Every Thursday I survey the latest presidential polling, and as of now, there’s not much new since the last time I did one of these on December 22. Think about it, pollsters weren’t going to poll the last week of the year, so they’d have to wait until this Monday to kick their machines back into action. Assume a 3-day polling cycle, at least, and they wouldn’t have raw data to crunch until today, for release tomorrow. But who wants to release numbers on a Friday when no one is around? So I’d bet most people are in the field NOW, looking to release numbers early next week.
But, that doesn’t prevent us from taking a look at where things stood the last several weeks, as a baseline moving forward into 2016.
REPUBLICANS
Compared to December 22, Trump is up in the national picture 0.2 points, Cruz is down 0.3, and Rubio is up 1.2. Put another way, that’s all float and nothing much has happened. Here are the polls since the last update:
|
TRUMP |
CRUZ |
RUBIO |
CARSON |
NBC/SurveyMonkey |
12/28-1/3 |
35 |
18 |
13 |
9 |
11/15-17 |
28 |
18 |
11 |
18 |
Ipsos/Reuters |
12/26-30 |
39 |
14 |
12 |
12 |
12/19-23 |
39 |
13 |
9 |
10 |
YouGov/Economist |
12/18-21 |
35 |
19 |
14 |
7 |
12/4-9 |
34 |
15 |
17 |
9 |
CNN |
12/17-21 |
39 |
18 |
10 |
10 |
11/27-12/1 |
36 |
16 |
12 |
14 |
Trump is still winning this thing, and gotta say, I see his path to the nomination, I don’t see anyone else’s path (absent a coup at the convention). This primary is unpredictable as shit, and I really can’t believe this, but Trump is probably going to end up the Republican nominee! (More here.)
Cruz is about the only danger to Trump, particularly if he can swallow Carson’s residual 10 percent or so. And Cruz is just as hated as Trump among establishment Republicans, so … it would be like if we faced a choice between Joe Lieberman and Mario Andrew Cuomo. Imagine? That’s what the GOP establishment is suffering these days. And it’s fucking hilarious.
Not much new polling in Iowa, where Cruz has a narrow lead in the polls. Ann Selzer is due with a poll next week, which should give us the best insight into the current state of the race.
We have a couple of new polls from New Hampshire, including an internal from Chris Christie’s Super PAC, America Leads.
|
TRUMP |
RUBIO |
CRUZ |
CHRISTIE |
KASICH |
BUSH |
PPP |
1/4-7 |
29 |
15 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11/30-12/2 |
27 |
11 |
13 |
10 |
8 |
5 |
ARG |
12/20-22 |
21 |
15 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
7 |
n/a |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
America Leads |
12/19-22 |
29 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
7 |
6 |
n/a |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
|
So if you’re America Leads, why would you release that poll? OUR GUY IS TIED FOR THIRD!
New Hampshire has certainly been more establishmentarian than Iowa, so if the establishment could rally around one guy, Trump could face defeat. But with numbers like that, why would anyone drop out now? They all have a chance at getting a coveted second place and the right to represent the Establishment through the rest of the primaries.
DEMOCRATS
Compared to last time we checked in, Hillary Clinton is down 2.6 points, while Bernie Sanders is up 4.5 points. The polls that drove that change:
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
Ipsos/Reuters |
1/2-6 |
58 |
30 |
12/26-30 |
57 |
32 |
NBC/SurveyMonkey |
12/28-1/3 |
53 |
36 |
11/15-17 |
49 |
33 |
Rasmussen |
12/20-21 |
46 |
30 |
n/a |
- |
- |
YouGov/Economist |
12/18-21 |
53 |
39 |
12/4-9 |
56 |
35 |
CNN |
12/17-21 |
50 |
34 |
11/27-12/1 |
58 |
30 |
Hmmm, I see something between float within the margin of error and a slight bump for Sanders. If you are a Bernie optimist, you think that maybe he’s starting to push through his 30 percent demographic ceiling. Maybe, maybe not. We’ll have a bunch of new polling in the coming days to paint a more complete picture. I just wish more of that primary polling included demographic breakdowns. Very few of it does.
In Iowa, nothing new except for a crap Gravis poll, which gave Clinton a much bigger lead than anything else we’ve seen. I wouldn’t give it much credence. In the composite, she continues to lead relatively comfortably, 51.8 to 36.8. I look forward to the upcoming Selzer poll. Last one, in early December, pegged Iowa as a single-digit race, with Clinton leading 48-39, closer than the polling composite. Selzer’s Iowa polling is the gold standard of polling anywhere.
Meanwhile, two new polls in New Hampshire both show the first Clinton leads since late November.
|
CLINTON |
SANDERS |
PPP |
1/4-1/6 |
47 |
44 |
11/30-12/2 |
44 |
42 |
ARG |
12/13-17 |
46 |
43 |
n/a |
- |
- |
That makes the composite a less-than-1-point race:
I’ve got no great insight here other than HOLY SHIT! That night is going to be huge fun.
It’s so crazy tight that Martin O’Malley’s supporters may actually be able to sway the election (he’s not staying in past Iowa, is he?). Don’t expect Iowa results to do much here, since New Hampshire prides itself in being its own state. It just looks to remain close all the way down to the wire.