Monmouth takes a look at Missouri’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, and finds a wide gap between the two. Republican Sen. Roy Blunt leads his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Jason Kander, by a 48-43 margin, but in the governor’s race, Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster has a sizable 51-40 advantage over Republican Eric Greitens, a retired Navy SEAL.
Interestingly, this same sample finds the presidential race splitting the middle, with Donald Trump clinging to a bare 44-43 edge on Hillary Clinton. While that’s a big departure from Mitt Romney’s 54-44 victory in Missouri four years ago, several other polls have shown a tight battle at the top of the ticket, and the HuffPost Pollster average gives Trump a 43-39 lead, so Monmouth’s numbers aren’t implausible.
But what accounts for the difference in Democratic fortunes in the two downballot contests? There are likely several reasons. For one, the governor’s mansion is open, since Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is term-limited, and open-seat races are almost always more competitive than when incumbents seek re-election. For another, Koster is better-known, having served two terms in the more high-profile post of attorney general; Kander has only been in office since 2013, and secretaries of state have fewer opportunities to make headlines. Finally, Democrats in red states often fare better in state-level races than they do in federal contests, simply because it’s easier to avoid the taint of association with the national party (the same is true for Republicans in blue states).
But despite Koster’s strong lead here, Republicans have signaled they have every intention of competing hard in the governor’s race. And it’s difficult to say whether Monmouth’s read is correct in the first place.
We’ve only seen two other recent general election polls, a Mason-Dixon poll taken just before the GOP primary that gave Koster a massive 52-33 lead, and a survey from GOP pollster Remington Research conducted for a local newsletter that found Koster up just 45-43. Needless to say, they can’t all be right, so more than anything, the flow of money from both sides into this race cements its status as a tossup.
Those same rivers of green haven’t been flowing into the Senate contest, though. Only three other polls have been released in the Missouri Senate race since March, and they’ve given Blunt similar leads. Still, Republicans have shown some concern here, as Karl Rove’s One Nation PAC has been advertising on the incumbent’s behalf. So far, however, it’s been one-sided, as national Democrats haven’t come to Kander’s aid yet.
And part of the reason for that may be out of Kander’s control. Despite the close polls, Clinton has continued to eschew campaigning in the Show Me State. She recently kicked off an $80 million multi-state ad blitz that will last until October, but Missouri was not on the list. It’s possible that Clinton could end up targeting Missouri’s 10 electoral votes later, of course, but until that happens, state Democrats can’t expect a tight race at the top of the ticket. Kander probably has a somewhat greater ability to win crossover votes than Clinton, but he likely needs her to compete here in order to dethrone Blunt.
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