One more on the series of Delegate Mathematics diaries. South Carolina is a very well suited to provide a definitive adavantage for the candidate who can get extra delegate advantage. Most of the congressional districts have an odd number of available delegates. Thus delegate splits will definitely give one or the other candidate that extra boost.
Basic Data: South Carolina has 53 delegates available. There are 7 Congressional Districts. So including state-wide allocations, there are 8 different delegate allocation units. The delegates are unevenly spread. Number of delegates available in each are as follows: 3 from CD3; 4 from CD4; 5 from CD1 , CD2, CD5, CD7; 8 from CD6; and 18 allocated state-wide. Most districts have a substantially high non-white Democrats. South Carolina has been touted as one of the early firewalls for Clinton defence against expected good performance by Sanders Iowa and New Hampshire.
I have grouped the Congressional districts which have same available delegates together since the same thresholds and triggers apply to them.
Delegates Acquired
Out of Available-->
|
|
3 Del
cd 3
|
4 del
cd 4
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5 del
cd1 cd2 cd5 cd7
|
8 del
cd6
|
Delegate Allocation Threshholds/Triggers
1 del |
|
16.7 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
2 del |
|
50 |
37.5 |
30 |
18.8 |
3 del |
|
83.3 |
62.5 |
50 |
31.3 |
4 del |
|
|
85 |
70 |
43.8 |
5 del |
|
|
|
85 |
56.3 |
6 del |
|
|
|
|
68.8 |
7 Del |
|
|
|
|
81.3 |
For 3 Delegates at CD3: The first delegate is very cheap to acquire with just 16.7% votes. second delegate available to whoever manages to get more than 50% votes. That final delegate requires a whopping 83.3% votes. Unless the poll numbers are literally hovering around 50% marker, this place is unlikely to see much action. delegates splits 2-1 giving 1 delegate adavantage for crossing 50% threshold.
For 4 Delegates at CD4: The first delegate here is available at 15%. Second delegate at 37.5%. Third delegate trigger is high at 62.5%. The whole range from 37.5 to 62.5 will still have delegates split 2-2. Given the touted Clinton advantage here, the main struggle between the two campaigns will be for that 62.5% region. Goal for Sanders will be to bring Clinton share just under 62.5% even if it is just at 62.4% delegates will be split even (2-2). Goal for Clinton will be to try and exceed that same target and grab a split of (3-1) advantage. Current polling has the numbers floating around at the triggers.
For 5 Delegates at CD1 CD2 CD5 and CD7: First delegate acquired at 15%, second delegate at 30.%. Third delegate trigger is precariously balanced at 50%. Fourth delegate costs a whopping 70%. This 70% votes are needed to get a 4-1 split seems a bit too much of a demand on any campaign. These districts becomes very crucial as they break just with small % hovering at 50%, a whole delegate is available. Both campaigns probably have that 30% support needed for 2 delegates. Goal for both Campaign is to cross the 50%.
For 8 Delegates at CD6: First delegate acquired at 15%, second at 18.8% and third at 31.3%. Any vote share between 43.8% and 56.3% will result in a 4-4 delegate split. Crossing a threshold trigger 56.3% results in two delegate advantage 5-3. The next trigger at 68.8% for 6-2 split. Unless there is some major event 68.8% is quite a huge barrier. 7-1 split is just extremely improbable it needs 81.3%. For Sanders the goal will be to achieve 43.8% target to make the districts break even (4-4). For Clinton the target would be to score higher than 56.3%.
Delegate Allocations Based On State-Wide Results: Statewide results work towards two different category of delegates; 11 At-Large delegates and 7 pledged PLEO delegates. While it is the same vote share, due to both allocations being odd numbers they tend to reward statewide winner with overall at least two delegate advantages as 50% trigger rewards advantage in both category.
Delegates |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
State-Wide Delegate Allocation Triggers
Vote % 7 PLEO |
15 |
21.4 |
35.7 |
50 |
64.3 |
78.6 |
85 |
__ |
Vote % 11 At-Large |
15 |
15 |
22.73 |
31.83 |
40.91 |
50 |
59.1 |
68.2 |
For 11 At-Large Delegates (State-wide): Because of small number of available delegates, the incremental steps are fairly chunky. Roughly 9% votes translates to 1 delegate. Being viable at 15% will automatically give 2 delegates. The extra delegates achieving triggers are listed above.
For 7 Pledged PLEOs: Because of small number of available delegates, this is comparable to how a 7 delegate CD numbers stack up. 50% trigger is very important for the extra delegate advantage.
Taking both into account, The clumped triggers at 15% give overall 3 delegates. Similarly dual trigger at 50%.
So the emphasis on overall turnout will also be important. Most likely if a campaign has internal polling showing they are at a close boundary for delegate number change, then a little push would make a difference.
Next bit is my personal opinion: I suspect that every odd break will go in Clinton favour here. Clinton support is higher than normal and break points for odd 5 delegates will fall to just with 50% in most cases. Clinton advantage. CD1 (3-2): CD2 (3-2): CD3 (2-1) : CD4 (3-1): CD5 (3-2): CD6 (5-3): CD7 (3-2): PLEOs (5-2): Statewide (7-4). Overall Clinton 33 — Sanders 20. giving a 13 delegate advantage.
On a side note, South Carolina is one of the states labelled as “Clinton Firewall”.
Previously covered states are all listed with the individual state links in this single document. I will be updating it as and when new states get done: All-Links-Collection-Delegate-Mathematics-Series-2016-Democratic-Primary
Enjoy and hopefully you will have spotted where you might tip the balance personally and like to campaign or make that extra push for your preferred candidate.