If you watch North Atlantic cyclones obsessively, you may have noticed that they often turn harder north and northeast than earlier tracks predict. But this is anecdotal: there’s no law of nature preventing them from veering west or south, they sometimes take an unpredictable turn and end up slamming into more densely populated regions. It’s unclear at this point what Matthew really will do, but the storm does currently pose a risk to residents from Florida to DC and, with just a mild jag or jog, it could theoretically zero in on states farther north:
Officially, Matthew’s top sustained winds were at 115 mph as of the 11 pm EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center. This makes Matthew a low-end Category 3 storm. Matthew’s efforts to reorganize and reintensify on Wednesday afternoon and evening were been a mixed bag. Hurricane Hunters found Matthew’s eyewall partially open at times, and the top surface winds had yet to rebound significantly. On the other hand, the convective core of showers and thunderstorms surrounding Matthew’s center has intensified and expanded, and Matthew’s central pressure began dropping late Wednesday night, a sign that the enhanced convection may be helping Matthew to regain intensity. An 11:03 pm Wednesday fix from the Air Force hurricane hunters found that Matthew had finally closed off its eyewall, and the central pressure had dropped to 959 mb. In its 11 pm EDT discussion, NHC noted that Matthew’s eye--once again distinct on satellite imagery--has contracted to about 17 miles wide, another sign of strengthening. It may take until midday Thursday for any substantial drop in Matthew’s pressure to result in a stronger wind field.
NHC predicts that Matthew will again hit Category 4 intensity by Thursday evening.
After record breaking storm seasons a decade ago, rife with monster hurricanes, some people have come to think of less intense storms as no big deal. These are mostly people who have never sat through a Category 1, let alone anything more powerful.
A direct hit by a Cat 2 or a near miss by a Cat 3 can be devastating. These kinds of storms can cause random flash floods and spin-off tornadoes, knock down large trees and send them careening into other structures with the momentum of a runaway truck, peel roofs off houses like a can of sardines, and sometimes tear walls down to the foundation. Those who escape the worst damage may face a week or more without Internet, phone, running water, power, or emergency services in a dank, waterlogged dwelling.
It’s not just the intensity, duration matters and the scope of destruction matter, too. If you’re near this storm’s projected path, at least make tentative plans on where you will go if and when it narrows down and takes a bead on you and yours. Keep abreast of the latest forecast at the National Hurricane Center.