After Iowa, I see basically bad news for our party, bad news for each campaign. I'm hoping this doesn't get worse, but I'm not getting my hopes up.
First, although Clinton is the winner here, this was way too close for this campaign to claim any bragging rights. Now I know Clinton people will offer up the usual caveats: rural white people, semi-open caucus system, etc. And that's all true. But the fact is the campaign chose to compete here and the win was unimpressive. There is no way I'd be thinking ‘stick to the plan’ after a what is basically a tie. Even if the nomination case is on firmer footing, the general election caae for this campaign is weak. They have to do better than this crap. Clearly. Democrats should be thanking Bernie Sanders right now because clearly the frontrunner has some glaring weaknesses that need correcting.
Second, for the Sanders Campaign to claim something out of this is perfectly fair. They remind me of ‘flurry’ boxers from my GG days. Huge myriad of combinations, none of them strong enough to leave a mark. The Sanders Campaign promised to expand the electorate and win the disaffected and so on. But that failed to materialize in probably the most favorable territory he's going to see for the next month and a half. Sanders should be especially disappointed by his underperformance in Des Moines, which is the most Democratic Party of America looking place in Iowa. If I were the Sanders Campaign, I'd be asking about why they campaign can't seem to get out of a very rural, very white box. There's no path to victory there in this party. A strong performance, but not one likely to change any minds elsewhere in the country. I know Sanders folks believe a wave of socialism is sweeping the country, but if Iowa is any indication, its a very narrow demographic, not big enough for victory.
But here is the big problem I see about these results: Democratic turnout was down, substantially. Some 170k or so, way down from 2008's 240k. You could write that off if you want by saying ‘Barack Obama’ but I say in response, ‘yeah…Barack Obama!’ As in, the current candidates aren't delivering the robust turnout Democrats need for victory in the fall. There's plenty of time to get better at this, but man. I am not impressed with either campaign’s potential for the fall if this was the best they could do.
But on the GOP side turnout was record setting and robust. Up some 50% over 2012. Much of the credit is going to the organization of Ted Cruz and the presence of Trump. You have to give Rubio credit as well for coming out on top of the establishment lane. The best campaign I see on that side is Cruz with a nearly flawless execution of their game plan. I've been keeping up with that campaign and it is playing out exactly as the Cruz team predicted it would. GOP turnout being up by such a large percentage is clearly a boon to Cruz’s argument with the GOP establishment too. Make no mistake, don't pay any attention to what you hear from the GOP about Cruz. If he wins, trust, they'll be behind him 100%. An ominous warning.