taken from examining the complete details/crosstabs of the poll.
This is unweighted, according to McClatchy. Nevertheless their sample seems quite reasonable.
In each demographic they provide the percentage each of the national population, registered voters, and likely voters using their approach (which as expected also includes previous voting patterns).
Their model of likely voters is Dems +5 37-32-30 with Republicans in the middle
on gender, it is 54-46 female to male, which basically matches the last two presidential cycles
the one cautionary is on racial makeup of the sample, which is 67% White, 11% Black 12% Hispanic, and 10% other. Most projections do assume a white share of less than 70% based on demographic changes, but usually more in the 69% range.
If you are worried that the foregoing means that Clinton’s margin might be overstated, you should consider what it has to say about education
White non College 33
White College 35
Non White non College 18
Non White College 14
Total non-College 51
Total College 49
I think given demographic changes and the fact that higher education represents a greater likelihood of voting, this might represent an offset of the racial makeup by overstating slightly the share that will be non-college educated. In either case, both demographics are reasonably close to expectations.
Obama has an approval rating among likely voters of 51-44. For the candidate support
Clinton supporters approve of Obama 93-5
Trump disapprove 7-90
Here it is worth noting that Obama’s approval ratings are now consistently above 50%, which is usually very much to the advantage of his party. He will soon be out 2x a week campaigning forcefully for Clinton.
There’s more.
Overall, the Right-Wrong direction numbers are 35-59
Note the difference by race:
White 29-67
Black 62-30
Latino 48-43
Support by party id — D — R — I
Clinton 94 7 40
Trump 4 87 38
In theory Trump could somewhat draw a bit more of the Republicans, but that he is also trailing among independents should be a big red flag for his campaign
Looking to the impact electorally, the split by region is also interesting
Region Clinton Trump
Northeast 57 35
Midwest 44 46
South 43 48
West 54 32
This seems to match pretty well what we are seeing in state polls, that Trump does very well in the South, holds his own in the Midwest, but gets clobbered in the states in the NE and W — although remember those last two figures include two very big states in which Clinton has large leads, NY and CA respectively.
Figures by Race
Race Clinton Trump
White 37 53
Black 93 3
Latino 74 16
Those results are around what we have seen in general.
When looking by age, the only group Trump wins is 60+, by 48-42, losing all other age groups by equivalent or larger margins, the largets being 18-29 which Clinton carriers 46-26! Looking ahead, that should scare the living daylights out of Republicans.
Clinton holds a strong advantage on most issues as well. Quoting from the article summarizing the poll
Clinton’s lead is built on her resume. She is winning because voters trust her more than Trump to handle immigration, fight terrorism and manage the nation’s economy, and think she has the experience to do the job.
The poll was taken Sept 15-20, meaning the impact of events this week are not included. What it does seem to indicate is that even the occasional domestic terror event, such as that in NY/NJ, is unlikely to change the overall shape of the race.
Now a very few thoughts from me.
First, in looking inside at the demographics, I am not attempting to “unskew.” This poll is unweighted, so the only influence would be how the likely voter screen is shaped. The one thing it might not fully account for is serious efforts being made by Democrats to increase registration both on college campuses and among Latinos, at least in certain swing states.
Second, again these are national figures, and we elected state by state. Seeing what the differences are by region seems to strongly match the trends we are seeing in state by state polls within the regions. Thus the Midwest is close with a narrow Trump lead in part because of how well he is doing in IA and OH (and of course MO). There is nothing that would provide a warning that Clinton is under threat of losing the base states. This poll still seems to reinforce the notion that Clinton is likely to hold almost all of the Obama 2012 states, which were 332 electoral votes. Looking at all polling data and all other information, the state she is most likely to lose remains Iowa, and she is possibly slightly more likely to pick up NC, although we will have to see how the impact of events in Charlotte play out.
And of course there are still debates. Trump has to demonstrate that he is acceptable both to consolidate more of the Republican electorate and to do better with independents. Absent that he has no chance of winning the electoral college.
We have now seen several national polls in a row showing Clinton with margins of 5 or more points in the 4 way among likely voters. Remembering the admonition about taking poll averages to level out any differences in methodology and models of the likely electorate, this still seems like fairly positive news for our side and troubling for Trump’s.
- the President continues to have strong approval ratings in a highly divided nation
- Clinton seems to have consolidated Democratic voters better than Trump Republicans
- her margins are now back to where they were before the pneumonia and “basket of deplorables” incidents which provided SOME negative press for a few days
- regardless of what voters may think about her on a personal level, when it comes to issues she is viewed as far more competent than Trump. He has not YET established himself as fully plausible as President.
Keep in mind the following
- Obama’s margins were about 7% in 2008, 4% in 2012. In those two elections he won 365 and 332 electoral votes, respectively.
- if the national margin is 7% or more, we should at least have a tie in the Senate if not a win. It is hard with gerrymandering and a poor job in recruiting candidates to imagine taking back the House unless the margin nationally approaches 10%.
- people are already voting. As of today, in person absentee voting is possible in Virginia so later today I will vote. As Democrats we should get in all the votes we can as soon as we can. In those states that allow early voting, encouraging and providing transportation can be one of the most effective ways of banking those votes.
Have fun.
SMALL UPDATE I forget to provide the gender gap
Clinton loses men 37-50
Clinton wins women 58-34
and remember — the gender split in the sample is 54-46 in favor of females.