It has been a very long time since we’ve seen a poll of the Missouri Senate race, and PPP’s new release gives Team Blue some good news. Their survey gives Republican Sen. Roy Blunt just a 41-38 lead against Democrat Jason Kander, Missouri’s secretary of state. The poll gives Donald Trump a 46-36 edge over Hillary Clinton here, so it’s tough to argue that the sample is just too Democratic. Kander himself is barely known, with voters giving him an 18-20 favorable score. However, Blunt posts a weak 31-42 approval rating. Democrats and Republicans are both about equally unified behind their candidate, though independents favor Blunt 39-30.
Missouri is generally a conservative state and Clinton and her allies haven’t shown much interest in targeting its 10 electoral votes, so if Kander’s going to prevail, he’ll likely need to win over a number of voters who dislike Blunt but still plan to back Trump. That’s doable, but it won’t be easy, especially once Blunt starts to tie Kander to Clinton and President Obama, whom PPP finds are both very unpopular in the Show Me State.
So far, no major Democratic outside groups have aired ads here or made reservations for the fall. However, the GOP group One Nation recently spent $1.5 million on ads for Blunt while Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC close to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, reserved $2.5 million here for the fall, a sign that they agree Blunt is potentially vulnerable. Daily Kos Elections rates this seat as Likely Republican.
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