On May 26, 2016, the day he clinched the nomination, I set the Bethesda 1971 Trump Withdrawal Watch (TWW™) at zero.
By last Friday, in the wake of Hillary’s speech, Trump U. revelations, racist “Mexican Judge” comments and veteran-stiffing, the TWW™ rocketed to 25%, as described in my diary: Will the Dog Catch the Car: The Bethesda 1971 Trump Withdrawal Watch Goes from Zero to 25% in a Week.
Initially, I thought I would update the TWW™ about weekly. But events of just this weekend compel an upward adjustment to 30% today. These include:
Trump’s extending the ”biased judge” universe to include Muslims
Failure of any Republican to defend him from HIllary’s speech or the Judge comments
Remarks like GOP strategist Rick Wilson’s that Republicans “own every crazy, vile chunk of word vomit that spews from his mouth.”
At least one poll showing a widening Hillary lead (Ipsos/Reuters)
Aside — best tweet on the “biased judge” comments: “Trump is OK with a woman Judge as long as she is at least a 7.”
The main factor will be the polls. Trump has only two things he can talk about semi-coherently: vicious attacks, and polls in his favor. If polls widen against him, he likely will not be able to handle it. (The supposedly narrowing polls last week suckered the likes of Ryan to come out for him — too late, guys — get used to the crazy, vile chunks of word vomit on your clothes.)
What do you think? Is it still zero? Is 30% way too high? Way too low? Please comment and take the poll.
Note: This series is just about whether he will withdraw — not whether the “establishment” will take it away from him. I don’t think that will happen.
Watch this space.
NOTE AND CAVEAT:
- None of the information or analyses presented in this Diary or in the TWWTM are intended to form the basis for any investment decision and no specific recommendations are intended.
- Bethesda 1971 expressly disclaims any and all responsibility for any direct or consequential loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising directly or indirectly from reliance on the TWWTM.
Last weeks poll results:
0-10: 34%
10-25: 27%
25-50: 22%
51-75: 9%
76-100: 8%
(Note: This diary’’s poll percentages changed to 10% increments)