1017 registered voters, 505 from cells the rest from land lines with live interviewers
Conducted June 26-28.
Full poll here
Looking only at the two-way numbers for this post
Trend line available
dates Clinton Trump margin
May 14-17 42 45 T+3
June 5-8 42 39 C+3
June 26-28 44 38 C+6
show that Trump has come down from when he had a brief bump after securing his nomination, Clinton had held steady but has crept up, and the net swing over 6 weeks is 9 points in Clinton’s favor
To its credit, Fox provides the data for trend lines on most of its questions. It did not release two questions from this poll
what is interesting is that Clinton has gone up relatively even as the party distribution of the sample has become less favorable:
D R I
26-28 Jun 16 42% 39 15
5-8 Jun 16 41% 35 20
Trump wins men 46-36 and whites 48-34
Clinton wins women 51-32 and blacks 87-3
I saw no numbers for Latinos or Asians separately
Surprisingly Trump’s best age group is 35-54, which he wins 43-32
Clinton wins all other age groups:
under 35 41-34
55+ 48-37
65+ 50-32 !!!!!
a couple of other notes: while a majority of voters, 66-32, think Trump is Intelligent (and Dems break 48-51 on that)
Look what happens if voters are asked if “hot-headed” describes Trump
Yes No
All 89 10
Dems 92 4
Repubs 82 17
Looking at how high that number is even for self-identified Republicans, that is a possible very successful line for a series of attack ads
Passing stricter gun control laws also seems to be a winning proposal. Note these numbers on whether it would make us more or less safe
More Less
All 52 24
Dems 77 6
Repubs 29 46
Indeps 49 20
It is worth noting that in VA in 2013, all 3 statewide Dems won, and all 3 ran on strong gun control. Even before recent events, in Virginia we are still affected by the mass shooting at Virginia Tech.
The poll does provide margins of errors for a variety of sub groups.
I did not, however, see Ns or %ages for demographic breakouts.
Again, I would view this as a positive poll for Clinton, and very much in line with the general consensus of recent polls, while showing a trend within this poll in her direction.