A couple days ago a Huge Hillary Fan wrote a diary trying to insinuate that Bernie Sanders did not double voter participation. She had 3 election results, all with Bernie on the ballot. When presented with the data from the 1979 election she claimed that although Bernie had more than double the number of participating voters by 1983 it didn’t count because the 1979 election was unopposed.
There was a lot of back and forth about whether it counted or not. Well, after 2 days of talking to the super helpful folks at the Burlington city hall and archives, I am back with the information and I stand by Bernie’s claim. He did double voter participation from the 1979 election. Gordon Paquette ran unopposed and received 5089 votes.
Here is a map of the 6 wards of Burlington from 1967 to 1973:
Here are the election results from every year from 1969 to 1979:
Burlington Mayoral Election 1969
Candidate |
Party |
Ward 1 |
Ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Francis J Cain |
Democrat |
762 |
616 |
514 |
1328 |
853 |
964 |
5037 |
Lyle M miller |
Republican |
253 |
321 |
398 |
707 |
419 |
320 |
2418 |
Lyle M Miller |
Independent |
54 |
99 |
116 |
152 |
108 |
50 |
579 |
Total votes |
|
1069 |
1036 |
1028 |
2187 |
1380 |
1334 |
8034
|
Candidate |
Party |
Ward 1 |
Ward 2 |
Ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1971
gordon H Paquette |
Democrat |
552 |
678 |
580 |
912 |
659 |
480 |
3861 |
frank e dion |
Republican |
383 |
475 |
386 |
1269 |
549 |
746 |
3808 |
gordon H Paquette |
Independent |
89 |
66 |
61 |
158 |
92 |
103 |
569 |
total |
|
1024 |
1219 |
1027 |
2339 |
1300 |
1329 |
8238 |
candidate |
Party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1973
gordon H Paquette |
Democrat |
750 |
687 |
657 |
1441 |
772 |
742 |
5049 |
gordon H Paquette |
Independent |
136 |
139 |
99 |
304 |
131 |
221 |
1030 |
Joseph a sullivan |
Republican |
188 |
191 |
140 |
702 |
296 |
510 |
2027 |
Joseph a sullivan |
Independent |
51 |
43 |
36 |
120 |
77 |
74 |
401 |
total |
|
1125 |
1060 |
1032 |
2567 |
1276 |
1547 |
850 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1975
gordon H Paquette |
Democrat |
697 |
496 |
532 |
1838 |
889 |
741 |
5193 |
Darcy Troville |
Socialist/Independent |
233 |
209 |
195 |
352 |
194 |
270 |
1453 |
total |
|
930 |
705 |
727 |
2190 |
1083 |
1011 |
6646 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 p1 |
ward 2 P2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1977
gordon H Paquette |
Democrat |
543 |
328 |
164 |
543 |
1190 |
616 |
527 |
3911 |
gordon H Paquette |
Independent |
95 |
40 |
12 |
89 |
236 |
99 |
140 |
711 |
c. howard porter |
Republican |
271 |
118 |
97 |
197 |
1072 |
313 |
498 |
2566 |
c. howard porter |
Con Cit |
63 |
29 |
27 |
68 |
242 |
70 |
80 |
579 |
Alfred Safstrom |
Peo Pty |
40 |
42 |
18 |
69 |
67 |
82 |
77 |
395 |
Total |
|
1012 |
557 |
318 |
966 |
2807 |
1180 |
1322 |
8162 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 p1 |
ward 2 p2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1979
gordon H Paquette |
Democrat |
588 |
253 |
173 |
549 |
1949 |
790 |
787 |
5089 |
total |
|
588 |
253 |
173 |
549 |
1949 |
790 |
787 |
5089 |
Candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1981
Bernie sanders |
I |
516 |
616 |
639 |
1045 |
610 |
609 |
4035 |
gordon paquette |
D |
504 |
358 |
458 |
1370 |
637 |
686 |
4013 |
richard bove |
T |
133 |
102 |
171 |
385 |
196 |
104 |
1091 |
joseph Mcgrath |
N |
11 |
11 |
34 |
48 |
19 |
15 |
138 |
total |
|
1164 |
1089 |
1302 |
2848 |
1462 |
1414 |
9279 |
Candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1983
Bernard sanders |
Independent |
1067 |
1210 |
1222 |
1394 |
1007 |
1042 |
6942 |
Judith b stephany |
Democrat |
547 |
387 |
393 |
1552 |
667 |
540 |
4087 |
Jim Gilson |
Republican |
231 |
190 |
135 |
731 |
384 |
621 |
2292 |
Total |
|
1845 |
1787 |
1750 |
3677 |
2058 |
2203 |
13321 |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1985
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Bernard Sanders |
Independent |
982 |
911 |
995 |
1083 |
958 |
831 |
5760 |
Brian burns |
Democrat |
438 |
272 |
312 |
1083 |
667 |
503 |
3275 |
Diane Gallagher |
Independent |
122 |
78 |
105 |
519 |
158 |
252 |
1234 |
William J murray |
L/Independent |
6 |
9 |
7 |
26 |
12 |
12 |
72 |
richard Sartelle |
Independent |
3 |
0 |
10 |
13 |
1 |
7 |
34 |
Michael E Hackett |
N/Independent |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
20 |
John F. Tatro |
Independent |
2 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
0 |
4 |
17 |
total |
|
1556 |
1272 |
1435 |
2734 |
1800 |
1612 |
10412 |
Candidate |
Party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington Mayoral Election 1987
Bernard sanders |
Independent |
1106 |
1140 |
1050 |
1547 |
1041 |
1017 |
6901 |
Paul lafayette |
Democrat |
645 |
541 |
578 |
1999 |
1040 |
791 |
5594 |
total |
|
1751 |
1681 |
1628 |
3456 |
2081 |
1808 |
12495 |
candidate |
Party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
burlington mayoral election 1989
Peter Clavelle |
Independent |
826 |
799 |
1011 |
1515 |
978 |
788 |
5917 |
nancy chioffi |
Democrat |
546 |
341 |
423 |
1686 |
982 |
646 |
4624 |
sandra l baird |
Green |
65 |
64 |
67 |
62 |
50 |
62 |
370 |
michael e hackett |
TR/Independent |
5 |
12 |
13 |
34 |
18 |
13 |
95 |
total |
|
1442 |
1216 |
1514 |
3297 |
2028 |
1509 |
11008 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington mayoral election 1991
Peter Clavelle |
PC/Independent |
722 |
681 |
943 |
1840 |
1046 |
930 |
6162 |
Haik J Bedrosian |
Independent |
78 |
73 |
89 |
395 |
123 |
107 |
865 |
Daniel H Gregory |
Independent |
47 |
47 |
69 |
211 |
80 |
68 |
522 |
Michael E Hacket |
Independent |
28 |
40 |
67 |
112 |
67 |
41 |
355 |
total |
|
875 |
841 |
1168 |
2558 |
1316 |
1146 |
7904 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
total |
Burlington mayoral election of 1993
Peter C Brownwell |
Republican |
479 |
356 |
511 |
2415 |
981 |
668 |
5410 |
Peter Clavelle |
Progressive |
765 |
603 |
721 |
1129 |
784 |
720 |
4686 |
donald l prim |
Independent |
7 |
8 |
13 |
51 |
9 |
10 |
98 |
Paul A cook |
Independent |
2 |
11 |
5 |
18 |
6 |
3 |
45 |
Edward Bickford |
Independent |
5 |
6 |
11 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
39 |
Roger R Verville |
Independent |
3 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
5 |
16 |
Matthew peter gardy |
POA/Independent |
2 |
1 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
14 |
total |
|
1263 |
987 |
1263 |
3626 |
1793 |
1412 |
10308 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
ward 7 |
total |
burlington mayoral election of 1995
Peter Clavelle |
Progressive |
768 |
698 |
830 |
645 |
747 |
799 |
568 |
5055 |
Peter C. Brownwell |
Republican |
470 |
229 |
356 |
1252 |
843 |
695 |
970 |
4815 |
paul lafayette |
Democrat |
153 |
144 |
245 |
315 |
359 |
167 |
410 |
1793 |
Michael r brown |
Independent |
1 |
15 |
8 |
2 |
7 |
3 |
6 |
42 |
Louis beaudin |
ACV/Independent |
8 |
4 |
1 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
37 |
Paul A Cook |
PFEEG/Indep |
0 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
0 |
3 |
2 |
14 |
total |
|
1400 |
1091 |
1445 |
2224 |
1962 |
1673 |
1961 |
11756 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
ward 7 |
total |
burlington mayoral election 1997
Peter Clavelle |
Progressive |
420 |
261 |
733 |
1051 |
785 |
481 |
760 |
4491 |
Louie Beaudin |
OT/Independent |
35 |
18 |
39 |
98 |
83 |
40 |
100 |
413 |
Michael r brown |
Independent |
12 |
43 |
66 |
97 |
61 |
34 |
85 |
398 |
Maja capps |
WC/Independent |
17 |
31 |
53 |
31 |
28 |
17 |
39 |
216 |
total |
|
484 |
353 |
891 |
1277 |
957 |
572 |
984 |
5518 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
ward 7 |
total |
burlington mayoral election 1999
Peter clavelle |
Progressive |
701 |
589 |
878 |
919 |
1042 |
951 |
758 |
5838 |
kurt wright |
Republican |
282 |
175 |
358 |
1037 |
626 |
401 |
956 |
3835 |
eric h brenner |
Independent |
25 |
35 |
75 |
15 |
25 |
31 |
21 |
227 |
john pius hogan |
HTA/Independent |
6 |
4 |
16 |
4 |
0 |
8 |
3 |
41 |
total |
|
1014 |
803 |
1327 |
1975 |
1693 |
1391 |
1738 |
9941 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
ward 7 |
total |
burlington mayoral election of 2001
Peter clavelle |
Progressive |
365 |
303 |
419 |
633 |
645 |
613 |
448 |
3426 |
Kevin J curley |
Republican |
181 |
133 |
229 |
754 |
367 |
237 |
763 |
2664 |
Haik Bedrosian |
Independent |
8 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
15 |
8 |
13 |
83 |
John Pius hogan |
Independent |
1 |
6 |
13 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
5 |
35 |
total |
|
555 |
455 |
674 |
1403 |
1032 |
860 |
1229 |
6208 |
candidte |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
ward 7 |
total |
burlington mayoral election 2003
Peter Clavelle |
Prog/Dem |
458 |
298 |
658 |
883 |
915 |
657 |
776 |
4645 |
Michael r brown |
Independent |
123 |
82 |
183 |
237 |
183 |
116 |
390 |
1314 |
total |
|
581 |
380 |
841 |
1120 |
1098 |
773 |
1166 |
5959 |
candidate |
party |
ward 1 |
ward 2 |
ward 3 |
ward 4 |
ward 5 |
ward 6 |
ward 7 |
total |
burlington mayoral election of 2006
bob kiss |
Progressive |
467 |
456 |
637 |
550 |
676 |
546 |
479 |
3811 |
linda miller |
Democrat |
306 |
164 |
287 |
676 |
604 |
524 |
546 |
3107 |
kevin j curley |
Republican |
154 |
115 |
213 |
757 |
351 |
258 |
763 |
2611 |
louie beaudin |
Independent |
5 |
20 |
19 |
22 |
15 |
8 |
30 |
119 |
loyal ploof |
Independent |
6 |
11 |
14 |
6 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
58 |
total |
|
938 |
766 |
1170 |
2011 |
1656 |
1343 |
1822 |
9706 |
candidate |
party |
Original |
First Elimination |
Second elimination |
total |
burlington mayoral election of 2009
bob kiss |
Progressive |
2585 |
2981(+396) |
4313(+1332) |
4313 |
kurt wright |
Republican |
2951 |
3294(+343) |
4061(+767) |
4061 |
Andy Montroll |
Democrat |
2063 |
2554(+491) |
0(-2554) |
0 |
Dan Smith |
Independent |
1306 |
0(-1306) |
0 |
0 |
Exhausted |
N/A |
0 |
|
606 |
606 |
total |
|
|
|
|
8980 |
In 2009 Burlington instituted instant runoff voting. If only our country would do the same for national and even state elections.
In 2011 Bob Kiss announced he would not run for another term.
Elections for 2012 and 2015 resulted in Miro Weinberger winning as a Democrat. He was endorsed by Peter Clavelle and Bernie Sanders in 2012. 10053 and 7677 total votes were cast in 2012 and 2015 respectively.
Here are the total votes cast in each year from 1969-2015:
Year |
Winner |
Party |
Total |
Vote Totals For 1969-2015
1969 |
francis j cain |
democrat |
8034(+0) |
1971 |
Gordon Paquette |
Democrat |
8238(+204) |
1973 |
Gordon Paquette |
Democrat |
8507(+269) |
1975 |
Gordon Paquette |
Democrat |
6646(-1861) |
1977 |
Gordon Paquette |
Democrat |
8162(+1516) |
1979 |
Gordon Paquette |
Democrat |
5089(-3073) |
1981 |
Bernard Sanders |
Independent |
9279(+4190) |
1983 |
Bernard Sanders |
Independent |
13321(+4042) |
1985 |
Bernard Sanders |
Independent |
10412(-2909) |
1987 |
Bernard Sanders |
Independent |
12495(+2083) |
1989 |
Peter clavelle |
Independent |
11008(-1487) |
1991 |
Peter clavelle |
progressive |
7904(-3104) |
1993 |
Peter c brownwell |
republican |
10308(+2404) |
1995 |
Peter clavelle |
progressive |
11756(+1448) |
1997 |
Peter clavelle |
progressive |
5518(-6238) |
1999 |
Peter clavelle |
progressive |
9941(+4423) |
2001 |
Peter clavelle |
progressive |
6208(-3733) |
2003 |
Peter clavelle |
progressive |
5959(-249) |
2006 |
bob kiss |
progressive |
9706(+3747) |
2009 |
bob kiss |
progressive |
8980(-726) |
2012 |
miro weinberger |
democrat |
10053(+1073) |
2015 |
Miro weinberger |
Democrat |
7677(-2376) |
candidate |
party |
Terms |
Turnout |
Average Turnout Burlington Mayors 1969-2015
Francis J Cain |
Democrat |
1 |
8034 |
Gordon Paquette |
|
5 |
7329 |
Bernard Sanders |
|
4 |
11377 |
Peter Clavelle |
|
7 |
8327 |
Peter C Brownwell |
|
1 |
10308 |
bob kiss |
|
2 |
9343 |
miro weinberger |
|
2 |
8865 |
In the terms where Bernie Sanders ran for office and those 4 immediately following there was an average voter turnout of:
10811
In the 5 terms of Gordon Paquette there was an average turnout of:
7329
Its interesting to note that Bernard Sanders has only one race where both Republican and a Democrat ran for election and that is the highest turnout race in data. His next 2 highest turnout races lack Republicans. His lowest turnout race, the first, lacked a Republican as well though it had a strong independent. In most cases when a candidate from either major party mounts a serious campaign they have extremely consistent numbers regardless of what Bernie Sanders is doing. In 4 of 6 of Paquette’s races he had ~5050 votes listed as Democrats and in extremely competitive races he tended to drop only 400 of those votes. Democrats have the highest consistent base of the 2 major parties and thus races where they field no candidate tend to drop by almost exactly their number of consistent voters.
Peter Clavelle had similar turnout issues to Sanders, although his progressive base actually dropped over time.
Its notable that in his largest turnout race the Democrats had almost the same number of voters, ~4050, as the race before where Bove took ~1000 Democratic votes from Paquette after losing the Democratic caucus to him. The Republicans came in with a number quite consistent with their average base, yet Bernie Sanders grew his votes by almost 3000 votes. In the race where he faced the strongest independent challenger his numbers dropped by about as many votes as she had. Based on an analysis of the numbers it seems safe to conclude that the Sanders coalition included ~1000 Democrats ~500 Republicans and ~1200 Independents for a total of 2700 of his votes. However the Democrats did not come to his side until the next election. So he must have added 2300 voters to the turnout that election. He then added ~3000 votes, with likely ~1000 from Bove’s Democratic split. Thus we can conclude he added ~2000 voters in his second election and he also inspired the Republicans to get back into the race that year.
His voter wave lasted a brief time after him, perhaps 4 elections under Clavelle. It took until the 2001 election for the Sanders/Progressive coalition to slowly drain away. However it was the lack of Republican or Democratic candidates that resulted in the drop with their voters opting out of the race in the early Clavelle years.
The Republicans mounted one successful campaign to dethrone Clavelle, one wonders whether there was a coalition against him given the number. However he was swiftly reelected the next year as the Democrats fielded a candidate and he had a slight surge in support.
The Sanders/Progressive coalition seemed to draw the majority of its support from wards 1, 2, 3, and 6. Republicans tended to draw the most support in 4, 5, and 6, and the Democrats in 1, 4, and 6.
Sanders consistently drew numbers equaling the total pre-Sanders turnout in wards 1, 2, and 3.
Clavelle appears to have lost 25% of the 1, 2, and 3 voters and in the close elections with Brownwell he also drops in ward 4 quite a bit. He started losing support immediately after his first term and only made up group during the Brownwell elections. Voter turnout in these districts continues to erode until Bob Kiss is elected where it sees a minor surge before falling back down to Paquette levels under Weinberger.
Based on all of this we can conclude that Sanders added a section of new voters sufficient to increase voter turnout about 61.5% in high turnout elections and maintained that coalition for several elections afterwards before it slipped away from Clavelle. He increased total turnout by 2.6x across 2 elections, granted he started counting from an uncontested year. If you average the years that Paquette won elections he still increased turnout by 1.82x. He did drop down afterwards but I think its fair to say his claim is correct. He never said he kept it at 2x after all. I’m sure most people’s opinions will divide neatly along primary lines, though.
Still a whopping turnout multiplier of 1.475x over his 4 elections + Clavelle’s first 4 is quite a miracle. Such a turnout boost nationally would give the Democrats a massive electoral landslide.