Leading Off:
● MO-Sen, MO-Gov: Monmouth takes a look at Missouri's Senate and gubernatorial contests and finds a wide gap between the two. Republican Sen. Roy Blunt leads his Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Jason Kander, by a 48-43 margin, but in the governor's race, Democratic Attorney General Chris Koster has a sizable 51-40 advantage over Republican Eric Greitens, a retired Navy SEAL.
Interestingly, this same sample finds the presidential race splitting the middle, with Donald Trump clinging to a bare 44-43 edge on Hillary Clinton. While that's a big departure from Mitt Romney's 54-44 victory in Missouri four years ago, several other polls have shown a tight battle at the top of the ticket, and the HuffPost Pollster average gives Trump a 43-39 lead, so Monmouth's numbers aren't implausible.
But what accounts for the difference in Democratic fortunes in the two downballot contests? There are likely several reasons. For one, the governor's mansion is open, since Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon is term-limited, and open-seat races are almost always more competitive than when incumbents seek re-election. For another, Koster is better-known, having served two terms in the more high-profile post of attorney general; Kander has only been in office since 2013, and secretaries of state have fewer opportunities to make headlines. Finally, Democrats in red states often fare better in state-level races than they do in federal contests, simply because it's easier to avoid the taint of association with the national party (the same is true for Republicans in blue states).
But despite Koster's strong lead here, Republicans have signaled they have every intention of competing hard in the governor's race. And it's difficult to say whether Monmouth's read is correct in the first place, since we've only seen two other recent general election polls. A Mason-Dixon poll taken just before the GOP primary gave Koster a massive 52-33 lead, while a survey from GOP pollster Remington Research conducted for a local newsletter that found Koster up just 45-43. Needless to say, they can't all be right, so more than anything, the flow of money from both sides into this race cements its status as a tossup.
Those same rivers of green haven't been flowing into the Senate contest, though. Only three other polls have been released in the Missouri Senate race since March, and they've given Blunt similar leads. Still, Republicans have shown some concern here, as Karl Rove's One Nation has been advertising on the incumbent's behalf. So far, however, it's been one-sided, as national Democrats haven't come to Kander's aid yet.
And part of the reason for that may be out of Kander's control. Despite the close polls, Clinton and has continued to eschew campaigning in the Show Me State: She recently kicked off an $80 million multi-state ad blitz that will last until October, but Missouri was not on the list. It's possible that Clinton could end up targeting Missouri's 10 electoral votes later, of course, but until that happens, state Democrats can't expect a tight race at the top of the ticket. Kander probably has a somewhat greater ability to win crossover votes than Clinton, but he likely needs her to compete here in order to dethrone Blunt.
Senate:
● AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain is out with another TV ad with one week to go before his GOP primary with ex-state Sen. Kelli Ward. The commercial features several border agents praising McCain, with one of them insisting that "[n]ow is not the time to have a freshman senator."
● CA-Sen: Smith Johnson Research, a state pollster we don't hear from very often, is out with a survey of California's all-Democratic Senate race. They give Attorney General Kamala Harris, the favorite of national Democrats, a 41-15 edge over Rep. Loretta Sanchez, which is a lot larger than the still-formidable Harris lead other pollsters have found. Only 8 percent of respondents say they'll vote for neither candidate, which is also much smaller than what other groups have seen. Most of the poll is focused on Proposition 64, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state, and Politico says the survey was commissioned by a group opposed to the ballot measure.
● FL-Sen: With just a week to go before Florida's interminable primary, St. Leo University's new poll finds both party's establishment favorites comfortably ahead in their respective nomination contests. For Republicans, Sen. Marco Rubio has a huge 68-14 lead on wealthy businessman Carlos Beruff, who has now wasted $8 million of his own money in a futile quest to knock off the incumbent.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Rep. Patrick Murphy has a large 48-17 advantage over fellow Rep. Alan Grayson, in large part due to Murphy's much greater spending. There's been very little recent polling of this primary, but the two other surveys we've seen this month have both found Murphy on top, which helps explain why his campaign has shifted toward a general election footing.
But as for the general election, St. Leo goes utterly sideways. At the same time that they give Rubio a 46-38 lead on Murphy, they also somehow put Hillary Clinton up 52-38 on Donald Trump! These results imply that Rubio is, crazily, running 22 net points ahead of the top of his party's ticket. To put that in context, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp managed to run 21 points ahead of Barack Obama in 2012—and Marco Rubio is no Heidi Heitkamp. St. Leo's had some balky numbers in the past; wait for some better data in the future.
● IA-Sen: Early voting starts in Iowa at the end of September, and the HuffPost Pollster average currently gives Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley a 50-42 edge over Democrat Patty Judge. Judge and her allies need to move quickly before too many votes are off the table, and she's out with her first two commercials (here and here).
In her first spot, Judge stands in front of a cardboard cutout of the senator and argues that, while people like her used to be able to work with Grassley, Washington has changed him into a partisan obstructionist who has "turned his back on Iowa." In her other commercial, Judge holds up that Grassley cutout and declares that "if you don't think that Washington has changed Chuck Grassley, try and ask him." It then features various people asking the cutout various questions: The most effective probably is the woman asking, "If you get your way in defunding Planned Parenthood, where am I going to get my cancer screenings?"
The campaign only says the ads "are part of an initial six-figure ad buy." Judge only had $228,000 on-hand at the end of June and so far, national Democrats haven't aired many ads against Grassley.
● IL-Sen: A few days ago, GOP Sen. Mark Kirk had the genius idea to say, "We can't have the president of the United States acting like the drug dealer-in-chief." Kirk may not see the political peril of comparing the nation's first black president to a drug dealer in his home state, but Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner has a bit more common sense. The Chicago Tribune caught Rauner's reaction to hearing Kirk's about Kirk's comments, and it was priceless:
Asked Monday to weigh in on U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk's recent characterization of President Barack Obama as the nation's "drug dealer in chief," Gov. Bruce Rauner literally threw up his hands.
"I heard something about that," Rauner said. "I don't want to comment on that."
Kirk was infamously referring to $400 million the U.S. paid to Iran earlier this year as part of a settlement that the State Department said was also used as "leverage" to ensure the safe return of five American prisoners held by the Iranians.
Kirk and his allies seem convinced that Iran is an effective line of attack against Democrat Tammy Duckworth, since Independent Voice of Illinois is out with two more commercials (here and here) doing some fear mongering on Iran and Syrian refugees. They're the type of ads you're more likely to see in a red state than in solid blue Illinois, but there may be a good reason for that. Independent Voice of Illinois only seems to have put $128,000 behind this latest round of commercials, meaning that they're likely targeting the more conservative parts of the state and avoiding the large and expensive Chicago market.
Meanwhile, Duckworth stars in a positive commercial. Duckworth describes how her father lost his job, and the family was forced out of their home. Duckworth declares that "[h]e didn't want a handout. He just wanted the chance to keep working." Saying she knows what tough times are like, Duckworth pledges to fight unfair deals that help China and wants to cut taxes for the middle class.
● IN-Sen: Democrat Evan Bayh is continuing to take advantage of his huge warchest to keep attacking Republican Todd Young. Via Politico, Bayh's new TV spot accuses Young of "sid[ing] with the tea party to shut down the government," and argues that Young also used $600,000 in taxpayer money for political mailings.
● NC-Sen: To the consternation of his fellow Republicans, Sen. Richard Burr is only now going up with his first TV spot. The commercial stars Raleigh pastor Kirby Jones praising Burr for helping economically disadvantaged children. Burr's Democratic opponent, ex-state Rep. Deborah Ross, recently went up with her first commercial as well.
● NH-Sen: Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte is out with a new commercial that features her standing in a batter's box, bat in hand, and hitting pitches from a guy wearing a "False Attacks" cap. Ayotte tells the audience, "I'm out here knocking down every lie, because New Hampshire deserves better." As the pitcher, now wearing a "Distortions" hat (we'd pay to see a match between the Concord False Attacks and the Nashua Distortions), Ayotte continues to hit the softballs and says she's "batting for good paying jobs, to protect Social Security and Medicare, and help families pay for college."
As the Washington Post points out, North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp ran an incredibly similar ad during her successful 2012 Senate race. Of course, there probably isn't a huge bloc of New Hampshire voters out there who care about the sanctity of campaign ads.
● PA-Sen: An outside group from each side is going up with a new spot in Pennsylvania's Senate race, where polls show a tight contest. One Nation is launching a $1.1 million spot for Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, and while so many of their other ads are painfully boring, this one is anything but. The commercial opens with gunfire as a voice shouts, "Shots fired! Officer down!" The narrator then lauds the police and argues that "a new government rule makes it harder for police to get access to life-saving equipment." He then praises Toomey for fighting to change that.
On the other side, End Citizens United is also up with a $1.1 million ad. Their commercial shows an animated Toomey as the narrator explains, "In Washington, Senator Toomey makes choices. Like fund education? Or tax breaks for the super-rich and corporations? Hint … millionaire Toomey chose the tax breaks." As he speaks, the Toomey caricature is shown dropping an apple and book and hoisting a bag of money in the air with his other arm. The narrator goes on to accuse Toomey of blocking reforms that would require billionaires like the Kochs to reveal where their money comes from, as Toomey is shown blocking a door with his body.
● WI-Sen: Democrat Russ Feingold is out with another spot hitting Republican incumbent Ron Johnson on student loans, and this time it uses Johnson's own words against him. Johnson is heard saying "it's just kinda free money … young people don't really necessarily understand finance." And no, Feingold isn't taking Johnson's words out of context. At that same 2015 event, Johnson argued that college students are taking too long to get a four-year degree because "loans are actually pretty easy to get, and college is a lot of fun." The rest of the commercial argues that too many Wisconsinites have student loans, but Johnson wants to eliminate them and keep interest rates high.
Gubernatorial:
● NC-Gov: Back in May, Fox News' Chris Wallace pressed Republican Gov. Pat McCrory on his support for North Carolina's anti-LGBT HB2, which requires individuals to use restrooms in government buildings that correspond with the sex shown on their birth certificates rather than the gender they identify with. Wallace asked McCrory how many people had "been convicted of using transgender protections to commit crimes in bathrooms" in the last five years. McCrory admitted none had.
Wallace then wondered why, "if there's not a case of transgender people going in and molesting little girls," McCrory wouldn't simply "let it go" and stop defending the law. McCrory rejected Wallace's argument, saying "I haven't used that at all," meaning he hadn't raised the specter of sexual assault as a justification for the law. HB2 wasn't about safety, McCrory insisted, but rather "an expectation of privacy that all of us have had for years."
That was three months ago. Now, facing difficult re-election prospects against Democrat Roy Cooper and a deeply unpopular Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, McCrory has decided that HB2 is about safety after all. McCrory's newest TV ad features a sexual abuse survivor named Gina Little, who delivers this address directly to the camera:
"At nine, I was molested by a teenager. When I found out that President Obama and Roy Cooper want to force schoolchildren to share the same locker room, shower and restroom with someone who claims to be the opposite sex, I was horrified. Gov. McCrory knows this is not about discrimination, money, or politics. He's standing up for us under extreme pressure and doing what's right. Our governor is on our side."
Little's ordeal was horrific, but as reporter Tom Bullock of WFAE observes, it has no connection to HB2. Little was not assaulted by a person claiming to be transgender in a public facility but rather by her own brother, at home. We should be doing everything we can to prevent terrible crimes like these, but not even a supporter of HB2 could claim that the law would have prevented Little's abuse. That McCrory would even try to is shameful in the extreme.
● VT-Gov: The RGA is out with their second general election ad, and they're still going positive for Lt. Gov. Phil Scott. The spot stars a small businesswoman praising Scott as someone who "knows what it takes to run a small business and create jobs."
House:
● FL-01: State Rep. Matt Gaetz has aired most of the ads ahead of next week's primary for this safely red Pensacola seat, but Politico reports that Citizen Super PAC, which has one of the most Orwellian names in American politics, is up with a TV spot attacking Gaetz.
The commercial is not available, but Matt Dixon writes that, like some mailers the group has also paid for, it "tries to compare Gaetz to Clinton without pointing out any real ties. It highlights some of the same connections from the mailer and at the end of the ad says, 'He really is just like Hillary Clinton.'" There is also no word on the size of the buy. Citizen Super PAC is primarily funded by Connecticut hedge fund manager George Fox, but it's not clear why he's taking sides in this race.
● FL-18: When we first came across this disturbing web video, we were startled to learn that its source was not the North Korean Ministry of Propaganda but rather Florida Democrat Randy Perkins. But our confusion was understandable: The bizarre video consists of a completely fake news broadcast, featuring a "reporter" standing in front of a bank of monitors (just like in a real newsroom!) who then delivers an "update" on what Perkins has been up to. Breaking news alert! "There's nothing better than seeing the excitement on kids' faces as they prepare to start the new school year, and no one knows this better than Randy Perkins." This is some hard-hitting stuff!
The "reporter" goes on to describe Perkins how Perkins had a "busy weekend" hosting barbecues ("with pony rides") and giving away backpacks to school kids, as still photos (but oddly no video) of the events scroll by. She then reads a lengthy quote from Perkins that appears on-screen and concludes with an encomium to the candidate and his support for education. The whole thing is incredibly strange, and we've never seen the likes of it before—at least, not in this country.
● FL-23: A recent independent poll gave Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz a 50-40 lead a week ahead of the Democratic primary, and well-funded law professor Tim Canova is hoping to make up enough ground in time. Canova is out with two new ads (here and here).
In his first spot, Canova accuses Wasserman Schultz of taking millions from the sugar industry while they pollute the state. The narrator in his second ad argues that, as chair of the Democratic National Committee, Wasserman Schultz "was forced to resign in disgrace for tipping the scales of democracy at the national level." She continues by saying that the incumbent supports sketchy donors like the sugar industry and "predatory lenders who exploit the poor," as well as bad trade policies.
● ME-02: The liberal group End Citizens United announced a few weeks ago that they were launching a $200,000 TV ad against freshman GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin, and the spot is now available. The narrator asserts that Poliquin "voted for a Medicare voucher scheme, and to force seniors to pay thousands more, potentially boosting insurance company profits by billions. He'd even force seniors to pay more for prescription drugs."
● MI-08: As expected, state election officials turned back a Republican challenge and allowed Democrats to swap in prosecutor Suzanna Shkreli for actress Melissa Gilbert, who pulled out of her race against GOP Rep. Mike Bishop back in May, citing health issues.
● NH-01: Rep. Frank Guinta faces a tough Sept. 13 GOP primary with businessman Rich Ashooh. Guinta is out with his first ad, and he's decided to go on the offensive and hit Ashooh before the challenger attacks Guinta on his campaign finance scandal. The narrator accuses Ashooh of saying that Al Qaeda and the Taliban were "'not an Islamic threat', just like Obama." The commercial goes on to insist that, just like the president, Ashooh is open to a "conversation with Iran," and argues that he directed $2 million "to liberals like Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi." The GOP nominee will face ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in this swing seat.
● NY-01: Democrat Anna Throne-Holst is up with her first spot in the general election with freshman GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin. Throne-Holst argues that in tough times, Washington is "wasting our tax dollars on giveaways to big corporations and the wealthy." Throne-Holst continues by saying she fought for the middle class when she was a town supervisor, and concludes by declaring that the same thing is needed in Congress.
● NY-19: Republican John Faso's wife stars in his first general election ad in this competitive upstate seat. Mary Frances Faso insists that her husband is frugal, and brags that he helped eliminate a huge deficit and cut spending in the state Assembly. As she speaks, John turns the house thermostat down, only for Mary to turn it back up, a process that repeats itself again. It's cute, though it sends the message that Faso is so cheap, he'll cause discomfort to everyone around him to save some cash.
● TX-23: This 51-48 Romney district is home to Texas' only competitive congressional race, and the San Antonio Express-News reports that both parties have made new fall reservations here. The DCCC has reserved $1.16 million in fall TV time to help ex-Rep. Pete Gallego regain his seat from freshman Republican Rep. Will Hurd; their allies at House Majority PAC reserved $852,000 back in May.
The paper also reports that the NRCC has reserved a total of $2.1 million in airtime, which is about $600,000 more than their previously announced reservation. The conservative group House Leadership Fund also recently announced that they were investing $800,000 into the seat. We've added the new information to our continuously updated chart.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and Stephen Wolf.