Hop in our time machine and join Daily Kos Elections as we revisit key elections from yesteryear and imagine what we might have written about those races at the time—without any benefit of hindsight.
On Tuesday, Arkansas Democrats went to the polls to vote for their party’s gubernatorial nominee, and while former Gov. Bill Clinton finished ahead of the pack as expected, his performance was far from great. Clinton, who’s making a comeback two years after getting ousted by voters, dramatically outspent his two main foes, and observers thought he had about an even chance of taking a majority and winning the nomination without a runoff. However, he took just 42 percent of the vote.
Until recently, it looked certain that ex-Rep. Jim Guy Tucker would come in second. However, former Lt. Gov. Joe Purcell surged in the last few weeks and edged out Tucker 29-23 to join Clinton in the runoff. Clinton and Tucker had been hitting each other all spring, allowing Purcell to emerge unscathed. Republican Gov. Frank White, who unseated Clinton in 1980, also targeted both Clinton and Tucker in his early ad campaign, but he, too, left Purcell alone.
Clinton is probably the favorite in the runoff, but Purcell definitely can make things interesting. He cuts a very different profile than the youthful Clinton: While Purcell’s low-key style can come off as dull compared to Clinton's charismatic persona, many voters find the stolid Purcell a welcome change of pace. And as the New York Times notes, Purcell has made few enemies in state politics. While Clinton and Tucker could rip each other apart, attacks on the well-liked Purcell could look petty and backfire.
At this point, it’s quite possible that Democrats should root for the bland but likable Purcell over Clinton. It wasn’t so long ago that Arkansas transformed Clinton from the youngest governor in the country into the youngest ex-governor. Clinton is asking voters for a second chance and claims he’s learned from his first tour in office, and he’s even called his ill-fated decision to increase car license plate fees a “mistake.“ However, Tuesday’s primary results indicate that not even Razorback State Democrats are quite ready to let bygones be bygones. And while White has had his stumbles in office, he’ll have an easier time if he gets to turn this race into a second straight referendum on Clinton.
Of course, there’s the danger that Purcell won’t be willing to hit White on problems like the state’s increasing electric rates. For all his issues, Clinton has demonstrated that he’s not afraid to throw a few blows his opponents’ way. There’s no doubt that Purcell has momentum right now, and the Democratic runoff will be a good test to see if Clinton can put his woes behind him. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as a Tossup.
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