Economist/YouGov: Clinton +3. Down from +6, +7 in the last two polls.
Florida: Trump +2. All the other polls are a week old at least, other than that rubbish poll that showed Clinton +14. No way is she leading by that much, especially considering the same poll had Rubio up 8. Rubio is 22 points ahead of Trump? No way. The Florida Atlantic poll (Trump +2, Rubio +5) is far more plausible. How inconceivable is it, really, that Trump would get 40% of the Hispanic vote, and 15-20% of the black vote, in Florida? Mitt Romney got 40% of the Florida Hispanic vote. And George W. Bush posted numbers like that among blacks. Van Jones has been saying for months that Trump could win that much of the black vote. Trump’s pitch to blacks this week was clumsy, but if it works, who the hell cares, other than people like we who never vote GOP anyway?
CNN: Virtual dead heat in NC, Trump leading in Arizona, outside the MOE.
PPP: Clinton +9 (40-31) in New Mexico. She should be winning a state like that by double digits, same as Obama did twice. And she should be getting more than a measly 40% of the vote.
Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton +1 in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two must-win states for her. Only +2 in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, the latter of which approaches the must-win category.
538 gives the two Florida pollsters C+ ratings, but CNN, PPP, Reuters/Ipsos get good marks, and should be taken seriously.
What Trump is doing is working. The media are describing him as normal and the dupes are lapping it up. The polls are tightening. Sure, we can cling to the national Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Clinton up 12, but that’s one poll. So’s the Economist/YouGov? Yes. But point is, the polls are tightening. Clinton leads? Yes—for now. We saw in July what a steady drumbeat of negative coverage can do. The race could be tied, or we could be losing, by early next week.
I was feeling decent for most of this month, but I’m starting to really worry again. Any ideas for how to right the ship? And I’m not looking to be told I’m overreacting because against Trump, we can’t afford to lose vigilance for one moment—not with the morons who compose the electorate and the media in the tank for Trump.