tracy also hasn't quite ruled out another bid, and he could take some critical anti-DesJarlais votes from Starrett. DesJarlais' scandal will also be almost four years old by the time voters go to the polls, and more of his constituents may be willing to forgive him next year. Romney won 65-33 here.
• TN-09: Steve Cohen (D): Memphis
• FL-03: Ted Yoho (R): Northcentral Florida
While court-ordered redistricting is likely to keep this seat safely red, tea partying Rep. Ted Yoho is likely to see some major changes to his district. That could be bad news for him: Yoho has never been close to the GOP establishment, and an ambitious candidate could decide to run against him while he's weak. In fact, Yoho did the same thing in 2012 when he narrowly unseated incumbent Cliff Stearns. But no one has made any noises about running yet, and things will likely be on hold until there’s a final map.
• FL-05: Corrine Brown (D): Jacksonville
The current version of Corrine Brown's seat stretches north to south from Jacksonville to Orlando, but redistricting is all but certain to dramatically reshape this seat into an east to west district. That opens the door to a Tallahassee-area candidate to challenge Brown in what will still be a safely blue seat, and ex-state Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson is thinking about going for it.
Fellow Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham's 2nd District is likely to be made safely red, and Graham could challenge Brown here instead, though she doesn’t seem to be gearing up for a campaign here. Brown also hasn’t ruled out running in the Orlando-area 10th District instead, where she’d face at least two other credible Democrats. Brown has very little money in the bank, but her name recognition could save her in either seat, especially in a crowded race. However, Brown is focusing on a long shot legal bid to save her current seat, so she may not have time to prepare for a tough campaign until it’s too late.
• FL-11: Dan Webster (R): Tampa suburbs
Redistricting transformed Dan Webster’s 10th District into a safely blue seat, and he’s been looking for a way to stay in the House. He may have gotten lucky: Current 11th District representative Richard Nugent is retiring, and Webster is considering running here instead.
Webster already represents about half of this safely red seat, but he won’t have a free pass if he campaigns here. Justin Grabelle, Nugent’s former chief of staff, quickly kicked off a bid for this seat after his boss announced his retirement, and Nugent wasted no time endorsing him. Other local Republicans could also run here.
• FL-21, 22: Ted Deutch & Lois Frankel (D): South Florida
Redistricting is set to dramatically change Democratic Reps. Ted Deutch and Lois Frankel's South Florida seats, and while the two incumbents have pledged not to oppose one another, an ambitious Democrat is considering a campaign for one of the new safely blue seats. Attorney Stephanie Toothaker, who served as a special counsel to former Sen. Bob Graham, says she's strongly considering running for Congress—just where exactly, she's not sure yet.
But Frankel and especially Deutch have been preparing for a primary challenge. Frankel raised $354,000 over the last three months and has $660,000; Deutch brought in a monster $636,000 during that time and has over $1 million on hand.
• FL-24: Frederica Wilson (D): Miami, Miami Gardens
Rep. Frederica Wilson doesn't appear to have done anything to upset Democratic voters in her safely blue Miami-area seat, but she's earned a primary challenger anyway. Randal Hill, who played for the Miami Dolphins in the 1995 and 1996 seasons, quit his job as an agent at the Department of Homeland Security to take on the three-term incumbent.
Hill is portraying Wilson as someone who's fine on the issues, but does nothing for the district. Wilson only has $297,000 on hand, but Hill has just $4,000, so he may not be able to get much traction. Wilson turned back a well-funded 2012 primary challenge from businessman Rudy Moise by a 66-34 margin, and she had no trouble winning renomination last year.
• AZ-04: Paul Gosar (R): Northwest Arizona
Paul Gosar hasn't done much to anger conservative GOP voters, and it's unlikely he'll face a serious challenge in this safely red seat. However, there have been rumors that ex-state House Speaker and 2014 AZ-01 nominee Andy Tobin is looking to run here, and he hasn't ruled anything out.
• NH-01: Frank Guinta (R): Manchester
Back in May, Frank Guinta paid an FEC fine for an illegal 2010 six-figure campaign contribution. Guinta may have hoped that the problem would go away but instead, influential New Hampshire Republicans called for his resignation. Guinta insists that he'll seek re-election but he's going to have a tough time getting renominated. Former University of New Hampshire Business School Dean Dan Innis, who lost to Guinta 50-40 in last year's primary, has kicked off his bid. The GOP establishment is largely behind Innis, while Guinta's fundraising has dried up.
However, Innis may not get a clear shot at Guinta. State Rep. Pam Tucker, who has ties to Granite State conservatives, recently formed an exploratory committee. Businessman Rich Ashooh, who lost the 2010 primary to Guinta 32-27, is also reportedly considering, though he's been publicly silent about his plans. There’s no runoff here, so Guinta could scrape through if enough candidates get in. This is a swing district and Democrats are planning to target it no matter what, but they'd love it if they got to face a damaged Guinta.
• RI-01: David Cicilline (D): Providence
Three-term Rep. David Cicilline initially struggled with re-election after he left Providence in poor financial shape when he left the mayor's office, but he seems to have put his problems behind him. However, former Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, who succeeded Cicilline, is reportedly eyeing a primary challenge. Taveras often blamed Cicilline for the city's problems, and he'll likely make it a major issue if he gets in. However, Taveras' 2014 gubernatorial bid didn't go well, and he'll need to prove he's learned from his mistakes if he's going to beat Cicilline. Obama won 66-32 here, and this district should stay blue.