as you can read in this press release.
As you can see from the trend information, this represents a 4 point increase in the margin since the September 26 release of the Q national poll.
That margin is in the 4-way. Head to head it expands to 50-44, an increase from what was also a 1 point margin.
In the four-way race, women back Clinton 53 - 33 percent as men back Trump 49 - 37 percent. White voters go Republican 51 - 38 percent while non-white voters go Democratic 63 - 18 percent.
The biggest shift is among independent voters, who go from 42 - 35 percent for Trump, with 15 percent for Johnson September 26 to 46 - 32 percent for Clinton, with 10 percent for Johnson today. Republicans back Trump 87 - 5 percent while Democrats back Clinton 89 - 3 percent.
American likely voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton over Trump 48 - 27 percent, with 11 percent for Johnson. Clinton leads 47 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 49 years old. Voters 50 to 64 years old go 48 percent for Trump and 43 percent for Clinton. Voters over 65 years old are split 46 - 46 percent.
Some details on the poll
1,064 likely voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.
RACE
White 68%
Black 12
Hispanic 11
Other/DK/NA 9
GENDER M48 F52 (that may be low — could well be 46-54)
34% of sample is Whites with a college degree
33% Whites w/o college degree
(there is a rounding issue, which is why not 68%)
I did NOT see crosstabs
Commentary — this matches what we are seeing in other public polling data. I expect this trend to be continuing, in part because there is a HUGE amount of of political chatter about what is being seen in private polling done for both presidential campaigns and a lot of the Senate campaigns.
SMILE!!!
UPDATE can now provide some explanation, thanks in part to the work of others:
So, that has some cross-tabs on voter preference:
Clinton #s first
Whites w/college degree 50-45
whites w/o degree 32-63
WHite men 33-63
White women 48-46
Whites overall 41-54
Non Whites 73-21