In a truly insane development, a federal judge just ordered that a Republican primary be held for New York's open 3rd Congressional District in October, after Some Dude Philip Pidot successfully argued that election officials had wrongly bounced him from the normal June primary, saying he had submitted an insufficient number of signatures to get on the ballot. It's a pretty hollow victory for Pidot, though, since he stands little chance of an upset against the guy who got him knocked off the ballot in the first place, state Sen. Jack Martins, who has 20 times as much money and the support of the entire GOP establishment.
But this extraordinarily late do-over will please Democrats, since it can only serve as a distraction to Martins, and one that he can ill afford. A new poll from the Global Strategy Group on behalf of the DCCC finds Martins badly trailing the Democratic nominee, former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, by a 52-36 margin. And just as painful are the presidential toplines, which show Hillary Clinton swamping Donald Trump by an almost identical 51-35 spread. Barack Obama only won this suburban Long Island district 51-48, so if these numbers are accurate, support for the top of the Republican ticket has truly cratered here.
The key thing to watch for, of course, is whether the GOP releases a contradictory internal poll of its own. So far, though, House Democrats have been putting out a lot of polls without seeing many responsive surveys. It could be that Republicans are simply playing their cards close to the proverbial vest, but that always comes with a downside, since GOP donors will worry if they think their candidates are getting crushed. And with the Trumpocalypse looming, reassuring the donor class is more important than ever for Republicans. So it may well be that they just don't have positive data to share.
Numbers like this mean we have a shot at taking back the House. Can you give $3 to help our endorsed House candidates?