Reuters national tracking poll of Democrats and Independents has Bernie leading Hillary by 5 points today. This is big poll, with a five day tracking average. Most respondents complete the survey online, but it is not an “online poll”.
Also, some good news from past contests. The Green Papers is showing that Bernie picked up 1 more delegate than initially reported in FL (73), TX (75) and GA (29) (compared to 538). AP’s tracker is not updated with yesterday’s results but agrees on TX and GA, they seem to have completely incorrect data for FL.
Here are the delegate leads going into last night and today, compared with delegates available:
|
Lead |
Available |
Lead as percent |
March 21 |
322 |
2033 |
15.84% |
March 23 |
294 |
1889 |
15.56% |
So with an assist from the re-allocation of delegates in prior races, Bernie has improved the ground he needs to make up. Before March 22, he had to pick up 15.84% extra delegates, now he needs to pick up a smaller percentage of the delegates remaining.
Last night and with Dems Abroad, Bernie picked up 85 delegates for a net gain of 26. That was off my target, but ahead of the 538 estimates for a tied race. So we caught up a bit, but need to do more.
STATE |
DEL |
TYPE |
538 TARGET |
SUBIR TARGET |
ACTUAL
DEL
|
ACTUAL VOTES |
VOTES NEEDED |
TURNOUT ‘O8 |
AZ |
75 |
Closed Primary |
41 |
46 |
31 |
163,398 |
279,456 |
455,635 |
ID |
23 |
Open Caucus |
14 |
16 |
18 |
18,638 |
14,764 |
21,224 |
UT |
33 |
Open Caucus |
19 |
21 |
27 |
61,331 |
83,620 |
131,403 |
Abroad |
13 |
Open Caucus |
6.5 |
7 |
9 |
23,779 |
12,441 |
23,105 |
Total |
144 |
|
80.5 |
90 |
85 |
267,146 |
390,281 |
631,367 |
All said and done, yesterday was a good day for Bernie. But it wasn’t great. Please get back to phone-banking so we can shrink that delegate deficit further!