Leading Off:
● LA-Sen: Just a week ago, ex-KKK leader David Duke flirted with challenging House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, but Duke's now set his eyes on a bigger prize. On Friday, the final day of candidate qualifying, Duke announced that he would run for Louisiana's open Senate seat—and much to the dismay of the GOP, he's running as a Republican.
Duke was not at all reticent about revealing what kind of campaign he'll wage. While he insisted in a video kicking off his bid that he "believes in equal rights for all and respect for all Americans," Duke quickly made clear that, unlike the other candidates, he demands respect for "European-Americans." In case that wasn't direct enough, he went on to demand an end to "the massive immigration and ethnic cleansing of the people whose forefathers created America." Duke has enthusiastically backed Donald Trump's presidential campaign, and he took the time to brag that Trump "and most Americans embrace most of the issues that I've championed for years."
For all his notoriety, though, Duke joins the very crowded field seeking the seat left open by Republican David Vitter's retirement as a decided underdog. In Louisiana, all candidates of all parties run together on one ballot in November; in the likely event that no one takes a majority of the vote, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to a December runoff, regardless of party. Polls, none of which have included Duke to date, have consistently shown GOP state Treasurer John Kennedy easily grabbing the top runoff spot. It's a much tighter race for the second slot, with four main contenders vying for runner-up status: Republican Reps. John Fleming and Charles Boustany, and Democrats Foster Campbell and Caroline Fayard.
So it's unclear what kind of role Duke will have in this contest, or whether he has any shot of advancing to the runoff.
But one thing is certain: He's a massive headache for the GOP establishment. Both the NRSC's executive director and the chair of the Louisiana Republican Party predictably denounced Duke's candidacy, but Duke thrives on this sort of rejection, and he's shown an ability in the past to make life very difficult indeed for his party (much, in fact, like Trump himself).
Duke, who's always been open about his racist beliefs, first emerged as a notable figure in Louisiana politics back in the late 1980s, winning a state House seat in suburban New Orleans in 1989. He became nationally infamous when he ran for governor in 1991, making it to the runoff against Democrat Edwin Edwards, to the horror of Republicans everywhere. Though Edwards, a former governor, was a deeply flawed candidate with a history of corruption, he won in a landslide as Republican voters shunned Duke. (That campaign produced a legendary slogan: "Vote for the crook. It's important.")
Since then, though, Duke has struggled to gain political traction. In 1999, he came close to making the runoff for the old version of Louisiana's 1st Congressional District, but until now, that was the last time he tried running for office. And whatever adherents he may have had back in the '90s, they seem to have abandoned him in the intervening years: A February 2013 poll from PPP gave Duke an almost comically awful 9-76 unfavorable rating statewide.
But as we've seen with the rise of Trump, there are a still lots of very angry white people out there who respond with terrifying eagerness to a nativist, racist message. And while none of the Republicans currently running for Senate has attempted to link himself closely to Trump, Duke has gladly noosed himself to The Donald. If he gets enough attention, there might be a segment of voters out there ready to support him. And in a contest this crowded, a small but loyal group of supporters could send Duke into the runoff.
It's a lot harder to imagine Duke actually winning such a runoff. If he were to face off against a fellow Republican, the national and state GOP would back Duke's opponent, as would Democratic voters. However, in the less-likely event that Duke were to somehow find himself in a runoff against a Democrat, the situation would be considerably scarier. Republicans would still disavow him, of course, but Louisiana will vote for Trump over Hillary Clinton in November. Would it then turn around and vote for a Democrat over Duke in December? The world can only pray that the answer is yes.
Senate:
● IL-Sen: Major Republican groups have shown little interest in spending to defend Sen. Mark Kirk in this blue state, but the senator's allies are arguing this race is still winnable. Independent Voices for Illinois, a group set up by a former Kirk staffer, has released a mid-July poll from Basswood Research giving Kirk a 42-40 edge over Democrat Tammy Duckworth. An unreleased April poll had Duckworth up 43-42 margin. The sample gives Hillary Clinton a 46-33 edge in Illinois; Obama carried the state 58-41, though he may have benefited from a home state boost.
The only other poll we've seen in months was a Kirk poll from late March that had Duckworth up 43-40. A 2-point edge for Kirk in an unfriendly state where the undecided voters are likely largely Democratic-leaning isn't ideal, but at least it's a lead. The big question will be if this poll encourages the Republican groups that have left Kirk for dead to spend on his behalf, or if they continue to give him a wide berth.
● NV-Sen: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto is out with another ad tying herself to GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval, a prominent supporter of Republican foe Joe Heck. Masto says that as state attorney general, she sponsored over 40 bills passed by both parties. She highlights her support "for Gov. Sandoval's plan to help fund Nevada schools by making big corporations pay their fair share." She then argues that Heck sided with big business over Sandoval, which is certainly an interesting tactic.
Gubernatorial:
● IN-Gov: The Indiana Republican Party's central committee will pick a new gubernatorial nominee on Tuesday morning to replace vice presidential candidate Mike Pence, and the outgoing governor has taken sides in the contest. On Friday, Pence endorsed Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb, a former state party chair. Holcomb's main opponents are Reps. Susan Brook and Todd Rokita, with state Sen. Jim Tomes waging a longshot bid. It would be pretty embarrassing for Pence if his party leadership picked someone else after he publicly backed Holcomb. Then again, Pence is Donald Trump's running mate, so he should get used to being embarrassed. Retiring Sen. Dan Coats (whom Holcomb used to work for) and state Senate leader David Long also endorsed Holcomb's bid on Friday.
House:
● AZ-01: State House Speaker David Gowan, one of the many Republicans competing for this swingy seat in the Aug. 30 primary, is out with what appears to be his first ad. As some annoyingly bland music plays, the narrator says that under Gowan's leadership, "Arizona conservatives came together to tackle illegal immigration with SB 1070," and she also praises him for his economic policies and bills to help veterans. It's a pretty generic and boring ad, and it doesn't do much to help Gowan stand out from the crowd here.
Almost all of Gowan's legislative seat is in another congressional district, so he doesn't have a huge voter base here. It doesn't help that, despite his prominent position in the state government, Gowan has been a weak fundraiser, and his $194,000 warchest is smaller than any of his five main rivals. Whoever emerges with the GOP nod will face Democrat Tom O'Halleran, a former Republican state legislator, in a northern Arizona seat that Romney carried 50-48.
● FL-02: Attorney Mary Thomas is out with yet another TV spot ahead of the Aug. 30 primary for this safely red seat. This time, Thomas argues that "President Obama wants to force public schools to allow boys to use girls' bathrooms. It's outrageous, and unconscionable." Thomas then pledges to hold Obama accountable in Congress, which is an interesting promise given that, if she wins, Thomas would only have 17 days in the House before Obama leaves office.
While Thomas' primary foes, physician Neal Dunn and ex-U.S. Attorney Ken Sukhia, are also running as ardent conservatives, Thomas is waging the most far-right campaign. Thomas, a first-generation child of immigrants from India, recently went up with a spot where she bragged she "led the fight against Obama's plan to bring dangerous Syrian refugees to Florida," and she further embraced Donald Trump. Thomas also has the backing of the anti-tax group the Club for Growth, though they haven't aired any ads for her yet.
While Dunn has held a financial edge over Thomas throughout most of the race, she actually outraised him last quarter, and she currently holds a $459,000 to $313,000 cash-on-hand edge. Dunn is wealthy though, so he may outspend her on the homestretch. Sukhia only has $110,000 on-hand.
● FL-11: Justin Grabelle, the former chief of staff to retiring GOP Rep. Rich Nugent, is out with his first TV spot in this safely red seat. Grabelle says that his brother was onboard the USS Cole when it was attacked in 2000, and he argues that the country hasn't gotten any safer since then. Grabelle faces Rep. Dan Webster, who only represents about 18 percent of this seat, in the Aug. 30 primary.
● KS-01: The Aug. 2 runoff in this safely red seat is almost here, and tea partying Rep. Tim Huelskamp is out with a TV spot arguing he's an ardent conservative who's "never silent, never compromising." This has turned into an expensive contest, with Huelskamp outspending his opponent, physician Roger Marshall, $280,000 to $226,000 during the first 13 days of July. Huelskamp has $394,000 left for the final days of the campaign, while Marshall only $43,000 on-hand. However, outside groups on both sides have also been running ads here, so the incumbent won't have the airwaves to himself.
● MN-02: Businesswoman Darlene Miller is making use of her most prominent ally, retiring Rep. John Kline, in what appears to be her first TV spot ahead of the Aug. 9 GOP primary. Kline praises Miller's business success and argues that her work manufacturing precision parts "from everything from aerospace to missiles," shows that "[s]he knows that we must take a hard line against radical Islam." Miller faces two notable primary opponents, former conservative radio host Jason Lewis and ex-state Sen. John Howe, in this swingy suburban Twin Cities seat.
● NY-22: There's very little love lost between departing GOP Rep. Richard Hanna and Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, Team Red's nominee. Tenney challenged Hanna, a relative moderate, in the 2014 primary for New York's 22nd Congressional District, and she decided to seek a rematch the next year; Hanna announced he would retire a little while later. Hanna has made it clear that he will not back Tenney in the general election for this competitive Utica-area seat, which isn't a huge surprise given his record. (Hanna notably once encouraged women to donate to Democratic candidates.) Hanna spoke well of Democrat Kim Myers, a Broome County supervisor, and wealthy independent Martin Babinec, but he says he hasn't decided which one to support.
This area is friendly to Republicans downballot, but the conservative Tenney may have just pissed off too many establishment Republicans. Unsurprisingly, Tenney's late June primary depleted most of her warchest, and she has just $5,000 left to spend. However, Tenney has never been a strong fundraiser, and her would-be allies at the NRCC don't sound inclined to help her fix that issue. The group notably refused to include her in their Young Guns program for top candidates, even after she won the nomination, even though they added some very longshot candidates in other seats.
By contrast, the Democratic group House Majority PAC recently reserved $1.2 million in fall airtime. Thanks in part to a $240,000 loan, Myers has a strong $532,000 warchest. Babinec has given his campaign $1 million so far and while he has just $218,000 on-hand, he's capable of dropping more whenever he wants.
● WA-03: Two months ago, Democratic state Rep. Jim Moeller kicked off a bid against GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in this light-red seat, but it doesn't look like Moeller will put this district on the map. Moeller has raised just $16,000 during the contest, far less than he needs to give Beutler a real race.
● WA-04: In 2014, former NFL player Clint Didier lost the all-GOP general election to now-Rep. Dan Newhouse by just 51-49, and Didier launched another bid two months ago. However, this contest doesn't look like it will be particularly interesting. Didier has raised less than $8,000 during his entire time in the race, and he's done no self-funding apart from a negligible $200.00 loan. This eastern Washington seat is safely red and there's a chance that both Newhouse and Didier will advance to the general again, but it probably won't matter.
● WA-07: In an interesting development, the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund, one of the most active groups helping to elect LGBT candidates nationwide, has endorsed state Rep. Brady Walkinshaw in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Jim McDermott. What makes the move notable is that, as we've mentioned previously, this is the first federal race we're aware of to feature two credible gay candidates: Walkinshaw and King County Councilman Joe McDermott, both of whom are Democrats.
But there's also a third Democrat in the race, state Sen. Pramila Jayapal, and since this Seattle-based District is so blue, Democrats are likely to advance to the general election in next month's top-two primary. Given Jayapal's extremely strong fundraising—thanks to an assist from Bernie Sanders, she raised $753,000 in the second quarter—as well as the fact that she's the only woman running, there's a good chance she'll be one of them be one of them. And between Walkinshaw and McDermott, it looks like Walkinshaw would be the stronger option against Jayapal: Walkinshaw took in $403,000 while McDermott raised just $179,000. So if the Victory Fund wants to back the gay candidate with the best shot in November, that's probably Walkinshaw.
Other Races:
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: Democrat Paul Penzone previously released a very surprising poll showing him with a lead on Maricopa County's notorious Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and now a new survey from a Republican firm has confirmed those findings. Arizona-based pollster Lincoln Strategy Group, which says it has no involvement in the race, puts Penzone ahead 45-42, very similar to the 48-44 margin Penzone found in his own internal last month. Lincoln also has Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton 41-32 in the county, which is even more favorable to the GOP's presidential nominee than Penzone's poll.
Lincoln's managing director, Nathan Sproul, explained that he tested the race because he was "curious" to know whether Penzone's numbers were legit. Concluded Sproul, "I feel very confident their internal poll was accurate." And yet once again, Arpaio's camp only offered bluster in response. A spokesman decried "automated polls" and declared, "Clearly someone has an agenda here." That's a strange accusation to lob against a Republican pollster, but it's still something of a climb-down from Arpaio's previous claim that Penzone's data was "completely fabricated." Arpaio's campaign also swore in June that its internal polls "tell a much, much different story," but then as now, it still hasn't shared any results. That dog's failure to bark is deafening.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.