Every two weeks we take stock of the latest national and battleground aggregates, using Pollster.com. The story of this update is: equilibrium. Hillary Clinton’s national polling dropped a couple of points from her post-convention high, giving her a still-significant 7-ish point lead. But down in the battleground states where things really matter, no state shifted more than a single point in the last two weeks. In essence, we seem to have stabilized, and have a new post-debate baseline.
People start paying attention after the Labor Day weekend, and the debates loom large. But for now, we seem to have found our normal.
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
8/30 |
8/17 |
7/28 |
7/19 |
6/30 |
6/10 |
5/12 |
US |
C+6.6 |
C+8.6 |
C+1.3 |
C+2.5
|
C+7 |
C+4.6 |
C+3.6 |
AZ (11) |
T+2 |
TIED |
TIED |
TIED |
C+1 |
C+1 |
C+3 |
CO (9) |
C+8 |
C+7
|
C+5 |
C+5 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
FL (29) |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+3 |
C+2 |
C+6 |
C+2 |
C+4 |
GA (16) |
T+2 |
T+1 |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+3 |
T+4 |
T+5 |
IA (6) |
C+2 |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
MI (16) |
C+8 |
C+8 |
C+6 |
C+6 |
C+8 |
C+8 |
C+11 |
MO (10) |
T+4 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
T+6 |
T+3 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
NC (15) |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+3 |
NV (6) |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+2 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
NH (4) |
C+7 |
C+6 |
C+5 |
C+4 |
C+6 |
C+7 |
C+10 |
OH (18) |
C+2 |
C+2 |
TIED |
C+2 |
C+3 |
C+1 |
C+3 |
PA (20) |
C+7 |
C+7 |
C+3 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+7 |
VA (13) |
C+9 |
C+8 |
C+5 |
C+5 |
C+3 |
C+4 |
C+13 |
WI (10) |
C+9 |
C+9 |
C+8 |
C+9 |
C+10 |
C+12 |
C+12 |
In case you’re wondering, that’s a 341-191 Clinton Electoral College victory (with Nevada’s 6 EVs unassigned).