Let's just assume, as many believe, that Donald Trump will clean up during the GOP's Super Tuesday contests, leaving him as the Republican candidate mostly likely to lead the delegate count heading into the GOP convention. That leaves two possible scenarios.
The first is that he actually secures the nomination. The second is that even though he leads the delegate count, party leaders manage to steal the nomination from under him through a brokered convention.
Let's just say this—the GOP is screwed no matter which of those two scenarios plays out.
If Trump wins the nomination, we will witness a GOP at war with itself as it tries to assemble a party platform at the convention. That should be fun since Trump breaks with the GOP party line on everything from free trade and entitlement programs to eminent domain and energy policy.
Panicked Republicans question whether Mr. Trump will be able to unite a Republican-controlled Congress that would normally be expected to promote and promulgate his agenda, an internal crisis nearly unheard-of in a generation of American politics. On nearly every significant issue, Mr. Trump stands in opposition to Republican orthodoxy and his party’s policy prescriptions ...”
On top of that brawl, more Republicans will surely join Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse in pledging not to vote Trump. And finally, a wave of anti-Trump media campaigns will sweep the nation, financed not by Democrats but by Republicans desperate to save their seats. None other than Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has begun prepping his caucus for an all-out assault on Trump’s candidacy in order win their re-election bids and, therefore, keep the GOP's Senate majority.
The second scenario involves a convention floor fight like the GOP hasn't seen since the '70s—only far, far more vitriolic.
That 1976 row involved Ronald Reagan vs. Gerald R. Ford, who ultimately prevailed. But let's just keep in mind that Trump is no Reagan. If he loses, instead of giving a stirring concession speech, Trump will throw a billionaire-sized hissy fit and sue. Meanwhile, Trump’s true believers will go ballistic, unleashing a fury reminiscent of the passions piqued by George Wallace's fiery presidential bids of the '60s and '70s. The anger and radicalism that Trump has relentlessly stoked among his followers will then turn away from his favorite scapegoats—immigrants, Muslims, Mexicans, etc.—and fully toward the Republican Party.
There's not a Republican alive who wants to preside over that bloodbath, even if they think it's the right thing to do. But as chairman of the convention, Speaker Paul Ryan gets the job by default. Enjoy!
Either way, it’s a party eating its own. Whether it's GOP officials targeting Trump in order to salvage their seats, or it's Trump and his base taking aim at the party that’s denied him his nomination, the GOP will head into 2016 rupturing from within.
No matter what, let's make sure to turn the Senate blue—please donate $3 today. The future of the Supreme Court depends on it.