There may be more polls out this weekend, but there is a fair amount of data, plus predictions for 3 states from Nate Silver.
Let me go one state at a time.
DE only one poll, by Gravis, just released, which has Clinton up 45-38. They do not have a very good track record. Most recently, they put out two polls in a week for NY in each case showing Clinton with only a 6 point margin, when she actually won by 16.
Clinton has been endorsed by the Governor.
I would not make percentage predictions based on the Gravis poll, but would say with a fair amount of certainty that Clinton will win, almost certainly by something more than what the poll shows. This is a closed primary.
RI — the only polls were done in February by Brown University, back to back.
2.17-21 showed Clinton trailing 41-48
2.22-23 showed Clinton leading 49-40
That kind of 16 point swing in such a short period raises real questions about methodology and reliability of the poll.
On the one hand, RI is a New England State, which might help Sanders. It is not clear the gun issue will hurt him as much as it does in CT. On the other hand, MA is between RI and VT, and Sanders lost MA. Clinton has been endorsed by the state’s largest newspaper, the Providence Journal, as well as by the Governor, both Senators, and the Secretary of State among others.
My gut says this is probably the best shot for Sanders, but on the other hand, I really do not see him winning it. I suspect a high single digit to low double digit Clinton win. This is NOT a closed primary, which is one reason I make this the best possibility for Sanders.
Connecticut — 538 predicts with Polls Only 88% chance of a Clinton win, with Polls Plus 92%, and shows a weighted polling average of 51-39.7, or Clinton +10.3%. Pollster.com’s polling average is only 49-43. She has been endorsed by the state’s largest paper, The Hartford Courant, by the Governor, both Senators and all 5 Democratic House Members. Given the Newtown issue, I fully expect not only a Clinton win but probably at least high single digits and maybe into low double digits. I make this slightly more likely than RI, because of Newtown and the gun issue. This is a closed primary.
Maryland — There should be no question of the results. 538 gives Clinton>99% in both Polls Only and Polls Plus. Every federal elected has endorsed her. She has also been endorsed by the State Comptroller, the former Attorney General, both from Montgomery County. Former Congressman and head of the NAACP Kweise Mfume from Baltimore has also endorsed her. There is a substantial African-American vote that is likely to be maximized, in part because of a simultaneous Senate primary including Donna Edwards (which does not mean she will beat Van Hollen), The weighted polling average from 538 is 56.8-32.5, +24.3%. Pollster.com has an average of 59-34, +25%. Given that Clinton carried neighboring Virginia 64.3-35.2, and Maryland is likely to see a higher proportion of the vote being African-American, there should be no doubt of a Clinton win of more than 20%, and probably >25%. This is a closed primary.
Pennsylvania — 538 makes it 97% Polls Only and 96% polls plus, showing a weighted polling average of 53-36.3, or +16.7%. Pollster.com shows a similar average of 54-36, or +18%. Clinton has the endorsement of the current Governor, Tom Wolf, and former DNC Chair /Governor of Penna / Mayor of Philadelphia Ed Rendell. She has been endorsed by the Philadelphia Daily News, and the Philadelphia Inquirer. She totally whomped Obama in 2008. Despite the fact that Sanders is currently outspending her heavily (as he did in New York by roughly a 2-1 margin) there is no evidence to suggest that this race will even close to single digits, much less to see Sanders pull out a win. This is a closed primary, although there are very few registered independents which means that people who might be independents in other states could be able to vote for Sanders.
In short, if one looks forward to the five contest on Tuesday, worst case scenario for Clinton would be 4-1. I actually think it will be 5-0, and will continue to think that unless I see more recent polling data showing something other than that is possible.
There are a total of 384 delegates for election. Here they are by state with the original targets set by Dave Wasserman before the primary season started.
Clinton Sanders
CT 55 27 28
DE 21 11 10
MD 95 53 42
PA 189 93 96
RI 24 11 13
Obviously Sanders would have to do much better than this to close the margin on Clinton. He will not. In fact, Clinton should do much better. The combined target that Wasserman had set was 195 delegates for Clinton
Even if I am somewhat high on expected margins for Clinton, even were she only to draw 55% of the delegates she would win 211- 173, or widen the gap by another 38 delegates.
In fact, I actually think she will probably net someplace in excess of 50: if she were to win only 58% of the delegates, she would net 222 and Sanders 162, or a net of 60.
I suspect that the Clinton camp is likely to be very happy with the results on Tuesday, and the Sanders camp will have some hard thinking to do.
Regardless, if you live in one of the five states, by all means get out and vote for the candidate you prefer.
If you are committed and able to do so, help turn out the vote for your candidate.
If you are financially able and so inclined, donate to your candidate.
Just be aware of the likely outcome.
Best wishes.