Democratic Rep. Jim McDermott, who’s been a fixture in Seattle politics since time immemorial, has announced his retirement on Monday. McDermott has represented Washington’s 7th district, which is largely coterminous with Seattle, since 1988, though he also gets a footnote for being the last Democrat to lose a gubernatorial general election in Washington, all the way back in 1980 while a state Senator (he defeated conservaDem incumbent Dixy Lee Ray in the primary, but then lost to John Spellman in the general). McDermott is an outspoken liberal and prominent member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, probably best-known for his advocacy for a single-payer health care system in the 1990s, or else for his long-running legal battle with John Boehner over the leak of an illegally recorded phone call.
McDermott’s retirement doesn’t come as a surprise, given his age (79), though he hadn’t previously telegraphed any intent to step down. He was facing a primary challenge from fellow progressive Dem state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw (age 31); McDermott probably would have won a head-to-head fight with Walkinshaw, who’s only been in office since 2014, but Walkinshaw seemed to be gambling on using that challenge to be at the head of the line in case McDermott did retire.
And now the floodgates are unleashed, with the seat that dozens of Seattle politicians have been coveting finally open. Walkinshaw may indeed have a small leg-up, thanks to his moxie (and nailing down a few big endorsements), but now he’s going to have a lot of better-known, better-financed company.
One name that will be on everyone’s lips, but that I doubt will run, is Ed Murray. Until several years ago, while he was a state Senator, his interest in the seat was widely-known, to the extent that he was often thought of as McDermott’s heir apparent. However, he apparently got tired of waiting, and he successfully ran for Seattle mayor in 2013. At this point, going from mayor of a thriving major city, to a House freshman deep in the minority probably no longer makes sense, even if it was something he’d been planning on for many years.
Another name that’s been often mentioned as a potential McDermott successor is Jenny Durkan, who was the US Attorney in Seattle until recently and was short-listed to replace Eric Holder as Attorney General (and would have been the nation’s first LGBT AG). Another well-known possibility is Ron Sims, who was King County Executive for many years and then served as Deputy HUD Secretary in the Obama administration; Sims is 67, so he may be done with politics, but may be unable to resist the pull of an open WA-07.
Nearly all of the Seattle city councilors who were originally elected in the old at-large system are worth a Great Mention, though Bruce Harrell may be the likeliest to run. Harrell (who’s mixed-race: African American and Asian American) floated his name for WA-09 after redistricting before deciding against an uphill challenge against Adam Smith (Harrell lives in SE Seattle and his house is probably in the 9th, but he likely has a better argument in the 7th, since he’s known city-wide), and acquitted himself well in the 2013 mayoral race, finishing third behind Murray and incumbent Mike McGinn. The most interesting wild card on the council, however, would be the openly socialist Kshama Sawant, who, if she runs, would presumably run as a Sanders-style indie rather than a Democrat (not that the label matters in Washington’s Top 2 system). Sawant has a large fan base but is polarizing, meaning she could have a leg-up on getting into one of the two slots in a crowded field, though she’d probably then lose the general to whatever more establishment rival she faces.
Among Seattle’s King County Council members, confusingly, West Seattle’s Joe McDermott (no apparent relation to Jim, and much younger than Jim) may be the best positioned to run. (City and county councilors are elected in odd-numbered years, so they don’t need to give up their seat to run.) Current County Executive Dow Constantine would have some serious field-clearing firepower if he decided to run, but he’s most likely staking out the 2020 WA-Gov race.
There’s also no shortage of other state legislators who’ll be interested: the top of the totem pole would probably be state Sen. Sharon Nelson, who’s currently the Minority Leader, but she may be more interested in trying to win back Dem control of the state Senate (also, she’s from Vashon Island rather than Seattle, though that quirk shouldn’t matter because Vashon is part of the 7th, and her state Senate seat is mostly in West Seattle). Instead, state Sen. David Frockt may be the likeliest bet among Seattle’s Senators (though, unlike Nelson, he’d be up for re-election in 2016 and have to give up his seat).
Jamie Pederson is another young, ambitious possibility, but if Durkan gets in, she’d probably have dibs ahead of him on the support of both Seattle’s Big Law and LGBT communities. Pramila Jayapal is another possibility … she’d be sort of a less-polarizing Sawant … but she only has one year of experience in the legislature. And, finally, there’s state Sen. Marko Liias, whom you might remember from his brief run in WA-01 in 2012; he dropped out after redistricting unexpectedly put him into WA-07 instead. Now he has his shot at an open WA-07, but his problem is that he’s from the small portion of suburban Snohomish County that was put into WA-07 (to compensate for SE Seattle going into WA-09), so few people in Seattle know who he is.
Finally, there’s always the possibility that some heretofore-unknown tech multi-millionaire shows up and tries to swamp the field of local pols with money. (In fact, one guy, businessman Jeff Stilwell, has already thrown his hat into the ring as well, though it's not clear yet whether he has the money to be a factor.) At any rate, all the politicians I’ve named are pretty progressive (albeit with different flavors of progressivism), and given that the seat gave nearly 80 percent of its vote to Barack Obama in 2012, the only way that this seat doesn’t elect a Democrat to succeed McDermott would be if it elects a Socialist instead.
UPDATE: Kshama Sawant says she is “not ruling out” a run, while state Sen. Reuven Carlyle (who was a state Rep. until just weeks ago, when he was appointed to fill a Senate vacancy) says he is giving it “serious reflection.” (Carlyle would face a special election to retain his new Senate seat in 2016, so this would mean giving up his current job.)