A friend of mine who knows Massachusetts politics inside out sent me this. Due to the sensitivity of his day job he can’t put his name on it or blog it directly, but I thought it had enough value that it was worth sharing with you all. Handing it over now ...
Sanders could definitely win [in Massachusetts], but I think it will be much, much tougher than people think, and I might even give Clinton an edge. (If anything I think Colorado might be more fertile for him given how badly Hillary lost there in 2008). Here's my reasoning.
- Clinton won here in 2008, and won big—56 percent to 40 percent. That was despite Obama having tremendous institutional support from the big Massachusetts players: Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, Deval Patrick, and the Boston Globe. Even if Sanders gets a Warren endorsement, he won't have that. Hillary doesn't just have all the institutional support, but they're all-in on her campaign—Joe Kennedy and Marty Walsh and Ed Markey are spending every weekend in New Hampshire on her behalf.
- Part of the reason she won so big here in '08 is that Bill Clinton used to walk on water here. At the time he was easily the most popular politician in the state. The high-water mark for Democrats in the state is still the 33-point beatdown he put on Bob Dole in 1996. Now some of that has probably changed—Bill left office 15 years ago and last ran 20 years ago. How much it's changed will be an interesting question. But I would expect Clinton to continue to do well with seniors and middle-aged voters as a result. (See below for why Sanders may have missed an opportunity with younger voters).
- Massachusetts is heavily white and heavily liberal, but it's not as white as people think: 9 percent black, 6 percent Asian-American, and a little under 10 percent Latino. Eight years ago, Obama's strength with black voters somewhat neutralized Clinton's strength with Asians and Latinos. That won't happen again, although I am curious to see whether Sanders makes real inroads with Latinos over the next month. Assuming Clinton maintains her strength with nonwhite voters, they might make the difference (watch the Asian-Americans; there are actually enough in Massachusetts that they could make the difference in a close race).
- I would guess that the Clinton campaign is going to have Michael Whouley camp out here for the next month (he lives here). That should help, at least a little.
- This is an affluent state and Clinton is doing well with wealthier whites. It looks like Bernie does well among blue-collar whites, and there are plenty in MA ... but then, Clinton has big union support here, and she won union households in Iowa by 9 points.
- Bernie had no presence here until January (his actual campaign, that is; he had plenty of supporters here, and still does). This is a little problematic because the deadline for registering to vote was yesterday, February 1. We live in a college town, where Bernie is virtually guaranteed to win, and I haven't seen any canvassers registering new voters in months. If he's counting on first-time voters to help him through, and he likely is, he may have missed a real opportunity. This isn't Iowa, where you can register at the caucus. [Update: I had thought the registration deadline was February 1, but it is actually February 10, so the Sanders campaign has another week and change to register college kids.]
Now, on the other side.
- New Hampshire was Clinton country in 2008, though not to the same degree, and Bernie looks like he's cruising to a big victory now. It's one small state, and there are serious differences between New Hampshire and Massachusetts, but there are a lot of similarities too. Anyway, it goes to show that "2008 coalition plus black voters" maybe isn't a gimme for Clinton.
- Bernie certainly thinks he can win. He has at least three offices in the state now. Of course, part of that is because he's pretty fucked if he doesn't win here, but they're definitely making a play for it.
- Demographically this is still a pretty white and pretty liberal state. Looking at it from 30,000 feet, it's great territory for Bernie.
- Bernie has been on the air in the local media market (targeting New Hampshire) for some time. So has Hillary, of course, but Bernie's the one who needed to make his introduction to voters by running ads. He's done that already (and see below—as a Vermonter he has a built-in advantage).
- Bernie's from a neighboring state. He'll crush in Western Massachusetts (where Obama also did very well). He'll also do well on the South Shore, Cape Cod and the islands.
- When Bernie wins big in New Hampshire, the local media coverage should really help him on the ground.
- There are about 1.5 times as many "Unenrolled" (read: independents) as registered Democrats in Massachusetts. Many of those lean Republican—probably more than half, actually, so it's not THAT much of a difference-maker. Still, Bernie's strength with independents could really help, especially if the GOP race is more or less settled by Super Tuesday.
- Resources. Bernie has money coming out of his ears at this point, though he's spending faster than Clinton and she has more cash on hand. He will likely deploy those resources in an all-out assault on Massachusetts, Minnesota, Colorado, and a handful of southern states where he needs to keep the delegate margins close. Clinton is going to spend much less than Bernie does here. She doesn't need the state in the primary and there's no way she loses it in the general.