On Tuesday, voters in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island will cast ballots for their state’s downballot primaries in the final primary night of 2016. New York will also host its primaries for state and local offices, including the state legislature (the federal primary was back in June). Below is our look at the key races to watch. The first polls close in most New Hampshire towns at 7 PM ET and as always, we’ll be liveblogging all the results at Daily Kos Elections and tweeting as well. Polls in Delaware and the remaining parts of New Hampshire close at 8 PM ET.
● NH-01 (R): A year ago, Republican Rep. Frank Guinta’s career looked kaput. In May of 2015, the FEC ruled that Guinta had illegally accepted a $355,000 campaign donation from his parents in 2010, during his first campaign for Congress. Prominent New Hampshire Republicans like Sen. Kelly Ayotte publicly demanded that Guinta resign, a call he completely disregarded when he decided to seek re-election. However, Guinta’s war chest took a huge hit after he paid a fine to the FEC and repaid his parents, and donors were reluctant to help him replenish it.
A funny thing happened, though. Despite widespread hostility toward the incumbent from the GOP establishment, which feared that a damaged Guinta would cost them this swingy seat, a strong challenge failed to materialize. Businessman Rich Ashooh, who narrowly lost to Guinta in the 2010 primary, answered the call, but surprisingly, Guinta's intra-party detractors never seemed to rally behind him.
Indeed, even with Guinta’s financial problems, Ashooh only outspent him $76,000 to $72,000 from July 1 to Aug. 24. And while several top GOP operatives formed a super PAC to help Ashooh back in April, it spent barely a pittance on his behalf, and even the big-talking Ayotte never endorsed Ashooh. Public polling has been virtually nonexistent, so Guinta could, for all we know, still be in poor shape, but Ashooh may just be too weak to take advantage of his problems. Democrats would be delighted if that winds up the case, since Guinta would offer plenty of fodder for ex-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who’s seeking a rematch. Daily Kos Elections rates the general as a Tossup.
● NH-Gov (R & D): Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan chose to challenge GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte rather than seek another two-year term, and both parties have competitive primaries to succeed her. On the GOP side, state Executive Councilor Chris Sununu, a member of a pedigreed New Hampshire political family, initially looked like the frontrunner. However, Sununu’s campaign didn’t scare off Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas, who has decisively outraised him. This has mostly been a low-key race, but the negative ads began in the final weeks.
Gatsas is arguing that Sununu is insufficiently conservative when it comes to Common Core education standards, and he’s blasted Sununu for casting a decisive vote that restored state funding to Planned Parenthood. Sununu recently hit back and argued that under Gatsas, crime and taxes rose in New Hampshire’s largest city. Two state legislators are also in: State Rep. Frank Edelblut has used his personal wealth to outspend his rivals, while state Sen. Jeanie Forrester doesn’t have many resources. We haven’t seen any polling here in months.
Things are quieter on the Democratic side. Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern has outspent Mark Connolly, the former state securities regulator, and Van Ostern has more labor support. Ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand is also in the mix, but he’s raised and spent very little and hasn’t held office in years. We also don’t have any recent polls here, though Van Ostern looks to be the establishment choice and possible favorite. We rate the general as a Tossup.
● DE-AL (D): Democratic Rep. John Carney is retiring to run for governor, and three notable Democrats are competing to succeed him in a safely blue seat that takes up the entire state. Former state Labor Secretary Lisa Blunt Rochester, who has done some self-funding, outspent her opponents in the final weeks of the race. If she wins, Rochester will be the first woman and the first African American to represent the state in Congress. Former gubernatorial aide and veteran Sean Barney, who was Team Blue’s 2014 treasurer nominee, has also been airing ads, and he’s getting help from VoteVets on TV. State Sen. Bryan Townsend says he’s chosen not to air commercials. We haven’t seen any polling here in months.