Donald Trump is a force of his nature, a political storm unto himself, and although we scorn him, we ignore him at our peril. But how strong a storm has he become? We are in need of a method of rating the strength of the Trumpocalypse.
Thankfully, scientists at the National Weather Service have been working overtime, collaborating with ex-staffers of the Department of Homeland Security under President Bush the Younger, and out-of-work Republican operatives, to give us just what we need! The shorthand graphic version can be found above, with full explanatory text below the fold.
Trump Depression: Donald Trump maintaining high unfavorable ratings among the public. Pundits mourning state of political climate, blaming Trump on Democrats.
Trump Storm: Donald Trump polling worse than generic Republican. Slight chance of depressed Republican turnout.
Category I Trumpocalypse: Trump campaign neglecting to fund adequate ground game or advertising campaign. Increased likelihood of downballot Republican losses.
Category II Trumpocalypse: Evidence of increased ticket-splitting among typically Republican likely voters, who either skip the presidential line, or vote for somebody else, but remain loyal to the Republican party downballot. Record high turnout for Democratic demographics, with record low support for Trump.
Category III Trumpocalypse: Evidence of depressed Republican turnout. Registered voter poll models more favorable to Trump than likely voter models. Downballot Republican candidates start to pull away from Trump campaign. Downballot races with high exposure to key demographics shift toward Democrats in the race ratings.
Category IV Trumpocalypse: Evidence that downballot Republican candidates are being effectively linked to sinking Trump campaign, with similar poll numbers. Typically Republican voters less enthusiastic about election than Democrats and increasingly likely to not vote. Institutional support of the Trump campaign dries up.
Trumpageddon: The cat is in the dryer. Most elected Republicans withdraw Trump endorsements, but to little avail. A significant portion of typically Republican voters are still highly motivated to vote—for Democrats, up and down the ballot. Republicans likely to lose Senate and House. All Senate and House races shift one or more categories toward Democrats in the race ratings.
Trumperdämmerung: You don't even want to know.
Warning: Trumpocalypse storms can get stuck in an ever-escalating ego feedback loop, wherein negative Trump actions produce negative public reactions, resulting in additional ego-protective negative Trump actions. Trumpocalypse storms can strengthen an entire level in this manner within less than 48 hours.