Note: This story was written before Bernie’s big wins in Idaho, Utah, Washington, Hawaii, and Alaska. Bernie lost Arizona — but as additional provisional ballots are counted from election day, he may gain some delegates there. The image above has been updated to reflect the latest totals.
Robert W. McChesney, Prof. of Media and Communications, University of Illinois, makes a strong case for a Bernie Sanders nomination victory, in spite of mainstream media’s continual spin to the contrary.
In an interview with Sharmini Peries, McChesney notes that media spin in this race has been blatant — with long-shot establishment candidates on the Republican side treated as serious contenders, while Sen. Sanders odd are discounted despite a favorable calendar through the remaining three months.
Whether you support Hillary or Bernie (or both!), it will be a fascinating second half of the Democratic primary, as the remaining 50% of pledged delegates are distributed— and voters everywhere have their say across 28 states & territories.
UPDATE (3:50 PM ET, 3/21):
Many commentators point out that this story could benefit from additional mathematical analysis, beyond the simple facts provided above:
- 50% of pledged delegates remain
- A favorable calendar going forward
- Momentum in the final months
With 80 days until California, New Jersey, New Mexico, Montana, and the Dakotas vote, only the most superficial of analyses would suggest Sen. Sanders does not have a viable path to the nomination.
It would be foolish to write off a candidate who has gone from 4% in national polls, to 45%, who out-raised his opponent by $13 million last month, and who will have strong momentum & several weeks to campaign going into the New York primary on April 19th. He also has ample time to campaign in California, where 475 delegates will be distributed.
It is naive to accept the media consensus at face value, when it has been proven wrong time & time again this election cycle — these same pundits thought a Trump nomination was impossible, and that Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker were top-tier candidates.
Is it possible for Bernie Sanders to win 58% of the remaining pledged delegates? Of course. Is it a daunting task? Of course. Going from 3% to 45% in the national polls is also a daunting task, one that Sen. Sanders has already completed.
A mathematical analysis is only as strong as the assumptions it is built upon. As a Statistics B.A., I can tell you that the one weak assumption underlying the ‘inevitability’ crowd is that the dynamics of this race will remain static. There are miles to go before we sleep.
Sen. Sanders is at ~88% of his delegate target thus far, per FiveThirtyEight’s analysis. To win the nomination, as outlined in this graphic, Bernie only needs to slightly exceed his demographic targets from FiveThirtyEight, and achieve a large win in California (~60-65% of the vote).
This is one of many realistic scenarios for a Sanders victory — demographic analysis suggests Sanders would only need to gain 2-3% in national polls to achieve this target, with a final burst of GOTV in the California race on June 7th. Certainly, weeks of campaigning could move the needle in California and elsewhere.
If you would like to play with the math yourself, I would recommend demrace.com. Another, more detailed analysis of Sanders’ opportunity in the remaining 28 contests can be found here: "A Look at the Patterns of the Democratic Primary".