I’ve always said that when it comes to Iowa, my prediction system is easy: just take what Ann Selzer says and run with it.
Selzer/DMR |
Clinton |
Sanders |
1/26-29 |
45 |
42 |
1/7-10 |
42 |
40 |
That’s a net +1 for Hillary Clinton since the previous poll, which is nothing in the statistical sense. The race has been static, with undecideds moving to each candidate on a 50-50 basis.
Unfortunately, we won’t really know if Selzer was right, because no popular vote will be announced—yet another reason why this contest is a piece of shit. And given that the bulk of Bernie Sanders’ support is concentrated in three of the state’s 99 counties (the ones with colleges), there is a very real possibility that Sanders wins the popular vote, but “loses” Iowa because of the reported delegate count. How is that democratic?
In any case, I predict Clinton +3, like Selzer and the aggregate (see below), but we’ll never know the outcome, so it’s all moot. However, there’s no way Clinton loses the popular vote and delegate count, so in essence, I’m predicting a Clinton delegate victory. By how much? Let’s say she wins the delegate count by 5 percent (52.5-47.5).
So yeah, the polling aggregate also predicts a Clinton +3 popular vote victory.
According to the aggregate, the race narrowed slowly until January, when it tightened significantly. But it has stayed relatively static for the last several weeks, and we now head into caucus night with that Clinton 3-point lead. Given that Martin O’Malley will fail viability everywhere (15 percent), there may be places where his supporters actually swing results.
More from Selzer:
Selzer said the data suggest Clinton's support is more solid than Sanders'.
The poll shows 83 percent of Clinton’s caucus supporters have made up their minds going into Monday’s vote, up from 69 percent earlier this month.
“That’s huge,” Selzer said. “That’s a number any candidate would like to see.”
Sixty-nine percent of Sanders’ supporters are firmly behind him coming into the caucuses, about the same as earlier this month
On the other hand, Sanders is winning the question “which candidate do you think is the one who cares most about people like you?” by a 51-37 margin.
Clinton enjoys heavy support from older caucusgoers, especially women over 45. Sanders has support from 63 percent of those under 35 and holds the edge with men.
Now I LOVE to see this, which flies in the face of much of the rec-list negativity we’ve seen around here lately: Clinton’s favorabilities among Iowa Democrats are 81-17, while Bernie Sanders’ are 82-12. People like both our candidates, and that’s good for our party. Neither is a demon, nor 100 percent a saint. They are humans with all the attendant positives and negatives that entails. We would all be better off remembering that.
This stat, however, surprises me: asked level of enthusiasm for each candidate, 73 percent say they are “very” or “fairly” enthusiastic about Clinton, but just 69 percent say the same about Sanders. I would’ve guessed it’d be the opposite.
Finally, there is a hope among the Sanders camp that he inspires a new generation of first-time caucus goers, much like Obama did in 2008. Selzer doesn’t see that in her data.
While we won’t be able to confirm her popular vote toplines, THIS I hope we can confirm one way or another. But it seems intuitive that if Sanders wins, it’s because we saw Obama-level of first-time caucus goers. If Clinton wins, Selzer was right.
Here’s the last minute polling from Iowa:
|
Clinton |
Sanders |
Emerson College |
1/29-31 |
51 |
43
|
1/18-20 |
52 |
43 |
QUINNIPIAC |
1/25-31 |
46 |
49 |
1/18-24 |
45 |
49 |
Selzer/DMR |
1/26-29 |
45 |
42 |
1/7-10 |
42 |
40 |
PPP |
1/26-27 |
48 |
40 |
1/8-10 |
46 |
40 |
Remarkable consistency, suggesting that things haven’t moved since the beginning of the year. Plenty of numbers there for partisans of both campaigns to hang to.
Oh, there’s a Republican side, so this is what Selzer has to say about that:
SELZER/DMR |
Trump |
Cruz |
Rubio |
Carson |
Bush |
1/26-29 |
28 |
23 |
15 |
10 |
2 |
1/7-10 |
22 |
25 |
12 |
11 |
4 |
Poor Ted Cruz, he had his lead, then poof! All gone. The big question is whether Cruz’s very real ground game can overcome Trump’s no-ground-game-celebrity-driven campaign. We are in unprecedented territory here. (Trump leads the aggregate over Cruz 30.7-23.8).
The Iowa caucus begins at 8 PM ET on Monday, and we’ll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos. Who do you think will win? Make your predictions!