Update: Bernie won 74 delegates last night, a net gain of 17 delegates. Also, 2 delegates from earlier contests have shifted from Bernie to Hillary, so we seem to have gained 2 more.
Hillary’s lead has shrunk as a percentage of delegates outstanding. After the March 15 contests, the lead was reported as 322 delegates, with 2033 available. The lead represented 15.84% of available delegates. Today, it is 298, with 1889 delegates available. That is 15.77% of available delegates.
After the March 15th primaries, I calculated targets Bernie would need to hit to win pledged delegates and the popular vote. If you’re watching the results tonight, the numbers I am looking for are below.
Bernie picked up one delegate more than I’d expected on March 15, so the gap is 322 (1170-848), not 324 as I’d initially expected. We also have the Democrats Abroad numbers now, and Bernie outperformed my target by 2. I’ll update the table below with results tonight, but here is where we are before the votes come in:
STATE |
DEL |
TYPE |
538 TARGET |
SUBIR TARGET |
ACTUAL
DEL
|
ACTUAL VOTES |
VOTES NEEDED |
TURNOUT ‘O8 |
AZ |
75 |
Closed Primary |
41 |
46 |
29 |
163,366 |
279,456 |
455,635 |
ID |
23 |
Open Caucus |
14 |
16 |
18 |
18,638 |
14,764 |
21,224 |
UT |
33 |
Open Caucus |
19 |
21 |
27 |
52,183 |
83,620 |
131,403 |
Abroad |
13 |
Open Caucus |
6.5 |
7 |
9 |
23,779 |
12,441 |
23,105 |
Total |
144 |
|
80.5 |
90 |
83 |
257,966 |
390,281 |
631,367 |
Overall, my target for tonight is 80-83 delegates. 83 would be great, 80 would keep us on track to pledged delegate/popular vote majorities if Bernie wins 58% of remaining delegates/votes.
Two Kossacks have helped evaluate these numbers and provided estimated targets using their own detailed models:
-
Demosten shared a breakdown of his district by district predictions with me (assuming a very good outcome for Bernie) that was very valuable and is reproduced below.
-
Torilahure used his delegate math model to come up with targets based on popular vote thresholds in each state/district (again starting from the PoV that Bernie has a good night).
I’d like to thank them both, and present their target estimates for delegates Bernie picks up:
|
Demosten |
Torilahure |
AZ |
42
|
48 (62.5%) |
ID |
16 |
16 (68.8%) |
ut |
22 |
21 (62.5%) |
TOTAL |
80 |
85 |
District level breakdown for targets as calculated by Demosten for tonight are:
AZ |
CD1 |
CD2 |
CD3 |
CD4 |
CD5 |
CD6 |
CD7 |
CD8 |
CD9 |
PLEO |
AT-lG |
TOTAL |
Bern |
3 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
5 |
9 |
42 |
hILL |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
33 |
ID |
CD1 |
CD2 |
PLEO |
AT-LG |
TOTAL |
BERN |
6 |
5 |
2 |
3 |
16 |
HILL |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
7 |
UT |
CD1 |
CD2 |
CD3 |
CD4 |
PLEO |
AT-LG |
TOTAL |
BERN |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
22 |
HILL |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
11 |
Finally, here is a detailed breakdown by state left to vote. We’re using the 538 demographic model assuming tied national polls as a starting point and my targets are adjusted to make up the deficit:
STATE |
DEL |
TYPE |
538 TARGET |
SUBIR TARGET |
Actual
Del
|
Actual Votes |
VOTES NEEDED |
TURNOUT ‘O8 |
AZ |
75 |
Closed Primary |
41 |
46 |
29 |
163,366 |
279,456 |
455,635 |
ID |
23 |
Open Caucus |
14 |
16 |
18 |
18,638 |
14,764 |
21,224 |
UT |
33 |
Open Caucus |
19 |
21 |
27 |
52,183 |
83,620 |
131,403 |
AK |
16 |
Closed Caucus |
9 |
10 |
|
|
5,550 |
8,880 |
HI |
25 |
Closed Caucus |
13 |
15 |
|
|
22,537 |
37,562 |
WA |
101 |
Modified Caucus |
59 |
66 |
|
|
399,880 |
611,937 |
WI |
86 |
Open Primary |
48 |
54 |
|
|
699,333 |
1,113,753 |
WY |
14 |
Closed Caucus |
9 |
10 |
|
|
6,252 |
8,753 |
NY |
247 |
Closed Primary |
125 |
140 |
|
|
1,071,903 |
1,891,143 |
CT |
55 |
Closed Primary |
28 |
31 |
|
|
199,831 |
354,539 |
DE |
21 |
Closed Primary |
10 |
11 |
|
|
50,482 |
96,374 |
MD |
95 |
Closed Primary |
42 |
47 |
|
|
434,465 |
878,174 |
PA |
189 |
Closed Primary |
96 |
107 |
|
|
1,322,769 |
2,336,480 |
RI |
24 |
Modified Primary |
13 |
15 |
|
|
116,661 |
186,657 |
IN |
83 |
Open Primary |
44 |
49 |
|
|
754,667 |
1,278,314 |
GU |
7 |
Closed Caucus |
3.5 |
4 |
|
|
2,583 |
4,521 |
WV |
29 |
Modified Primary |
17 |
19 |
|
|
235,803 |
359,910 |
Abroad |
13 |
Open Caucus |
6.5 |
7 |
9 |
23,779 |
12,441 |
23,105 |
KY |
55 |
Closed Primary |
28 |
31 |
|
|
395,542 |
701,768 |
OR |
61 |
Closed Primary |
37 |
41 |
|
|
430,587 |
640,630 |
VI |
7 |
Closed Caucus |
3.5 |
4 |
|
|
1,126 |
1,970 |
PR |
60 |
Closed Caucus |
30 |
33 |
|
|
211,518 |
384,578 |
CA |
475 |
Modified Primary |
239 |
267 |
|
|
2,848,183 |
5,066,993 |
MT |
21 |
Open Primary |
13 |
15 |
|
|
130,301 |
182,421 |
NJ |
126 |
Modified Primary |
61 |
68 |
|
|
615,885 |
1,141,119 |
NM |
34 |
Closed Primary |
18 |
20 |
|
|
87,870 |
149,379 |
SD |
20 |
Closed Primary |
12 |
13 |
|
|
63,568 |
97,797 |
ND |
18 |
Open Caucus |
11 |
12 |
|
|
12,675 |
19,012 |
DC |
20 |
Closed Primary |
8 |
9 |
|
|
55,797 |
123,994 |
TOTAL |
2033 |
|
1057.5 |
1181 |
83 |
257,966 |
10,566,050 |
18,308,105 |
Target |
|
|
|
|
-7 |
-132,315 |
|
|
(Note: Washington is an estimate based on ‘08 reported turnout of 15.4% of registered voters and 2016 registered voter figures, all other data is from Green Papers)
Here are the total targets using the 538 demographic model as a starting point and adjusting targets upwards since we are at 87% of the 538 target after March 15:
|
HILLARY |
BERNIE |
HILLARY VOTES |
BERNIE VOTES |
PRE MARCH 15 |
1171 |
847 |
8,668,136 |
6,131,951 |
POST MARCH 15 |
852 |
1181 |
7,742,055 |
10,566,050 |
TOTAL |
2022 |
2028 |
16,410,191 |
16,698,001 |
NOTE: we actually ended up at 1169-849 for the pre-March 15th contests. From data on Green Papers, it seems one delegate in each of FL, TX, GA was re-assigned to Bernie. 538 and others haven’t picked this up yet.