Leading Off
● Colombia – peace agreement referendum (Oct. 2)
Colombia has been at war with the revolutionary leftist FARC rebels since the mid-1960s in a conflict that has claimed the lives of more than 200,000 people and displaced millions more. President Juan Manuel Santos had been negotiating with FARC for four long years trying to finally achieve a peaceful resolution, and the end appeared to be in sight. The two sides recently reached a cease-fire and an agreement where FARC would disarm, certain crimes would be forgiven, and many FARC rebels and their supporters would rejoin the democratic political process.
However, that's not to be. Colombian voters narrowly rejected the terms of the peace agreement by a razor-thin 50.2-49.8 percent margin in a referendum, despite polling predicting its passage. Both Santos and FARC have pledged to maintain the cease-fire agreement, but the president warned that the cessation in hostilities is set to end on Oct. 31. Despite the momentary calm, the vote has wreaked havoc on the peace process and could lead to a resumption of the conflict, setting back any future peace agreement for years. In a bitter twist of irony, Santos won the Nobel peace prize for his efforts just days after the failed vote.
Sadly, turnout was just a mere 37 percent of registered voters, and a hurricane that struck Colombia's north, an area that supported the agreement, might have dampened turnout enough to determine the outcome. Votes like this are why referendums often do a disservice to actual democracy, because instead of delivering a broad mandate to legitimize a solution to a contentious issue, this vote yielded a divisive, low-turnout result that appeared to have significantly swung based on Santos' personal unpopularity rather than a detailed appreciation of the issues.
Santos hails from the center-right Social Party of National Unity, but his main opponent in this vote was his predecessor, former President Alvaro Uribe of the right-wing Democratic Center party. Uribe leads not just his party but an eponymous conservative movement commonly called Uribism. He's long taken a hard line against FARC and argued that the accord treated the rebels too leniently. It was an argument that seemed to work, as voters in the central part of the country surrounding the capital of Bogota, which has seen less violence compared to outlying regions, tended to oppose the agreement while those on the periphery were in favor of it. (This excellent map from the BBC and accompanying commentary illustrate what happened very well.)
It is true that leftist rebels have participated extensively in the drug trade and murdered many political opponents—but so have the right-wing paramilitaries who opposed them, and the government even massacred FARC partisans who tried to lay down their arms and join democratic politics in the 1980s. Indeed, this conflict is by some accounts the longest ongoing civil war in the world and the last military conflict in Latin America, which was a major proxy-war battleground during the Cold War.
Santos and the rebels will likely continue trying to reach a new deal, but with the Uribist opposition invigorated by their recent success and Santos' personal vulnerabilities, it could be almost impossible for him to propose new terms that would both satisfy the rebels and succeed in another referendum. Some FARC rebels could start defecting to the much smaller leftist offshoot ELN, which itself had been preparing to move towards a peace agreement if the one with FARC had succeeded, or even toward purely criminal groups. Santos' second and last term expires in 2018, and Colombia could be just one wrong step or one new president away from a tragic resumption of violence.
Europe
● Austria – president (Dec. 4)
Austria's initial runoff took place on May 22, but it was later annulled after mail ballots were improperly counted early, and a do-over was scheduled for Oct. 2. However, that election also had to be postponed to Dec. 4 after another problem with mail ballots cropped up, this time because they were coming unglued when sent out to voters. The Green-backed candidate Alexander Van der Bellen barely won the first vote by 0.7 percent against the far-right Freedom Party candidate Norbet Hofer, and polls show a revote just as closely contested. Austria mostly uses a parliamentary system, and if he wins, Hofer says he wants to force early parliamentary elections where the Freedom Party could surge to first place.
● Croatia – parliament (Sept. 11)
Croatia's recent center-right governing coalition collapsed less than a year after the 2015 elections due to infighting and a corruption scandal, and polls showed the center-left Social Democratic Party poised to regain power. However, the conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) pulled off an upset win. But just like in 2015, HDZ and its minor-party allies lack a majority and will almost certainly have to govern with the small kingmaker Most, the more centrist party with whom it had so many disagreements the last time.
However, after HDZ's past leader resigned amid a conflict-of-interest scandal, the party replaced him with Andrej Plenković in a pivot towards the center and away from the extremist right-wing nationalism it had previously catered to. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic leader, ex-Prime Minister Zoran Milanović, had himself pandered to those nationalist elements in a move that appeared to backfire. The victorious parties still have yet to formally secure a governing coalition, and last time it took months only to produce a nonpartisan prime minister. Still, it seems likely that a more moderate HDZ, Most, and a handful of minor parties or independents will cobble together a majority.
● Georgia – parliament (Oct. 8)
Georgia has some of the most established democratic institutions of any former Soviet republic outside the Baltic states. Seventy-three parliamentary seats are elected in single-member districts while 77 are elected through proportional representation, but following a redistricting effort to level out the grossly unequal population disparities between some districts, there have been accusations of gerrymandering. President Giorgi Margvelashvili's big-tent, center-left Georgian Dream coalition easily retained control of parliament, fending off a challenge from the center-right United National Movement, while Georgia's party system has become increasingly more stable than in previous elections. Both factions are broadly in favor of closer ties to the European Union and NATO, while openly pro-Russian parties are relatively marginalized, in contrast to many former Soviet republics
● Germany – Berlin state elections (Sept. 18)
Germany's slate of 2016 state elections, which we've covered throughout the year, wrapped up in the capital city of Berlin, where the center-left Social Democratic Party ("SPD") stayed in first place but will have to cobble together a new coalition after both it and its current partner, the center-right Christian Democratic Union ("CDU"), lost seats. All six prominent German parties (SPD and CDU, plus the left-wing Green Party, the far-left Left Party, the centrist/liberal Free Democratic Party ("FDP"), and far-right Alternative for Germany ("AfD")) crossed the five percent threshold necessary to win seats. What's more, five parties (all save the FDP) ended up with a double-digit vote share, so no two parties have enough seats to govern jointly. That will result in an unstable and uncomfortable three-party coalition, of which there are a few options.
The obvious choice, and the one the SPD will pursue first, is a left-wing coalition with the third-place The Left and the fourth-place Greens. The Left has never been in a coalition government at the national level or in states in the former West Germany, but they have occasionally participated in coalitions in former East German states. (Berlin, though it's in the country's east, is a bit of an odd duck thanks to its divided history.) The SPD could also drop The Left from coalition talks and add the CDU, which would put them in the ideological middle of the coalition, but the Greens have said they do not want to enable a SPD/CDU alliance. An even less likely option would be for SPD to ally with CDU and FDP, but few believe that the SPD would actually go through with such a right-leaning coalition if it didn't have to.
Meanwhile, the virulently anti-immigrant AfD continued its strong showing across Germany, winning 14 percent of the vote in Berlin, but all major parties have refused to even consider any coalition involving them. Germany will now turn its attention to national elections scheduled to be held in the fall of 2017.
● Hungary – migrant quota referendum (Oct. 2)
After regaining power in the 2010 parliamentary elections, Prime Minister Viktor Orban's national conservative Fidesz party shifted towards a harsh brand of right-wing populism and used its unprecedented two-thirds majority to dramatically reshape the constitution. They quickly shredded Hungary's liberal democratic institutions, rigging media coverage and the electoral system in their favor, while suppressing opposition parties. Unlike many tinpot dictators, Orban still maintains broad popularity with the electorate and—shamefully—acceptability among European Union elites.
Thanks to the financial crisis and an ensuing disastrous term in office, the Hungarian left became thoroughly discredited, so the bigger threat to Orban in recent years has disturbingly come from the outright neo-fascist Jobbik party, which has the support of roughly one fifth of voters. Mindful of his right flank, Orban has built a southern border fence and led the charge against German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Syrian refugee resettlement program. Even though very few refugees were slated to come to Hungary, Orban scheduled a referendum to reject the European Union's quotas, which seemed like it would pass in a landslide.
Indeed it did, but thanks to a boycott from the opposition, turnout was only 40 percent, well below the 50 percent needed to make the vote legally binding. That made it the first time conservatives have lost an election in Hungary in a decade, dealing Orban a stinging rebuke. As an illiberal anti-democrat, Orban has pledged to use his right-wing majority to legally amend the constitution to implement his preferred policy, but without the veneer of democracy, his continued leadership might command even less legitimacy among the European elites who set the quotas in the first place.
● Iceland – parliament (Oct. 29)
Icelandic voters will likely head to the polls in October for early elections after the international Panama Papers data leak brought down the country's sitting center-right prime minister back in April. That scandal prompted historic protests, and the opposition demanded immediate early elections, but the right-of-center coalition government, led by the Progressive Party, insisted on waiting until the fall. That gambit appears to have paid off, with recent polling showing the center-right dramatically recovering from its spring nadir. However, Iceland is still in for a political earthquake, because traditional parties have hemorrhaged support to the radical anti-establishment Pirate Party and the even newer pro-European Union center-right Viðreisn party (which translates roughly as "revival").
Polling during the heat of the crisis showed the pro-transparency Pirates in a dominant position to lead the next coalition with over one-third of the vote, but they have subsequently shed significant support and now poll closer to 20 percent. That's still good enough to keep them neck-and-neck for first place with the right-wing Independence Party, which is a member of the incumbent governing coalition along with the Progressives. The Pirates, the center-left Social Democratic Alliance, and the left-wing Left-Green Movement might still be able to form a majority in what will be a must-watch election given the global implications of the Pirates' radical platform on issues like copyright reform.
● Lithuania – parliament (Oct. 9 & 23)
Lithuania will elect a new parliament in October, with half the seats decided by party-list proportional representation and the other half via single-member districts with a runoff if no one wins a majority. The current coalition consists of the center-left Social Democratic Party, the more socially liberal Labour Party, and the right-wing populist Order and Justice. Polling shows that Labour has collapsed while the Greens have surged into second place, but unlike most left-leaning Green parties in Europe, the Lithuanian Peasants and Green Union is more of an agrarian centrist party. It could be in a prime position to lead a center-right coalition or perhaps even support the Social Democratic center-left.
● Montenegro – parliament (Oct. 16)
Montenegro's center-left Democratic Party of Socialists has governed ever since the fall of communism in the early 1990s. Although it hasn't held an outright majority since 1998, this successor to the defunct Communist Party has dominated every government coalition since then. Now, though, it faces its most serious challenge to date. Following independence from Serbia in 2006, the party has steered Montenegro in a pro-European Union direction, and it has been invited to join NATO this year. NATO membership has become a highly divisive issue in a country where many among the quarter of the population who are Serbian still harbor pro-Russian and pro-Serbian sentiments, especially after NATO bombed Serbia during the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. The fractured opposition has accused longtime leader Milomir Đukanović of governing as an autocrat.
● Spain – parliament (possible December elections)
Last month, Spain seemed poised to hold a rare third election in a year after no party coalition arrangement could muster a majority following two previous tries, but that outcome now seems in doubt after the center-left Socialist leader Pedro Sanchez resigned following an internal party coup effort. The prospective coalition of the conservative People's Party and the smaller center-right Citizens was just six seats shy of the 176 needed for a majority, but Sanchez had steadfastly refused to allow the right to form a minority government. (The Socialists would have needed to abstain in order to permit such a coalition to go through.) Many in Sanchez's party feared the effects of a third straight election and preferred conceding, but Sanchez, fearful of the party's hemorrhaging support on its left flank to the leftist Unidad Podemos ("UP," and formerly just Podemos), had remained obstinate until the very end.
Once the overwhelming preference on the left, the Socialists lost droves of voters to upstart leftist parties like UP since the 2008-2009 financial crisis and just suffered their worst-ever performance in recent regional elections. That undoubtedly hurt Sanchez with his fellow party members, as did his rumored effort to cobble together a majority with the regional separatist parties who hold the balance of power between the left and right. Spain still has until Oct. 31 to form a government, and if the new Socialist leadership delivers enough abstentions, conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy could stay in power leading a minority government. With polls showing the right gaining in support since June's early elections, the Socialists just might be better off avoiding a third election anyway.
● United Kingdom – Labour leadership election (Sept. 24)
As expected, British Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn comfortably defeated challenger Owen Smith among Labour voters by a 62-38 margin and remains the leader of the party, likely at least until the next general election scheduled for 2020. (A little over 500,000 Labourites cast votes.) YouGov conducted a poll of Labour members who participated in the election, finding that Smith won Scotland and nearly won London but was wiped out across the rest of England and Wales. Smith won with 18-to-24-year-olds and did well with those 60 and over, but he suffered huge losses among working age 25-to-60-year-olds. Corbyn also dominated among members who joined the party after Labour's disastrous 2015 general election, while Smith won a small victory among members who had been members prior to that point. Overall it does seem like Corbyn did take a small hit for his perceived ambivalence about "Brexit," but he otherwise maintained strong support throughout most of his party.
But as we discussed in August, Corbyn's victory doesn't resolve the conflict within Labour. Instead, it merely returns affairs to "cold war" status between, on the one hand, Corbyn and his supporters on the left, and on the other, everyone else to the right of them. Corbyn doesn't really have any control over so-called "backbench" Labour MPs (members of parliament who don't serve in the cabinet, or in the case of an opposition party, the shadow cabinet), and while they will likely offer soothing words in the wake of this election, don't expect it to last.
Corbyn will also face struggles consolidating the party leadership outside Parliament. Labour's National Executive Committee, the party's 35-member governing body, is split between Corbyn supporters and opponents. Just recently, the NEC added two new representatives (one from the Scottish Labour Party and one from Welsh Labour), both of whom appear to be anti-Corbyn, thus diluting his influence. This has put on ice Corbyn's proposals to have the same party membership that just re-elected him also elect shadow cabinet positions, among other proposals. Given the current state of the party, Corbyn isn't going anywhere but neither are his opponents.
For better or worse, they'll have years to argue about it, as Tory Prime Minister Theresa May has reiterated that she will not call early elections. While she can always change her mind, it would be a shock for elections to occur before 2018, when redistricting changes that will benefit the Tories at the expense of Labour are scheduled to go into effect.
Middle East/North Africa
● Cape Verde – president (Oct. 2)
Incumbent President Jorge Carlos Fonseca won a landslide victory for a second term in this tiny island nation west of Africa. In March, his center-right Movement for Democracy regained control of parliament from the center-left African Party for the Independence of Cape Verde after 15 years in opposition; the newly dethroned party didn't field a candidate for president in October elections.
Grab Bag:
● Brazil: Brazil's Congress recently impeached and removed President Dilma Rousseff, and her leftist Workers' Party suffered big losses in local elections, as did the centrist pro-business party of new President Michel Temer, who succeeded Rousseff. Meanwhile, former Speaker Eduardo Cunha, who hails from Temer's party and led the impeachment charge, was expelled from Congress over his own corruption issues.
● Maps: This neat interactive feature from Our World in Data shows the evolution of political regime types around the globe over the past two centuries. You can watch as the end of colonialism and the rise of democratic regimes spread around the world, with notable waves in certain decades.
● Philippines: Last spring we wrote about how the Philippines elected their own Trump-like populist strongman, and sadly, President Rodrigo Duterte has lived up to expectations. In the midst of a war on drugs that has left several thousand dead, Duterte shockingly likened himself to Hitler to fantasize about the mass murder of three million drug addicts, comments that drew international outcry and led to a bogus non-apology from Duterte.
● Russia: Russia recently held legislative elections, but President Vladimir Putin's country is far from a true democracy, and his supporters maintain a chokehold on power. Scholar Ben Noble explains how the country's political system and even the opposition parties are bent to empower Putin and stifle popular dissent.
The Daily Kos International Elections Digest is compiled by David Beard and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from Daniel Donner, and is edited by David Nir.