Loras College surveys both of Iowa’s competitive congressional races, and they give the GOP good news in both seats. In eastern Iowa’s 1st District, Republican Rep. Rod Blum leads Democrat Monica Vernon 45-38 even as Hillary Clinton takes this seat 42-33. In the Des Moines area 3rd, Republican Rep. David Young leads Democrat Jim Mowrer 46-36, while Clinton has a 42-38 edge here. This poll was conducted at the same time that Loras’ statewide survey found Clinton and Donald Trump deadlocked 38-38, but these polls were done separately. (The statewide poll had a sample size of 491, while each House survey had more than 300 respondents.)
As we’ve noted in the past, Loras has produced some strange results since they opened their polling operation in 2014. However, neither House poll looks unreasonable. One month ago, Blum released a survey from the bizarrely named "the polling company, inc./WomanTrend,” which is run by Trump’s campaign manager Kellyanne Conway, giving him a similar 50-43 lead in the 1st. Vernon and her allies notably have yet to respond with contradictory numbers. Obama carried this seat 56-42 and Blum only narrowly won during the 2014 GOP wave, but this Loras poll also indicates that Blum is hardly as doomed as he originally looked.
The news is even worse in the 3rd. Over the last two months, two GOP polls and one other independent survey all gave Young a double-digit lead, and Democrats also have yet to respond with better numbers. Both parties are continuing to air ads in both Iowa seats, and the 1st may just end up being too blue for Blum, especially if Clinton’s poll numbers improve in Iowa. However, Democrats don’t have much room for error in the 3rd seat, which Obama carried 51-47, and all the data we have looks good for Young.