The political leanings of Florida's Latino population have been viewed as an anomaly nationwide for years, with conservative Cuban Americans forming the heart of the Latino voting bloc in the state. But a combination of changing demographics (e.g. the influx of Puerto Rican transplants fleeing economic conditions), generational shifts, and GOP defections has entirely reshaped the Latino vote. The New York Times writes:
Ten years ago, Republicans had a registration edge among the state’s Latinos — 37 percent were Republicans, 33 percent were Democrats and 28 percent independents, according to official figures. This year, the party lags among Latinos, with 26 percent registered as Republicans, 37 percent as Democrats and 35 percent as independents. And the independents increasingly lean Democratic, particularly among new immigrants and Puerto Ricans.
“The Hispanic vote in Florida was reliably conservative and now is becoming reliably Democrat,” said Fernand R. Amandi, a pollster who has extensively surveyed Latinos in this crucial swing state whose 29 electoral votes are very much up for grabs, and could determine the outcome of the presidential race.
The latest Latino Decisions poll from late August had Clinton winning Latino voters 62 to 27 percent. A more recent New York Times/Siena College poll of likely Latino voters showed Clinton leading Trump with a 40-point margin, 61 to 21 percent. Any way you slice it, Florida's Latino voters heavily favor Clinton in the presidential race as do the state’s black voters (82 to 4 percent), which leaves Trump entirely dependent on Florida’s white voters for a victory there. Clinton’s consistent lead in the Sunshine State has remained at almost exactly a two-point edge throughout September in the HuffPost Pollster aggregate of polls.
Patrick Murphy can defeat Marco Rubio with your help! If you live in Florida, click here to paint the state blue by helping to get out the vote.