Another poll out of California has found a tight race between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) in the final week before the California Democratic Presidential Primary. According to the poll, which was released an hour ago, Clinton holds a narrow 2 percentage point lead over the Vermont Senator at 49% to 47%, a lead which is within the poll’s margin of error. This is a smaller lead than many polls were showing weeks ago, indicating that Sanders’ aggressive campaigning in the state (where he has camped out since May 21) may be having some effect.
Naturally, Sanders will need a far better result than a tie, or a virtual tie, if he hopes to meaningfully close the roughly 270 delegate gap with Clinton, and much, much more to gain enough pledged delegates to potentially become the nominee. However, a win in California would significantly strengthen Sanders’ hand at the convention, especially in aiming to change the party platform in November (and beyond).
Below are the detailed findings of the poll:
- Clinton holds a strong lead among California Democrats 57-40
- Clinton leads among absentee voters by an equal margin of 58-41
- Sanders trounces Clinton among Independents 68-26
- Sanders leads among male voters 54-43
- 80% of voters under 30 were found to support Sanders
- Clinton holds a slightly larger lead among female voters 54-41
- Sanders wins the under 45 vote by a 36 point margin, 66-30
- Clinton bests Sanders by 30 points among voters over 45 by a 63-33 margin
- Sanders trounces Clinton by a vast 44 point margin among first time voters, 72-28
- Sanders holds a narrow 3 point lead among California Latino voters, 49-46
For the hypothetical match-ups both candidates were found to have a strong lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump:
- Clinton 55, Trump 31
- Sanders 62, Trump 28
The NBC News/Marist Poll was conducted from May 29-31 among 557 likely Democratic voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points and a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.com.